What the Zero-Rate Era Left on Your Shelf

Charles UrquhartAdvisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

Rates have been back for a while now. There are many items on our shelf that were built for a time when rates were at zero. That’s the point. If something was built to earn a return during a time when the bond market wasn’t paying that return, the question now is whether that item still has a role with the bond market again paying yield.

Let me provide a couple of numbers. On October 15, the 10-year Treasury yielded 5.10%. The 1-year yielded 4.49%. The investment-grade corporate index yielded 5.86%. In the summer of 2020, the 10-year was at about half a percent.

Let’s look at this in dollars. A million invested in the 10-year in the summer of 2020 would earn about $5,000 a year. A million invested in the 10-year today earns about $51,000. One of these is a nice vacation and the other is a salary.

I spent the majority of my time in the retail bond business during the zero-rate period. The problem during that time was fairly simple. A bond would yield about 1.5%, while a retiree would need about 5%. There had to be a solution, and Wall Street was quick to provide it.

The plain bond did not fare very well in this situation. Its problem from a seller’s perspective was that it paid the investor and no one else.

There was no marketing budget, there was no wholesaler, and there was no conference in its honor. No one won a sales award for putting a client in a 10-year Treasury.