Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.23% in August and was up 4.25% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.08% month-over-month and up 0.80% year-over-year.
Bond markets continue to adjust to a more hawkish policy environment following the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike.
Retail investors buy corporate bond ETFs expecting steady coupons and ballast against stock market volatility. Traditionally, fixed-income portfolios were anchored by defensive issuers like banks, industrials and utilities.
The U.S. economy remains resilient despite headwinds including sticky inflation, trade instability and rising geopolitical tensions. State and local government tax revenues have followed suit and have posted solid growth, aided by robust equity market returns.
This week, there are a few things that we need to pay attention to: the large move in interest rates and what it means (and more importantly, what it doesn’t mean!); and the constant barrage of doom and gloom on energy and AI. Let’s jump in.
The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is more than a regional milestone — it is a shift in competition among U.S. capital markets. After months of anticipation, the TXSE reached a major landmark last week as Texas Capital’s TXS and OILT ETFs became its first primary listings, followed a day later by PWRX as the first new ETF to launch on the exchange.
Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will sit down this week to hash out a plethora of thorny issues from trade to Taiwan. One thing both sides agree on: neither can afford to tap the brakes on AI.
Early this week, I was in Los Angeles at the All-In Summit along with about 4,000 others, including tech investors, money managers and entrepreneurs. The ticket wasn’t cheap, but it was well worth it.
I typically avoid business books when I am on vacation. But I made an exception during our sojourn last month for Andrew Ross Sorkin’s 1929. Nearly a century after the Great Crash, that era is still being studied for lessons that might be relevant in the current day. The potential for financial instability is ever-present.
The Federal Reserve increased rates by 25 basis points this week, a remarkable turnaround with major implications for portfolios of all kinds; one underexamined impacted area may be annuities.
US and Chinese officials offered upbeat assessments of their talks on artificial intelligence, trade and investment, signaling a mutual desire to steady ties ahead of this week’s summit between leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Pacing isn't pausing. Calls to "pace the frontier" mean slowing the release of powerful artificial intelligence (AI) models to test and control them better, not halting development or spending.
Nominal retail sales were up 1.2% month-over-month and up 6.0% year-over-year in August. After adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.8% month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
Much about the global AI panic — could it really “kill us all by the end of the decade”? — is genuinely new, and thus extra-scary. Then again, the specter of human-engineered extinction is hardly novel; we have about eight decades of experience in thinking about it.
As ETF strategies continue to expand into new asset classes and structures, the SEC has been taking a closer look at how some of these products fit within existing regulations.
ETFs are increasingly breaking down the wall between public and private markets. Asset managers are finding ways to “ETF-ize” private equity and pre-IPO holdings — giving retail investors liquid, fractional access to growth opportunities historically restricted to institutional and accredited buyers. As companies stay private longer, the most explosive growth phases of high-profile startups often occur off public exchanges.
The Federal Reserve concluded its sixth meeting of the year by raising the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4%.
One fear over the past few days is that an artificial-intelligence slowdown, whatever that looks like, might harm the stocks of chipmakers. If AI development takes a breather, the insatiable appetite that has propelled component makers to unprecedented heights would dissipate. Will AI companies still need all those data centers?
Last December we published Riding the Wave: The Anatomy of Booms & Bubbles. In it, we argued that the AI spending boom would continue through 2026 without tipping into ‘bubble’ mania, and that the right posture was to stay overweight stocks while favoring US assets. Nine months on, we think that call has aged well.
Single-stock leveraged ETFs were unusual when they first arrived in the U.S. market just four years ago. Today, it might be hard to find a stock without one. Issuers are aggressively pushing beyond megacap tech into niche equities, pre-IPO registrations, and even experimenting with leverage levels and frequency.
An essay from Anthropic PBC’s Dario Amodei saying artificial intelligence companies must “pace the frontier” has got the world talking about a slowdown in their most cutting-edge research. OpenAI’s Sam Altman and SpaceX’s Elon Musk publicly agreed with the post.
Most coverage of Trump Accounts treats them as a parenting question, or a discussion comparing them to 529s. For founders and business owners the analysis of them is slightly more nuanced.
Demand for fixed income ETFs hit a historic high-water mark in September. Investors and advisors turned to fixed income ETFs at a record-breaking pace, driving 2026 net inflows of $446 billion past all-time levels with months to spare. The massive tide of capital arrives at a critical juncture.
Is the AI infrastructure buildout one big trade in credit? So far, the market seems to think so. Spread dispersion – differences in borrowing costs among issuers – across the financing chain remains limited despite sharp differences in underlying risk. This contrasts with equities, where performance has become increasingly differentiated.
Last week, the refining margin on European gasoil, the benchmark that sets the price of diesel and heating oil across much of the world, closed at roughly $94 a barrel over Brent crude, according to Bloomberg data. That figure is normally somewhere between $12 and $18.
Many market participants have highlighted how value investing is back as the equity market rally broadened out beyond high-flying growth names. However, taking an index-based approach to the value style requires looking under the hood. Not all value ETFs are created equally.
America’s data center boom will need $110 billion to build 45 gigawatts of new power generation through 2030, according to an analysis by Moody’s Ratings.
Equity markets generally moved lower as rising yields and energy prices created a more challenging backdrop. Higher yields can be particularly difficult for long-duration equities, where a greater share of expected cash flows sits further into the future.
While the name is new, Syzygy is not. Syzygy, formerly Research Affiliates, will extend our multi-decade sub-advisory relationships in asset allocation and long-only active equities and expand into other active diversification strategies in the coming quarters.
The midterm election season has entered its final stretch, and Wall Street is busy drawing up game plans for a range of scenarios. Yet, in a fortuitous turn of events, the best outcome for markets is also looking like the likeliest one.
On Friday, the August U.S. employment report surprised to the upside, with 162,000 jobs added during the month. Year to date, the labor market has shown impressive resilience, with hiring also becoming more balanced across sectors than in previous years.
Apple Inc.’s $570 billion summer surge is saddling new Chief Executive Officer John Ternus with high expectations heading into the company’s most anticipated event in years: the unveiling of the foldable iPhone on Wednesday.
Labor Day signals more than summer’s end. It marks a return of focus to the economic and market forces that will shape the remainder of the year. From resilient earnings and record AI spending to rising bond yields and the midterm elections, there is no shortage of forces shaping the market outlook.
I love ETF milestones and round numbers almost as much as I love watching football. There is something deeply satisfying about watching a fund hit a clean asset threshold. Crossing $500 million, $1 billion, or $2 billion in assets under management (AUM) is more than just a psychological victory. It signals real validation from financial advisors, provides greater liquidity, and lowers the risk of fund closure. Plus, as a fun bonus this week, our three featured funds all start with the letter B!
Around 2020, Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook returned from a trip to Asia unusually energized about a new product category: foldable phones.
Before I discuss why I disagree with the “AI bears,” I want to state that I respect their opinions, have evaluated their concerns, and have simply derived a different set of conclusions. That is an important statement, because this particular group of “AI bears” includes some of the sharpest risk minds in the business, and they have been early to almost every warning that later mattered.
My goal with this letter will be to not interrupt your long weekend too much. But there are some things that are happening that are important. My basic thesis for quite some time has been that we are in a Muddle Through Economy, which I’ve always meant that to me the GDP will grow slightly south of 2% over time.
If you were Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang and you were laying out a few sector-shifting artificial-intelligence trends that could take shape over the coming months and years.
Anthropic PBC is set to finalize an expansion of its revolving credit facility to $15 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, clearing a hurdle before the artificial intelligence firm’s public filing for its highly anticipated IPO.
Emerging-market (EM) equities have benefited enormously from the global AI investment boom. But headline market gains show that EM leadership has become concentrated in a handful of mega-cap technology stocks. In our view, today’s EM benchmark is far less diversified than many investors assume, creating opportunities to seek differentiated sources of return.
By enhancing the input that goes into so much of what we do—intelligence—AI’s potential to drive higher economic growth is enormous. But with fears of the technology's unintended consequences affecting the pace and depth of adoption, the promise of long-term gains must be set against more immediate risks.
House poised to pass bill to avoid government shutdown, two new members set to join the House, Fed chair speech boosts rate hike possibility, and national debt hits $40 trillion.
The topic d’jure is that Kevin Warsh just gave his first Presser (Oh yes, we love that word) as new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and it was fascinating, although in fairness, I have a Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance streak in me that delights in what others might consider head-rolling minutiae.
It’s back-to-school season, and the ETF market is closing out a summer that proved anything but slow. August brought $180 billion in fresh net ETF asset inflows and saw the number of new ETFs coming to market cross 1,000 for the year. August also saw a barbell strategy against macro risks become a popular approach with ETF investors.
Highly concentrated US equity markets have been a consistent theme in recent years. Now, after the latest reconstitution of a major US equity benchmark, concentration is taking on a new form, with the Magnificent Seven’s grip loosening and semiconductor stocks gaining more influence. In essence, millions of passive investors received a new portfolio without making a single decision.
In Part I of Indexing Redefined, the foundational strategies comprising Research Affiliates’ fundamental indexing methodology (RAFI) were introduced. With the baseline premise established, there is one myth to debunk: Some detractors may assume that RAFI is merely a niche value strategy.
This week, we take on the objection that scares people most: that AI and the data centers that run it are coming for their jobs. Let's separate what people currently believe from what the data currently shows, and then talk about why the jobs argument, even where it has merit, points toward building more data centers rather than fewer.
This week, our Portfolio Manager Olga Bezrokov sees tentative signs of improvement emerging in Europe, although she cautions that the recovery remains uneven across countries and sectors.
In markets that have faced multiple sources of uncertainty this year, small-cap stocks have quietly moved to the front of the pack. Unlike the S&P 500, where performance has been heavily influenced by changing AI narratives, smaller companies have seen earnings improve across a broader set of sectors that are more closely tied to the overall US economy.
Trade talks between Canada and the U.S. fell apart on Saturday, resulting in the Section 338 tariffs on a subset of Canadian goods taking effect. In response, Canada has pledged to implement
Earnings have built a strong foundation. As we wrote earlier this month, earnings have provided a strong foundation for stocks this year. With second quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 on track to exceed 30% (excluding private investment mark-ups) and analysts continuing to raise estimates, it's safe to say this season strengthened the fundamental case for equities.
When a typical business finds its supply chain costs have risen, it will absorb the increase to keep its customers happy. Nvidia isn’t a typical business. It enjoys gross profit margins of 75% and commands between 70% and 90% of the global market for artificial-intelligence chips.
Amazon.com Inc.’s Andy Jassy has begun making an audacious boast during conference calls this year. Though his company remains a top Nvidia Corp. customer, it’s also one of the world’s largest makers of data center chips in its own right.
Most of us try to be mindful not to put all our eggs in one basket. But the now-familiar concern that most portfolios are quite concentrated in a relatively small group of large US tech companies means that investors may still be doing just that.
Today, the backdrop for real assets has reset. Growth is returning, but in different parts of the market than many investors remember. While in the post-pandemic period performance was defined by scale, now it is the result of adaptability and having access to a broad array of organization sizes and business plans.
No doubt, AI can be an unnerving tool. But it isn’t magic, malevolent, or secretly sentient. With some reasonable rules in place, policymakers should be able to keep the bots in line, and unleash the benefits for everyone else.
Market exuberance returned to cryptocurrencies when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Wednesday the department would at least double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, triggering an upswing that forced traders to liquidate billions in short positions.
After recovering from the “tariff tantrum” that saw stocks of all sizes and styles bottoming out in early April of 2025, equities finished 2025 in admirable shape, carrying the positive momentum into 2026.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s profit plunged more than 75% after the Chinese company ratcheted up quarterly capital spending to almost $10 billion, aiming to safeguard its position in a fiercely competitive global AI arena.
The 2026 midterms could reshape control of Congress, raising the odds of divided government and near-term market volatility, but investors should stay focused on long-term goals.
Hedged equity as a liquid alternative uses an options-based equity strategy — specifically Swan Global Investments’ Defined Risk Strategy (DRS), in continuous operation since 1997 — as a permanent alternatives allocation that stays invested in the equity market while actively managing downside risk through LEAPS put options
With the US fiscal year 2027 (FY27) state budget season now largely complete, several important trends have emerged. Most states and local governments adopted their budgets without major delays or political impasses, an encouraging sign for two important credit considerations: governance and financial management.
The biggest political news of recent months is the rise of the Democratic Socialists of America. We suppose this started in New York City, with the election of Mayor Zohran Mamdani, but it has spread to Michigan and other states.
As private credit further cements its role as a primary source of corporate financing, it will be essential to balance opportunity with prudent risk management for long-term stability and sustainability.
Today’s market does not represent today’s economy. The ratio of market value dependent on future economic activity versus present activity has never been higher. These companies have earnings now, but those earnings stem from investments in the future, not present consumption.
Gone are the days of capital-light and cash-flow-rich technology businesses such as internet search, e-commerce and social media. The game now is artificial intelligence, and you had better have hard assets and deep pockets to play, the kind of money few companies have laying around.
So let’s do the work the timeline skips, starting with separating what actually happened from what the narrative needs you to believe. Then we’ll ask the only question that pays: should any of it change how you’re positioned this morning?
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s agreement to buy Neos Investments for as much as $2.25 billion marks a new front in Wall Street’s ETF battle: paying up for specialist firms that have found growth beyond the industry’s low-fee giants.
Royce Investment Partners: Co-CIO Francis Gannon examines the myth that rate hikes are bad news for US small-cap returns—and finds that history tells a different story.
While institutions have embraced private markets for decades, individuals have historically had limited access to these potentially valuable and versatile tools. Tony Davidow from Franklin Tempelton Institute demonstrates that private markets can be potentially valuable sources of growth and income during the accumulation and distribution phases of retirement.
The release of ChatGPT in 2022 ushered in the AI era. Since then, technology stocks have emerged as a key driver of market performance. The extraordinary gains have naturally sparked questions about whether the momentum can continue, particularly as technology companies invest heavily in AI infrastructure.
Life rarely stands still, and for families caring for a loved one with special needs, change can introduce both emotional and financial complexity. Marriage, divorce, the loss of a parent, an unexpected inheritance, or shifts in public policy may all significantly impact eligibility for benefits, long-term financial security, and family dynamics.
South Korea expects to deploy more than 1 trillion won ($707 million) of fresh capital into a new sovereign wealth fund targeting AI and other strategic industries next year, joining a global push by governments to mobilize investment and gain an edge in high-tech sectors.
Nasdaq Inc. agreed to buy off-exchange stock-trading venue LeveL Markets to expand its role in the equity market, according to people familiar with the matter.
For three years, clients have asked the same question: “How do I get into SpaceX or OpenAI before the IPO?” That question just changed tense.
What stock fund could be safer than a total U.S. stock market index fund with thousands of securities? That was my thinking for the last three decades, but things are changing.
US lawmakers from both parties are seeking to boost federal funding for quantum computing as China and other countries race to transition from research to deployment of the nascent technology across defense, intelligence and cybersecurity.
Fixed income markets continue to adjust to an evolving policy backdrop following last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
There is no one-size-fits-all individual investment strategy. We all have different needs. Once I decided I needed a portfolio that would work for today, I became convinced that a dividend growth portfolio should be the core of my long-term investment strategy. Not an addition, but the core.
After spending much of the year in the stock market doghouse over fears about their profligate spending on artificial intelligence, the world’s biggest technology companies are suddenly leading the way once again.
In this article, Russ Koesterich explains how the recent market rotation has pressured tech stocks while creating an attractive long-term buying opportunity.
Reflecting on the first half of 2026 provides a clear roadmap to strategize for the remainder of the year. Before that can occur, however, it’s imperative to check the pulse on the current state of the market and posit what may happen next.
High-net-worth investors and institutional managers continue to allocate heavily to muni bond ETFs to lock in attractive yields.
The greatest danger posed by AI is not the technology itself, but the race to deploy it before we know how to control it. The recent Hugging Face breach shows how seemingly minor human errors can be amplified by AI, underscoring the risks of treating safety as an afterthought.
New clients frequently arrive with portfolios that have been built over many years, often across multiple market cycles and advisory relationships. While these portfolios may have generated strong returns, they can also contain concentrated positions, legacy holdings or allocations that no longer align with the client's objectives.
Kevin Warsh considers fewer Fed meetings, the Fed holds rates steady, the Senate moves to avert a shutdown, a new BLS chief is confirmed, and midterms near.
Electricity has become a major global focus. It essential to powering the modern economy: regions with capacity will generate growth, while those without adequate supplies may be vulnerable to shocks.
As companies race to capitalize on the AI boom, water security is emerging as a material risk across the value chain. While data centers attract headlines, semiconductor fabrication remains one of the value chain’s most water-intensive activities, requiring reliable supplies of high-purity water.
In this article, I explain why baby boomers in target date funds (TDFs) should not feel lucky today or in the near future. There’s a 40% chance that the typical TDF will have at least one losing year during the next five years. These are bad odds, especially since retirement with dignity is at stake.
In the race to win a coveted role on the next mega US IPO and manage the ensuing riches, Wall Street’s wealth advisers are ramping up lending to founders and entrepreneurs based on the soaring values of their private companies.
Diversity & Inclusion
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.23% in August and was up 4.25% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.08% month-over-month and up 0.80% year-over-year.
What the AI Investment Boom Means for Bonds
Bond markets continue to adjust to a more hawkish policy environment following the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike.
Inside IG Bond ETFs: The Hidden AI Bet
Retail investors buy corporate bond ETFs expecting steady coupons and ballast against stock market volatility. Traditionally, fixed-income portfolios were anchored by defensive issuers like banks, industrials and utilities.
Municipal Bonds: Fiscal 2027 State Outlook
The U.S. economy remains resilient despite headwinds including sticky inflation, trade instability and rising geopolitical tensions. State and local government tax revenues have followed suit and have posted solid growth, aided by robust equity market returns.
Reversing Financial Repression
This week, there are a few things that we need to pay attention to: the large move in interest rates and what it means (and more importantly, what it doesn’t mean!); and the constant barrage of doom and gloom on energy and AI. Let’s jump in.
ETFs on TXSE: A Big Milestone for Y’all Street
The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is more than a regional milestone — it is a shift in competition among U.S. capital markets. After months of anticipation, the TXSE reached a major landmark last week as Texas Capital’s TXS and OILT ETFs became its first primary listings, followed a day later by PWRX as the first new ETF to launch on the exchange.
Xi and Trump Seek Safe AI Without Slowing the Race for Supremacy
Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will sit down this week to hash out a plethora of thorny issues from trade to Taiwan. One thing both sides agree on: neither can afford to tap the brakes on AI.
Why Big Tech’s AI Capex Is Now Outrunning Cash Flow
Early this week, I was in Los Angeles at the All-In Summit along with about 4,000 others, including tech investors, money managers and entrepreneurs. The ticket wasn’t cheap, but it was well worth it.
A Review of 1929
I typically avoid business books when I am on vacation. But I made an exception during our sojourn last month for Andrew Ross Sorkin’s 1929. Nearly a century after the Great Crash, that era is still being studied for lessons that might be relevant in the current day. The potential for financial instability is ever-present.
How Rising Rates Impact Your Annuities Portfolio
The Federal Reserve increased rates by 25 basis points this week, a remarkable turnaround with major implications for portfolios of all kinds; one underexamined impacted area may be annuities.
US and China Hail Talks as Positive Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
US and Chinese officials offered upbeat assessments of their talks on artificial intelligence, trade and investment, signaling a mutual desire to steady ties ahead of this week’s summit between leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Pacing the Frontier
Pacing isn't pausing. Calls to "pace the frontier" mean slowing the release of powerful artificial intelligence (AI) models to test and control them better, not halting development or spending.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales
Nominal retail sales were up 1.2% month-over-month and up 6.0% year-over-year in August. After adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.8% month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
The AI Panic Needs Some Nuclear Metaphors
Much about the global AI panic — could it really “kill us all by the end of the decade”? — is genuinely new, and thus extra-scary. Then again, the specter of human-engineered extinction is hardly novel; we have about eight decades of experience in thinking about it.
Novel ETFs: New Strategies Push Boundaries
As ETF strategies continue to expand into new asset classes and structures, the SEC has been taking a closer look at how some of these products fit within existing regulations.
ETFs Join the Pre-IPO Rush to Reach for Private Growth
ETFs are increasingly breaking down the wall between public and private markets. Asset managers are finding ways to “ETF-ize” private equity and pre-IPO holdings — giving retail investors liquid, fractional access to growth opportunities historically restricted to institutional and accredited buyers. As companies stay private longer, the most explosive growth phases of high-profile startups often occur off public exchanges.
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: September 16, 2026
The Federal Reserve concluded its sixth meeting of the year by raising the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4%.
Chipmaker Stocks Will Weather Any AI Slowdown
One fear over the past few days is that an artificial-intelligence slowdown, whatever that looks like, might harm the stocks of chipmakers. If AI development takes a breather, the insatiable appetite that has propelled component makers to unprecedented heights would dissipate. Will AI companies still need all those data centers?
Riding the Wave…and Minding the Undertow
Last December we published Riding the Wave: The Anatomy of Booms & Bubbles. In it, we argued that the AI spending boom would continue through 2026 without tipping into ‘bubble’ mania, and that the right posture was to stay overweight stocks while favoring US assets. Nine months on, we think that call has aged well.
Leveraged ETFs: From Megacaps to Micro Trends
Single-stock leveraged ETFs were unusual when they first arrived in the U.S. market just four years ago. Today, it might be hard to find a stock without one. Issuers are aggressively pushing beyond megacap tech into niche equities, pre-IPO registrations, and even experimenting with leverage levels and frequency.
Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Is Still On. And So Is the AI Race
An essay from Anthropic PBC’s Dario Amodei saying artificial intelligence companies must “pace the frontier” has got the world talking about a slowdown in their most cutting-edge research. OpenAI’s Sam Altman and SpaceX’s Elon Musk publicly agreed with the post.
Trump Accounts for Business Owners: Two Decisions, Not One
Most coverage of Trump Accounts treats them as a parenting question, or a discussion comparing them to 529s. For founders and business owners the analysis of them is slightly more nuanced.
Fixed Income ETFs Surge to All-Time Highs Ahead of Pivotal Fed Decision
Demand for fixed income ETFs hit a historic high-water mark in September. Investors and advisors turned to fixed income ETFs at a record-breaking pace, driving 2026 net inflows of $446 billion past all-time levels with months to spare. The massive tide of capital arrives at a critical juncture.
One AI Trade for Now, Many Trades Later
Is the AI infrastructure buildout one big trade in credit? So far, the market seems to think so. Spread dispersion – differences in borrowing costs among issuers – across the financing chain remains limited despite sharp differences in underlying risk. This contrasts with equities, where performance has become increasingly differentiated.
Cheap Drones Are Repricing Global Energy Markets
Last week, the refining margin on European gasoil, the benchmark that sets the price of diesel and heating oil across much of the world, closed at roughly $94 a barrel over Brent crude, according to Bloomberg data. That figure is normally somewhere between $12 and $18.
Under the Hood: Why Value ETFs Are Not Created Equal
Many market participants have highlighted how value investing is back as the equity market rally broadened out beyond high-flying growth names. However, taking an index-based approach to the value style requires looking under the hood. Not all value ETFs are created equally.
US AI Boom Needs $110 Billion of New Power Plants, Moody’s Says
America’s data center boom will need $110 billion to build 45 gigawatts of new power generation through 2030, according to an analysis by Moody’s Ratings.
There’s More Behind the Rise in Treasury Yields
Equity markets generally moved lower as rising yields and energy prices created a more challenging backdrop. Higher yields can be particularly difficult for long-duration equities, where a greater share of expected cash flows sits further into the future.
Alignment in the Time of Dispersion: Introducing Syzygy Asset Management
While the name is new, Syzygy is not. Syzygy, formerly Research Affiliates, will extend our multi-decade sub-advisory relationships in asset allocation and long-only active equities and expand into other active diversification strategies in the coming quarters.
Wall Street Is Betting On a Split Congress With Midterms on Tap
The midterm election season has entered its final stretch, and Wall Street is busy drawing up game plans for a range of scenarios. Yet, in a fortuitous turn of events, the best outcome for markets is also looking like the likeliest one.
What’s Driving the Rise in Global Bond Yields?
On Friday, the August U.S. employment report surprised to the upside, with 162,000 jobs added during the month. Year to date, the labor market has shown impressive resilience, with hiring also becoming more balanced across sectors than in previous years.
Apple’s Rally Pressures New CEO to Deliver on Foldable iPhone
Apple Inc.’s $570 billion summer surge is saddling new Chief Executive Officer John Ternus with high expectations heading into the company’s most anticipated event in years: the unveiling of the foldable iPhone on Wednesday.
5 Key Forces Shaping the Market Outlook After Labor Day
Labor Day signals more than summer’s end. It marks a return of focus to the economic and market forces that will shape the remainder of the year. From resilient earnings and record AI spending to rising bond yields and the midterm elections, there is no shortage of forces shaping the market outlook.
The ‘B’ Team Scores a Touchdown: 3 Active ETFs Hit Major Asset Milestones
I love ETF milestones and round numbers almost as much as I love watching football. There is something deeply satisfying about watching a fund hit a clean asset threshold. Crossing $500 million, $1 billion, or $2 billion in assets under management (AUM) is more than just a psychological victory. It signals real validation from financial advisors, provides greater liquidity, and lowers the risk of fund closure. Plus, as a fun bonus this week, our three featured funds all start with the letter B!
Apple’s $2,000-Plus Foldable iPhone Was a Decade in the Making
Around 2020, Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook returned from a trip to Asia unusually energized about a new product category: foldable phones.
AI Bears: Right About The Excess, May Be Wrong On The Trade
Before I discuss why I disagree with the “AI bears,” I want to state that I respect their opinions, have evaluated their concerns, and have simply derived a different set of conclusions. That is an important statement, because this particular group of “AI bears” includes some of the sharpest risk minds in the business, and they have been early to almost every warning that later mattered.
Revisiting Muddle Through
My goal with this letter will be to not interrupt your long weekend too much. But there are some things that are happening that are important. My basic thesis for quite some time has been that we are in a Muddle Through Economy, which I’ve always meant that to me the GDP will grow slightly south of 2% over time.
Nvidia’s $13 Billion Hugging Face Deal Is a Bargain Hedge
If you were Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang and you were laying out a few sector-shifting artificial-intelligence trends that could take shape over the coming months and years.
Anthropic Finalizing $15 Billion Pre-IPO Credit Facility
Anthropic PBC is set to finalize an expansion of its revolving credit facility to $15 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, clearing a hurdle before the artificial intelligence firm’s public filing for its highly anticipated IPO.
Emerging-Market Equities Offer More Than Chips and Memory
Emerging-market (EM) equities have benefited enormously from the global AI investment boom. But headline market gains show that EM leadership has become concentrated in a handful of mega-cap technology stocks. In our view, today’s EM benchmark is far less diversified than many investors assume, creating opportunities to seek differentiated sources of return.
AI’s Market Path Will Get Bumpier
By enhancing the input that goes into so much of what we do—intelligence—AI’s potential to drive higher economic growth is enormous. But with fears of the technology's unintended consequences affecting the pace and depth of adoption, the promise of long-term gains must be set against more immediate risks.
Washington: What to Watch Now
House poised to pass bill to avoid government shutdown, two new members set to join the House, Fed chair speech boosts rate hike possibility, and national debt hits $40 trillion.
I Don’t Always Make Monetary Decisions, but When I Do They Are Usually Wrong
The topic d’jure is that Kevin Warsh just gave his first Presser (Oh yes, we love that word) as new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and it was fascinating, although in fairness, I have a Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance streak in me that delights in what others might consider head-rolling minutiae.
ETF Flows Race Toward Record as Investors Deploy Barbell Strategy Against Macro Risks
It’s back-to-school season, and the ETF market is closing out a summer that proved anything but slow. August brought $180 billion in fresh net ETF asset inflows and saw the number of new ETFs coming to market cross 1,000 for the year. August also saw a barbell strategy against macro risks become a popular approach with ETF investors.
US Growth Stocks: Semiconductor Surge Redraws the Risk Map
Highly concentrated US equity markets have been a consistent theme in recent years. Now, after the latest reconstitution of a major US equity benchmark, concentration is taking on a new form, with the Magnificent Seven’s grip loosening and semiconductor stocks gaining more influence. In essence, millions of passive investors received a new portfolio without making a single decision.
Indexing Redefined, Part II: Core, Value, & Growth Exposure
In Part I of Indexing Redefined, the foundational strategies comprising Research Affiliates’ fundamental indexing methodology (RAFI) were introduced. With the baseline premise established, there is one myth to debunk: Some detractors may assume that RAFI is merely a niche value strategy.
In Your Backyard: Jobs, Growth, and the Race We're Actually In
This week, we take on the objection that scares people most: that AI and the data centers that run it are coming for their jobs. Let's separate what people currently believe from what the data currently shows, and then talk about why the jobs argument, even where it has merit, points toward building more data centers rather than fewer.
More Signs of Growth Across AI and Europe
This week, our Portfolio Manager Olga Bezrokov sees tentative signs of improvement emerging in Europe, although she cautions that the recovery remains uneven across countries and sectors.
Small-Cap Stocks Step Out of Big Tech’s Shadow
In markets that have faced multiple sources of uncertainty this year, small-cap stocks have quietly moved to the front of the pack. Unlike the S&P 500, where performance has been heavily influenced by changing AI narratives, smaller companies have seen earnings improve across a broader set of sectors that are more closely tied to the overall US economy.
What the New Section 338 Tariffs Mean for the U.S. and Canada
Trade talks between Canada and the U.S. fell apart on Saturday, resulting in the Section 338 tariffs on a subset of Canadian goods taking effect. In response, Canada has pledged to implement
Stock Market Tug of War: Earnings vs. Rates
Earnings have built a strong foundation. As we wrote earlier this month, earnings have provided a strong foundation for stocks this year. With second quarter earnings growth for the S&P 500 on track to exceed 30% (excluding private investment mark-ups) and analysts continuing to raise estimates, it's safe to say this season strengthened the fundamental case for equities.
Nvidia Is Jolting Silicon Valley to Think Like China
When a typical business finds its supply chain costs have risen, it will absorb the increase to keep its customers happy. Nvidia isn’t a typical business. It enjoys gross profit margins of 75% and commands between 70% and 90% of the global market for artificial-intelligence chips.
Nvidia’s Trillion-Dollar Chip Market Has Friends and Foes Closing In
Amazon.com Inc.’s Andy Jassy has begun making an audacious boast during conference calls this year. Though his company remains a top Nvidia Corp. customer, it’s also one of the world’s largest makers of data center chips in its own right.
A Bigger Basket Isn't Always a More Diversified One
Most of us try to be mindful not to put all our eggs in one basket. But the now-familiar concern that most portfolios are quite concentrated in a relatively small group of large US tech companies means that investors may still be doing just that.
Market Signals: Why Real Assets, Why Multi-Fund
Today, the backdrop for real assets has reset. Growth is returning, but in different parts of the market than many investors remember. While in the post-pandemic period performance was defined by scale, now it is the result of adaptability and having access to a broad array of organization sizes and business plans.
Rogue AI Is a Scary But Fixable Problem
No doubt, AI can be an unnerving tool. But it isn’t magic, malevolent, or secretly sentient. With some reasonable rules in place, policymakers should be able to keep the bots in line, and unleash the benefits for everyone else.
Bitcoin on Track for Biggest Weekly Gain in Over Three Years
Market exuberance returned to cryptocurrencies when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Wednesday the department would at least double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, triggering an upswing that forced traders to liquidate billions in short positions.
How US Small-Caps Can Navigate Sustained Leadership
After recovering from the “tariff tantrum” that saw stocks of all sizes and styles bottoming out in early April of 2025, equities finished 2025 in admirable shape, carrying the positive momentum into 2026.
Alibaba Profit Dives 75% After AI Spending Hits $10 Billion
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s profit plunged more than 75% after the Chinese company ratcheted up quarterly capital spending to almost $10 billion, aiming to safeguard its position in a fiercely competitive global AI arena.
What the 2026 Midterms Could Mean for the Markets
The 2026 midterms could reshape control of Congress, raising the odds of divided government and near-term market volatility, but investors should stay focused on long-term goals.
Hedged Equity as a Liquid Alternative
Hedged equity as a liquid alternative uses an options-based equity strategy — specifically Swan Global Investments’ Defined Risk Strategy (DRS), in continuous operation since 1997 — as a permanent alternatives allocation that stays invested in the equity market while actively managing downside risk through LEAPS put options
Balanced Budgets, Uneven Pressures
With the US fiscal year 2027 (FY27) state budget season now largely complete, several important trends have emerged. Most states and local governments adopted their budgets without major delays or political impasses, an encouraging sign for two important credit considerations: governance and financial management.
Government Failure and Socialism
The biggest political news of recent months is the rise of the Democratic Socialists of America. We suppose this started in New York City, with the election of Mayor Zohran Mamdani, but it has spread to Michigan and other states.
Anatomy of the Private Credit Market
As private credit further cements its role as a primary source of corporate financing, it will be essential to balance opportunity with prudent risk management for long-term stability and sustainability.
A Market Ahead of Its Economy
Today’s market does not represent today’s economy. The ratio of market value dependent on future economic activity versus present activity has never been higher. These companies have earnings now, but those earnings stem from investments in the future, not present consumption.
AI Giants Will Earn $1 Trillion This Year. It May Not Be Enough
Gone are the days of capital-light and cash-flow-rich technology businesses such as internet search, e-commerce and social media. The game now is artificial intelligence, and you had better have hard assets and deep pockets to play, the kind of money few companies have laying around.
Yen Intervention Narrative: What’s True And Not
So let’s do the work the timeline skips, starting with separating what actually happened from what the narrative needs you to believe. Then we’ll ask the only question that pays: should any of it change how you’re positioned this morning?
Goldman $2.25 Billion Neos Deal Raises Stakes in Active-ETF Race
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s agreement to buy Neos Investments for as much as $2.25 billion marks a new front in Wall Street’s ETF battle: paying up for specialist firms that have found growth beyond the industry’s low-fee giants.
The Interest-Rate Myth and What Really Drives US Small-Cap Returns
Royce Investment Partners: Co-CIO Francis Gannon examines the myth that rate hikes are bad news for US small-cap returns—and finds that history tells a different story.
Building Better Portfolios With Private Markets: Rethinking Retirement
While institutions have embraced private markets for decades, individuals have historically had limited access to these potentially valuable and versatile tools. Tony Davidow from Franklin Tempelton Institute demonstrates that private markets can be potentially valuable sources of growth and income during the accumulation and distribution phases of retirement.
AI Infrastructure Spending Puts Free Cash Flow Levels in Focus
The release of ChatGPT in 2022 ushered in the AI era. Since then, technology stocks have emerged as a key driver of market performance. The extraordinary gains have naturally sparked questions about whether the momentum can continue, particularly as technology companies invest heavily in AI infrastructure.
Updating Your Plan for Life’s Changes: Marriage, Divorce, Inheritance, and Policy Shifts
Life rarely stands still, and for families caring for a loved one with special needs, change can introduce both emotional and financial complexity. Marriage, divorce, the loss of a parent, an unexpected inheritance, or shifts in public policy may all significantly impact eligibility for benefits, long-term financial security, and family dynamics.
Korea Sovereign Wealth Fund to Join Global Race for AI, Robotics
South Korea expects to deploy more than 1 trillion won ($707 million) of fresh capital into a new sovereign wealth fund targeting AI and other strategic industries next year, joining a global push by governments to mobilize investment and gain an edge in high-tech sectors.
Nasdaq to Buy Dark Pool Trading Venue LeveL for Equity Market
Nasdaq Inc. agreed to buy off-exchange stock-trading venue LeveL Markets to expand its role in the equity market, according to people familiar with the matter.
The Trillion-Dollar Trio Goes Public: What Advisors Need to Know About SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI
For three years, clients have asked the same question: “How do I get into SpaceX or OpenAI before the IPO?” That question just changed tense.
The Mega-cap IPOs’ Impact on Index Funds
What stock fund could be safer than a total U.S. stock market index fund with thousands of securities? That was my thinking for the last three decades, but things are changing.
Congress Eyes Boosting Quantum Funds as Global Race Heats Up
US lawmakers from both parties are seeking to boost federal funding for quantum computing as China and other countries race to transition from research to deployment of the nascent technology across defense, intelligence and cybersecurity.
AI Borrowing Reshapes the Bond Market
Fixed income markets continue to adjust to an evolving policy backdrop following last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
What’s in Your Portfolio Wallet?
There is no one-size-fits-all individual investment strategy. We all have different needs. Once I decided I needed a portfolio that would work for today, I became convinced that a dividend growth portfolio should be the core of my long-term investment strategy. Not an addition, but the core.
Big Tech Stocks Storm Back as AI Fears Fade and Euphoria Resumes
After spending much of the year in the stock market doghouse over fears about their profligate spending on artificial intelligence, the world’s biggest technology companies are suddenly leading the way once again.
Tech Selloff Creates an Opportunity
In this article, Russ Koesterich explains how the recent market rotation has pressured tech stocks while creating an attractive long-term buying opportunity.
Capitalizing on Rational Optimism: Fidelity Strategists’ 2026 Market Outlook
Reflecting on the first half of 2026 provides a clear roadmap to strategize for the remainder of the year. Before that can occur, however, it’s imperative to check the pulse on the current state of the market and posit what may happen next.
Selectivity & Quality Take Center Stage in Muni Bond ETFs
High-net-worth investors and institutional managers continue to allocate heavily to muni bond ETFs to lock in attractive yields.
The Canary in the AI Coal Mine
The greatest danger posed by AI is not the technology itself, but the race to deploy it before we know how to control it. The recent Hugging Face breach shows how seemingly minor human errors can be amplified by AI, underscoring the risks of treating safety as an afterthought.
Tax-Aware Portfolio Transitions: Why the Transition Matters as Much as the Portfolio
New clients frequently arrive with portfolios that have been built over many years, often across multiple market cycles and advisory relationships. While these portfolios may have generated strong returns, they can also contain concentrated positions, legacy holdings or allocations that no longer align with the client's objectives.
Washington: What to Watch Now
Kevin Warsh considers fewer Fed meetings, the Fed holds rates steady, the Senate moves to avert a shutdown, a new BLS chief is confirmed, and midterms near.
Power at a Premium
Electricity has become a major global focus. It essential to powering the modern economy: regions with capacity will generate growth, while those without adequate supplies may be vulnerable to shocks.
Can Semiconductor Makers Navigate Rising Water Risks?
As companies race to capitalize on the AI boom, water security is emerging as a material risk across the value chain. While data centers attract headlines, semiconductor fabrication remains one of the value chain’s most water-intensive activities, requiring reliable supplies of high-purity water.
Baby Boomers Face 40% Risk of Loss in Most Target Date Funds
In this article, I explain why baby boomers in target date funds (TDFs) should not feel lucky today or in the near future. There’s a 40% chance that the typical TDF will have at least one losing year during the next five years. These are bad odds, especially since retirement with dignity is at stake.
Wall Street’s Private Banks Are Vying for AI’s Paper Money Elite
In the race to win a coveted role on the next mega US IPO and manage the ensuing riches, Wall Street’s wealth advisers are ramping up lending to founders and entrepreneurs based on the soaring values of their private companies.