Market Indicators

A strong quarter across major indexes. The second quarter is winding down and what a quarter it has been with the S&P 500 up 12.6% quarter to date, while the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 are both up over 20%. Despite some twists and turns, the path of least resistance for stocks broadly remained up and to the right for much of the last three months.

In our view, this divergence continues to reflect how the buildout of artificial intelligence (AI) is influencing both the economy and markets as it progresses across the value chain, even as the associated costs continue to climb.

The sharp retreat in oil prices has dramatically altered the market narrative. Just weeks ago, investors feared a renewed inflation shock from the conflict with Iran. Instead, crude has fallen back toward pre-conflict levels, Treasury yields have declined, and markets have begun rotating aggressively away from the large tech hyperscaler, the Magnificent Seven, that dominated recently and toward more cyclical and value-oriented sectors.

For decades, financial advisors have built strong relationships by helping clients manage IRAs, taxable accounts, and rollover assets after they leave an employer. Meanwhile, a significant, often the largest pool, of client wealth has quietly remained out of reach: assets inside workplace retirement plans.

The money is REAL. The question was never whether it exists. It’s who’s spending it, and what they borrowed to do it. When the wall of cash and the bottom half finally commit to risk at the same moment the Fed turns hawkish, that’s not the start of something. That’s the part of the cycle where the careful investor gets paid to be careful.

Ten years ago this week, the world watched the United Kingdom vote to walk away from the European Union. While the political class was clutching its pearls and every talking head on television was promising Armageddon by Christmas, I told you something different.

Alan Greenspan passed away last week at the ripe old age of 100. Other than presidents, few Americans have wielded as much power in the arena of economic policy as Greenspan did during his roughly eighteen years and five months at the helm of the Federal Reserve.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

It’s hard to believe we’re nearing the halfway point of 2026 – and what an eventful start it’s been. Markets have pushed through a geopolitically driven energy shock, rising inflation pressures and accelerating disruption from the artificial intelligence boom.

AI infrastructure spending is driving record equity market raisings and has lifted expectations for long-term GDP growth in the US. But what will happen to growth when the AI capex surge has peaked? Today’s elevated long-bond yields suggest that the market expects AI-related productivity gains to support faster growth over the longer term.

Friedman was reasoning from the equation of exchange, MV = PQ. Money times velocity equals prices times real output. It’s an identity, not a theory. Where it gets interesting is when you ask which variable does the work.

Circumstances since 2020 have repeatedly demonstrated how adaptable the economy is in the face of new challenges. We see no reason for that resilience to fade in the balance of the year.

Last week’s data reaffirmed that inflation pressures remain the defining narrative across the economic landscape.

I’m hopeful new chair Kevin Warsh will help change the Fed’s inflation-tolerating institutional culture. Early signs look positive. Today we’ll talk about how insidious inflation is and why those who think a little inflation is fine should have their heads examined. It is not fine… for anyone.

As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.

AI is both a foundational technology and the ultimate replacement product, which we believe explains why it has attracted unprecedented levels of capital and why the investment opportunities are so compelling.

There’s a new sheriff in town over at the Federal Reserve. He sounds a lot different than the old sheriff, but one would be wise to remember that Kevin Warsh is enforcing the same laws in the same town as Jerome Powell did.

The ongoing World Cup showcases three countries working together. The USMCA review will reveal whether that cooperation extends beyond sport. A shared platform can continue to deliver strong outcomes, but only if the rules remain clear, stable and broadly accepted.

U.S. equities posted a modest advance during the holiday-shortened trading week despite a Wednesday sell-off following a more hawkish than expected Federal Reserve meeting under its new chair, Kevin Warsh.

The rising debt burden of the U.S. government is becoming an increasingly serious economic concern. While it may not be an immediate crisis, it has the characteristics of a slow-moving domestic pandemic.

The corporate world is awash in capex. Leaders in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into tech projects, and uncertainty surrounds their profitability. For now, the market rewards this use of cash, but it’s not without pitfalls. Share buybacks, for instance, are seen as a net loser, while the S&P 500^® dividend yield has sunk toward all-time lows near 1%.

Kevin Warsh, the new chairman of the FOMC, has long been critical of forward guidance, which is the Fed’s practice of explicitly signaling the future path of interest rates (e.g., “rates will stay low for an extended period” or publishing a projected path for policy rates). His concern is that the guidance could give the impression that policymakers might have a high degree of confidence about the future path of the economy and rates.

The US-Iran conflict – and its impact on oil prices – has dominated headlines over the past three months. Higher oil prices have pushed inflation to a three‑year high, reshaping the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.

Humanoid robots grab headlines, but they are just a fraction of the physical AI ecosystem. Autonomous robots, drones, cobots, and eVTOLs are rapidly scaling across industrial and defense sectors.

On Monday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran have reached a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally flows.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

Start with the disconnect itself. If you only looked at the Michigan headline, you’d assume the country was in a depression. However, when you look at what people are actually doing, the picture changes completely.

At graduation ceremonies, audiences are often reminded to limit their audible reactions and hold applause, so that all graduates’ names can be heard. But a few viral videos this year showed a new disturbance to be managed: graduating students booing speakers if they extolled the virtues of artificial intelligence (AI).

We all know that Congress is never going to allow Social Security not to be paid. This begs a number of questions. Will the shortfall be addressed by tax increases, benefit reductions, increasing the retirement age, changing the inflation measures, means testing or some combination of these and other solutions?

As the summer economic landscape takes shape, investors are navigating shifting monetary policy, stubborn inflation pressures, and unexpected market momentum. This week’s snapshot breaks down the most critical updates and data releases from the past week to give you a clear view of where the economy is heading.

Kevin Warsh came out as a hawk during his first press conference as Federal Reserve (Fed) chair. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai believes that he may be the most hawkish chair since Paul Volcker. Warsh stressed that the Fed can and will bring inflation back to 2%, and signaled his preference for a smaller balance sheet and no forward guidance—a welcome return to more orthodox monetary policy.

One of the key questions for investment professionals is whether oil prices will return to pre-war levels once the Middle East crisis is resolved. At the same time, many are asking why oil prices are not higher, especially since the latest geopolitical deal recently pushed crude to its lowest level since the initial attack.

The catalyst that turns a healthy pullback into something deeper won’t be a single oil-soaked CPI print. It’ll be the moment forward earnings expectations start to roll over while valuations sit at the high end of history. We aren’t there yet.

Markets returned to positive territory for the week, with the turning point occurring Thursday after the announcement of a potential deal with Iran that would extend the ceasefire while reopening the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since February 27.