JPMorgan Chase & Co. bosses grew curious last summer as they clocked an unusual number of absences at the training sessions that kicked off their ultra-competitive junior analyst program.
With the price of digital assets testing the boundaries of plausibility, and Congress promising legislation to boost the industry further, now might be a good time for bank regulators to take notice.
I have been a pension nerd since I was 20 years old. So I have been hearing for literally decades that there is a simple, magical solution to all our retirement funding problems: Just take more risk! When the investments pay off, the coffers will be replenished and all will be well.
Nothing says talent war like a $100 million job offer. Mark Zuckerberg has been on a hiring blitz for AI’s most revered scientists, sending them cold emails and offering them roles in his new Superintelligence Labs division whose goal is nothing less than to build artificial-intelligence software that’s smarter than humans.
Three ETF strategies that launched in June stand out, bringing something interesting to the table for investors.
The valuation of small-cap stocks relative to large caps remains historically attractive, and small-cap recoveries in the past have resulted in meaningful periods of outperformance.
Compelling bond yields and diverging equity returns offer building blocks for effective strategies.
One of the more storied headlines this year has been President Trump’s disappointment with the Fed for not cutting rates. We should all know by now that the President cannot fire a Fed Chair simply because he/she is not lowering interest rates to their liking.
As we reach the midpoint of 2025, we reflect on the notably volatile trajectory of bond yields so far this year, considering the potential opportunity for tax-aware fixed income investors to harvest losses.
After mid-level performance in Q1, financials sector earnings are seen slowing in Q2, according to analysts, though favorable signs like the yield curve could help margins.
Franklin Mutual Series shares its mid-year outlook, focusing on corporate fundamentals as a catalyst to unlock value in the midst of ongoing market volatility.
In the week ending July 5th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 227,000. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 236,000 forecast.
Liberation Day seems like a lifetime ago. But the 90-day pause is almost over, and—thus far—there are few deals that have been consummated.
We expect tariff policy to remain a key part of the narrative pushed by the administration.
In this month’s issue, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity explains how markets in many regions are weathering US policy uncertainty and offers an upbeat assessment of Vietnam after a recent research visit.
In the weeks leading up to last month’s Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, oil prices climbed – not due to actual supply disruptions, but in response to a geopolitical risk premium.
In this article, you’ll learn how to evaluate crypto ETFs with the same rigor you apply to traditional investment products.
Our strategy work and quantitative insights suggest the conditions behind more than a decade of U.S. equity outperformance are starting to shift.
Looking at the first half of 2025 reveals a nuanced landscape for private equity (PE) and principal investors.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for June. The unemployment rate unexpectedly inch lower to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 147,000.
ClearBridge Investments believes positive forces from One Big Beautiful Bill Act passage and future interest rate cuts should soon outweigh negative forces of tariff actions.
If you're thinking about adding subscription services to your financial planning practice, you're not alone. More advisors are moving beyond the traditional AUM model to offer monthly subscription plans, and for good reason.
Reckoner Capital Management is testing investors’ hunger for a new category of risky bets with an exchange-traded fund that uses leverage to juice returns on collateralized loan obligations.
Futures traders have been unwinding some large bullish bets on Treasury bonds, adding to the recent upward pressure on US yields after a surprisingly strong jobs report last week.
Markets rebounded sharply in 2Q 2025 following April’s tariff-driven selloff. Our mid-year market outlook breaks down the recovery, Fed policy, and where to invest next.
Elevated interest rates and market uncertainty make for an interesting tandem regarding getting core bond exposure. When considering yield, reinforcing a portfolio to absorb market shocks, or both, consider this active option from Vanguard: the Vanguard Core-Plus Bond ETF (VPLS).
Tariff volatility rocked markets for much of the second quarter, creating pressure on U.S. bonds and equities. In the challenging environment, rife with uncertainty and investor concern, a handful of funds generated significant performance.
How the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund’s strategy helped it achieve outperformance during a historic period for global markets.
Gas prices fell for a second straight week, hitting their lowest level in nearly a month. As of July 7th, the price of regular gas was down 4 cents while the price of premium gas was down 3 cents from the previous week.
If you’ve been following the mainstream financial media lately, you might think the airline industry is in crisis. From headlines about tariffs and labor costs to geopolitical tensions and delays at Newark Airport, it sounds like air travel should be tanking.
We upgrade equities to neutral from underweight as falling interest rates and improving economic conditions in emerging markets offset uncertainty over US tariff policies.
They have been called “the four most costly words in the annals of investing,” and surely that’s true: This time is different. Still — hear me out! — there are reasons to entertain the possibility that, well, this time really is different.
US equities were steady at the open on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s latest tariff warnings left room for hope that he was still open to negotiations.
Private equity has officially conquered the registered investment advisor (RIA) landscape. It is now responsible for a significant portion of RIA-linked M&A activity.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index held steady in June, inching down 0.2 points to 98.6.
It was a positive quarter for emerging markets equities.
This year, so far, the world has been riddled with geopolitical news, resonating in widespread unrest, yet seemingly yielding less impact on financial markets.
Below, we recount highlights from constituents of the ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index (ROBO) and the ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence Index (THNQ).
Investors attempting to manage volatility in their portfolio often employ defensive equity strategies to define their optimal market exposure and risk profile. Such strategies are designed to help limit losses on the downside, while also allowing investors to participate in the market’s gains.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, reviews 13 stocks investors asked to see.
June's employment report showed that 82.8% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.2% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down nearly 37% from that peak.
Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.
The bull market is alive and well, even amid widespread talk of the “death of U.S. exceptionalism.
Investors looking for cash flow from commercial real estate may want to check out the debt side.
This quarter might best be described as the “Big Beautiful Bounce”. Or the BBB. History has proven time and time again that markets do come back – but this was a historically quick market turnaround.
From investing to economics to politics, patterns emerge, lessons resurface and the past becomes a powerful guide for navigating today’s unpredictable landscape. Timing, perspective and adaptability can make all the difference in managing the complexities of modern markets.
As the global economy navigates a complex landscape, investors are left wondering: are they right to be optimistic or are they being complacent? This article from Franklin Templeton Institute explores the signs of resilience as well as numerous risks.
The Senate has approved its own version of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax-and-spending plan. Here's how it differs from the version the House passed in May, and what's next.
Some say private credit hasn’t been tested. We disagree…and stress can sharpen the senses.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In June, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 while the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched lower to 4.1%.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8. This was consistent with the forecast and moves the index back into expansion territory after one month of contraction.
The U.S. trade deficit expanded nearly 19% to -$71.5B, as exports declined more than imports declined.
Israel-Iran hostilities brought a short-term market focus on oil. Longer term, artificial intelligence (AI) electricity needs could create a power shortage, as well as opportunities and risks for investors.
Proposed regulatory changes involving the Supplementary Leverage Ratio may have benefits for both large banks and the Treasury market.
Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.
We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.
It has been over six months since the FOMC has made a change to the Fed Funds rate. While the debate continues as to when the next cut will be, market consensus (per Bloomberg calculations) is currently for a 25 basis point cut in September.
The US economy is important, but it’s not the only one in a global approach.
In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.
When the Fed increased the M2 money supply by over 40% during the COVID crisis, our instinct was that the implications would extend far beyond a temporary boost to the U.S. stock market and higher inflation. That intuition is proving accurate. We’re now seeing the long-term ripple effects play out in real time across multiple asset classes and global markets.
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of May 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.8%.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?
With the Q1 GDP third estimate and the June close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 197.6%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
For good reasons, many investors have a love-hate relationship with commodity investments. Operationally, the annoying K-1 form complicates tax filing, although thankfully the industry has started to launch “no K-1” funds.
This year’s formidable challenges have clarified strategic lessons for equity investors to apply in the coming months
The marathon Senate budget vote took center stage early and stocks slipped from yesterday's all-time highs. Job openings, Powell, and manufacturing data are top of mind.
Goldman Sachs entered the ETF market nearly 10 years ago, yet two of its most popular products in 2025 are relatively new, both with less than a two-year track record.
For sophisticated investors, this technical shift marks a subtle but powerful pivot in monetary mechanics. It could create demand for Treasuries, improve market liquidity, and push yields lower at a time when the economy is slowing.
In a speculative market chasing AI and high beta, this report makes the case for the steady power of compounding dividends reminding investors that, especially late in the cycle, a bird in the hand may truly be worth two in the bush.
A potential conflict with Iran has consistently appeared in our monthly Market Risk Monitor for over two years. Now that risk has materialized. Our equity portfolio managers assess the implications for global markets.
Easing trade tensions and hopes the Senate could pass a budget gave stocks an early lift after Friday's record highs. The week is packed with jobs news and Powell talks tomorrow.
True fiduciary duty isn’t fulfilled by following the crowd. It’s fulfilled by doing the harder thing: making the right call even when it’s the unpopular one. The world doesn’t need more advisors playing not to lose. It needs more who are willing to lead — even if they walk alone.
US lenders are on a tear and hedge funds are snapping up shares at a furious pace, underscoring Wall Street’s increasing conviction that their record-breaking rally has more room to run.
Job openings unexpectedly jumped to a six-month high in May, reaching 7.769 million vacancies, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This marks the second straight monthly increase and was higher than the expected 7.320 million openings. Meanwhile, hires and layoffs declined, and quits increased.
U.S. manufacturing expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June, with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI reaching a three-year high of 52.9. This was higher than the forecast of 52.0. However, tariffs continued to affect the sector, leading to increased inventory buildup and a sharp acceleration in inflation.
Almost everything said about Tesla Inc. these days ranges from bad to worse.
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. At the end of June 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.30%.
Readers of a certain age will no doubt recall President Ronald Reagan launching one of the most ambitious military buildups in American history.
In a recent newsletter, we explored the explosive growth of ETFs and the implications for portfolio construction. In this follow-up blog post, Lauren and I wanted to take that conversation a step further—diving deeper into how advisors can navigate the ever-expanding ETF universe while staying true to their investment philosophy.
Thematic investing has experienced cycles of popularity over time. In less cautious market environments, investors often turn their attention to ambitious ideas — such as disruptive technologies or other transformative future trends — looking beyond traditional equity ETFs.
This article will help you evaluate whether it’s still a good time for clients to gain Bitcoin exposure—even after its recent all-time high—and how to do so responsibly. You’ll learn how Bitcoin fits into a diversified portfolio, what leading financial institutions forecast for its future, and why spot Bitcoin ETFs offer a regulated, practical entry point for long-term investors.
The United States’ tariff announcement on April 2, 2025, created significant market volatility, as the tariffs were perceived as higher, broader, and more punitive than expected, and the implementation sooner.
Market uncertainty needs a tailor-made approach to fixed income for advisors to construct the ideal portfolio for their clients. There’s an easier solution that encompasses an active management approach, various income sources, and low cost. It’s the Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS).
For years, Americans have lamented that rising housing prices and elevated mortgage rates have made homeownership unaffordable for too many first-time homebuyers, while prompting many homeowners to stay put rather than sell.
Despite concerns regarding the electrical power grid, there are solutions to meet the surge in AI-driven energy demand. For example, nuclear energy is making a comeback.
One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.%MCEPASTEBIN%
The S&P 500 Index just rallied back to all-time highs, brushing off the April tariff shock, the conflict with Iran and the insidious and persistent increase in US continuing jobless claims.
We continue to suggest an "up in quality" fixed income bias for the short run, but investors can still consider some of the riskier parts of the fixed income market in moderation.
Until recently, commercial real estate appeared poised for a long-awaited rebound. However, 2025 has revealed a new reality: Uncertainty has become structural.
Buffer ETFs
Big Banks Are Tired of Losing Recruits to Private Equity
JPMorgan Chase & Co. bosses grew curious last summer as they clocked an unusual number of absences at the training sessions that kicked off their ultra-competitive junior analyst program.
Crypto Renaissance Means It’s Time to Protect Banks
With the price of digital assets testing the boundaries of plausibility, and Congress promising legislation to boost the industry further, now might be a good time for bank regulators to take notice.
Social Security Needs More Than Risky Wagers
I have been a pension nerd since I was 20 years old. So I have been hearing for literally decades that there is a simple, magical solution to all our retirement funding problems: Just take more risk! When the investments pay off, the coffers will be replenished and all will be well.
Zuckerberg’s $100 Million AI Job Offers Are Paying Off
Nothing says talent war like a $100 million job offer. Mark Zuckerberg has been on a hiring blitz for AI’s most revered scientists, sending them cold emails and offering them roles in his new Superintelligence Labs division whose goal is nothing less than to build artificial-intelligence software that’s smarter than humans.
June 2025’s Most Innovative ETF Launches
Three ETF strategies that launched in June stand out, bringing something interesting to the table for investors.
Are Small Caps Next in Line to Shine?
The valuation of small-cap stocks relative to large caps remains historically attractive, and small-cap recoveries in the past have resulted in meaningful periods of outperformance.
Multi-Asset Income Midyear Outlook: Income and Resilience Among the Bumps
Compelling bond yields and diverging equity returns offer building blocks for effective strategies.
No Rate Cut for You…At Least Not Yet
One of the more storied headlines this year has been President Trump’s disappointment with the Fed for not cutting rates. We should all know by now that the President cannot fire a Fed Chair simply because he/she is not lowering interest rates to their liking.
Active Tax Loss Harvesting in Fixed Income: Checking In at Midyear
As we reach the midpoint of 2025, we reflect on the notably volatile trajectory of bond yields so far this year, considering the potential opportunity for tax-aware fixed income investors to harvest losses.
Q2 Bank Earnings Preview: A Dimmer Light?
After mid-level performance in Q1, financials sector earnings are seen slowing in Q2, according to analysts, though favorable signs like the yield curve could help margins.
Fundamentals Are a Lighthouse in the Storm
Franklin Mutual Series shares its mid-year outlook, focusing on corporate fundamentals as a catalyst to unlock value in the midst of ongoing market volatility.
Unemployment Claims Down 5K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending July 5th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 227,000. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 236,000 forecast.
At the Midway Point: Returning to the Fundamentals
Liberation Day seems like a lifetime ago. But the 90-day pause is almost over, and—thus far—there are few deals that have been consummated.
Midyear Commodity Outlook: Better for Commodities than Consumers
We expect tariff policy to remain a key part of the narrative pushed by the administration.
Emerging Markets Insights: Seeking Clarity on Tariffs
In this month’s issue, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity explains how markets in many regions are weathering US policy uncertainty and offers an upbeat assessment of Vietnam after a recent research visit.
Charting Commodity Markets
In the weeks leading up to last month’s Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, oil prices climbed – not due to actual supply disruptions, but in response to a geopolitical risk premium.
How to Choose a Crypto ETF: A Practical Guide for Financial Advisors
In this article, you’ll learn how to evaluate crypto ETFs with the same rigor you apply to traditional investment products.
Non-U.S. Investing In a Fragmenting World
Our strategy work and quantitative insights suggest the conditions behind more than a decade of U.S. equity outperformance are starting to shift.
Private Equity Halftime Report: Key Trends for Advisors
Looking at the first half of 2025 reveals a nuanced landscape for private equity (PE) and principal investors.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: June 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for June. The unemployment rate unexpectedly inch lower to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 147,000.
The Long View: Push-pull
ClearBridge Investments believes positive forces from One Big Beautiful Bill Act passage and future interest rate cuts should soon outweigh negative forces of tariff actions.
Breaking Down the Regulatory Requirements for Subscription Services
If you're thinking about adding subscription services to your financial planning practice, you're not alone. More advisors are moving beyond the traditional AUM model to offer monthly subscription plans, and for good reason.
First Leveraged CLO ETF Tests Retail Crowd’s Appetite for Risk
Reckoner Capital Management is testing investors’ hunger for a new category of risky bets with an exchange-traded fund that uses leverage to juice returns on collateralized loan obligations.
Treasury Bulls Unwind Big Bets as Strong Data Pushes Yields Up
Futures traders have been unwinding some large bullish bets on Treasury bonds, adding to the recent upward pressure on US yields after a surprisingly strong jobs report last week.
2025 Market Review & Mid-Year Market Outlook: Resilience in the Face of Uncertainty
Markets rebounded sharply in 2Q 2025 following April’s tariff-driven selloff. Our mid-year market outlook breaks down the recovery, Fed policy, and where to invest next.
Defense, Yield, or Both? An Active Bond ETF for Any Market
Elevated interest rates and market uncertainty make for an interesting tandem regarding getting core bond exposure. When considering yield, reinforcing a portfolio to absorb market shocks, or both, consider this active option from Vanguard: the Vanguard Core-Plus Bond ETF (VPLS).
WGMI a Second Quarter Top Performer
Tariff volatility rocked markets for much of the second quarter, creating pressure on U.S. bonds and equities. In the challenging environment, rife with uncertainty and investor concern, a handful of funds generated significant performance.
Outperformance in Extraordinary Times
How the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund’s strategy helped it achieve outperformance during a historic period for global markets.
Gas Prices Fall for Second Straight Week
Gas prices fell for a second straight week, hitting their lowest level in nearly a month. As of July 7th, the price of regular gas was down 4 cents while the price of premium gas was down 3 cents from the previous week.
Wall Street Is Wrong on Airlines: Americans Are Flying Like Never Before
If you’ve been following the mainstream financial media lately, you might think the airline industry is in crisis. From headlines about tariffs and labor costs to geopolitical tensions and delays at Newark Airport, it sounds like air travel should be tanking.
Equities Enter Slightly Calmer Waters
We upgrade equities to neutral from underweight as falling interest rates and improving economic conditions in emerging markets offset uncertainty over US tariff policies.
What If This Time Really Is Different for Investors?
They have been called “the four most costly words in the annals of investing,” and surely that’s true: This time is different. Still — hear me out! — there are reasons to entertain the possibility that, well, this time really is different.
Stocks Hold Steady on Hope Trade Talks Have Room for Negotiation
US equities were steady at the open on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s latest tariff warnings left room for hope that he was still open to negotiations.
The Great RIA Consolidation: Private Equity Reshapes Wealth Management
Private equity has officially conquered the registered investment advisor (RIA) landscape. It is now responsible for a significant portion of RIA-linked M&A activity.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Remains Steady While Uncertainty Falls
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index held steady in June, inching down 0.2 points to 98.6.
A Solid Quarter Signals Promising Potential
It was a positive quarter for emerging markets equities.
Fixed Income In Focus: 2025 Mid-Year Recap
This year, so far, the world has been riddled with geopolitical news, resonating in widespread unrest, yet seemingly yielding less impact on financial markets.
The AI Arms Race Heats Up: June’s Robotics & Automation Playbook
Below, we recount highlights from constituents of the ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index (ROBO) and the ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence Index (THNQ).
A Dynamic Approach to Defensive Equity
Investors attempting to manage volatility in their portfolio often employ defensive equity strategies to define their optimal market exposure and risk profile. Such strategies are designed to help limit losses on the downside, while also allowing investors to participate in the market’s gains.
13 More Stocks Investors Asked To See
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, reviews 13 stocks investors asked to see.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: June 2025
June's employment report showed that 82.8% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.2% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
Vehicle Sales: June 2025
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down nearly 37% from that peak.
Mid-Year Themes
Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.
The Bull Market is Alive and Well
The bull market is alive and well, even amid widespread talk of the “death of U.S. exceptionalism.
Need Income? Europe’s Commercial Real Estate Debt is Worth a Look
Investors looking for cash flow from commercial real estate may want to check out the debt side.
Growth Equity Portfolio Second Quarter Review June 30, 2025
This quarter might best be described as the “Big Beautiful Bounce”. Or the BBB. History has proven time and time again that markets do come back – but this was a historically quick market turnaround.
Lessons From the Past, Strategies for the Future
From investing to economics to politics, patterns emerge, lessons resurface and the past becomes a powerful guide for navigating today’s unpredictable landscape. Timing, perspective and adaptability can make all the difference in managing the complexities of modern markets.
Quick Thoughts: The Global Reset
As the global economy navigates a complex landscape, investors are left wondering: are they right to be optimistic or are they being complacent? This article from Franklin Templeton Institute explores the signs of resilience as well as numerous risks.
Senate Approves Revised Tax and Spending Bill
The Senate has approved its own version of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax-and-spending plan. Here's how it differs from the version the House passed in May, and what's next.
Private Credit Outlook: Five Lessons Learned
Some say private credit hasn’t been tested. We disagree…and stress can sharpen the senses.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: June Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In June, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 while the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched lower to 4.1%.
ISM Services PMI Returns to Expansion Territory in June
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8. This was consistent with the forecast and moves the index back into expansion territory after one month of contraction.
Trade Deficit Expands 19% in May
The U.S. trade deficit expanded nearly 19% to -$71.5B, as exports declined more than imports declined.
Energy: Global Excess or Shortage of Power?
Israel-Iran hostilities brought a short-term market focus on oil. Longer term, artificial intelligence (AI) electricity needs could create a power shortage, as well as opportunities and risks for investors.
Under the Macroscope: Why Cutting the SLR Matters
Proposed regulatory changes involving the Supplementary Leverage Ratio may have benefits for both large banks and the Treasury market.
Equity Markets Found Traction in June
Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.
Midyear Fixed Income Outlook: Starting Yields Matter Amid Uncertainty
We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.
A Lesson From Recent History
It has been over six months since the FOMC has made a change to the Fed Funds rate. While the debate continues as to when the next cut will be, market consensus (per Bloomberg calculations) is currently for a 25 basis point cut in September.
Fixed-Income Outlook: Expanding the Field
The US economy is important, but it’s not the only one in a global approach.
Balancing Act: Building Resilient Portfolios in a Changing Landscape
In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.
The Lasting Impact of the COVID M2 Surge: Why Diversification Is More Crucial Than Ever
When the Fed increased the M2 money supply by over 40% during the COVID crisis, our instinct was that the implications would extend far beyond a temporary boost to the U.S. stock market and higher inflation. That intuition is proving accurate. We’re now seeing the long-term ripple effects play out in real time across multiple asset classes and global markets.
Two Measures of Inflation: May 2025
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of May 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.8%.
The Total Return Roller Coaster: June 2025
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?
Buffett Valuation Indicator: June 2025
With the Q1 GDP third estimate and the June close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 197.6%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
Expand Your Mind and Your Commodity Universe
For good reasons, many investors have a love-hate relationship with commodity investments. Operationally, the annoying K-1 form complicates tax filing, although thankfully the industry has started to launch “no K-1” funds.
Equity Outlook: Applying Timeless Insights for Volatile Times Ahead
This year’s formidable challenges have clarified strategic lessons for equity investors to apply in the coming months
Stocks Slip From Highs as Senate Marathon Persists
The marathon Senate budget vote took center stage early and stocks slipped from yesterday's all-time highs. Job openings, Powell, and manufacturing data are top of mind.
Goldman Sachs Options-Based ETFs Double Assets in 2025
Goldman Sachs entered the ETF market nearly 10 years ago, yet two of its most popular products in 2025 are relatively new, both with less than a two-year track record.
SLR: Could It End The Bond Bear Market
For sophisticated investors, this technical shift marks a subtle but powerful pivot in monetary mechanics. It could create demand for Treasuries, improve market liquidity, and push yields lower at a time when the economy is slowing.
A Bird in the Hand...
In a speculative market chasing AI and high beta, this report makes the case for the steady power of compounding dividends reminding investors that, especially late in the cycle, a bird in the hand may truly be worth two in the bush.
Iran Conflict Equity Implications
A potential conflict with Iran has consistently appeared in our monthly Market Risk Monitor for over two years. Now that risk has materialized. Our equity portfolio managers assess the implications for global markets.
Fireworks Ahead: Jobs Data Loom After Record Highs
Easing trade tensions and hopes the Senate could pass a budget gave stocks an early lift after Friday's record highs. The week is packed with jobs news and Powell talks tomorrow.
Thinning the Herd: Herd Investing Is a Disservice to Clients
True fiduciary duty isn’t fulfilled by following the crowd. It’s fulfilled by doing the harder thing: making the right call even when it’s the unpopular one. The world doesn’t need more advisors playing not to lose. It needs more who are willing to lead — even if they walk alone.
Hedge Funds Pile In as Big US Banks Soar to All-Time Highs
US lenders are on a tear and hedge funds are snapping up shares at a furious pace, underscoring Wall Street’s increasing conviction that their record-breaking rally has more room to run.
Job Openings Unexpectedly Jump to Six-Month High
Job openings unexpectedly jumped to a six-month high in May, reaching 7.769 million vacancies, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This marks the second straight monthly increase and was higher than the expected 7.320 million openings. Meanwhile, hires and layoffs declined, and quits increased.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Highest Level in Three Years
U.S. manufacturing expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June, with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI reaching a three-year high of 52.9. This was higher than the forecast of 52.0. However, tariffs continued to affect the sector, leading to increased inventory buildup and a sharp acceleration in inflation.
Let AI Explain Why Tesla's Critics Are Losing
Almost everything said about Tesla Inc. these days ranges from bad to worse.
10-Year Treasury Yield Long-Term Perspective: June 2025
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. At the end of June 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.30%.
Trump Succeeds at Pushing NATO to Spend Five Percent as New Arms Race Begins
Readers of a certain age will no doubt recall President Ronald Reagan launching one of the most ambitious military buildups in American history.
ETFs Are Evolving—Is Your Portfolio Strategy Keeping Up?
In a recent newsletter, we explored the explosive growth of ETFs and the implications for portfolio construction. In this follow-up blog post, Lauren and I wanted to take that conversation a step further—diving deeper into how advisors can navigate the ever-expanding ETF universe while staying true to their investment philosophy.
Thematic ETFs in 2025: What’s Next?
Thematic investing has experienced cycles of popularity over time. In less cautious market environments, investors often turn their attention to ambitious ideas — such as disruptive technologies or other transformative future trends — looking beyond traditional equity ETFs.
Bitcoin’s New Peak: Is It Too Late for Your Clients to Get In?
This article will help you evaluate whether it’s still a good time for clients to gain Bitcoin exposure—even after its recent all-time high—and how to do so responsibly. You’ll learn how Bitcoin fits into a diversified portfolio, what leading financial institutions forecast for its future, and why spot Bitcoin ETFs offer a regulated, practical entry point for long-term investors.
Tariffs Rattle Markets—But EM Debt Endures
The United States’ tariff announcement on April 2, 2025, created significant market volatility, as the tariffs were perceived as higher, broader, and more punitive than expected, and the implementation sooner.
An Active, Multi-Income ETF Option at a Low Cost
Market uncertainty needs a tailor-made approach to fixed income for advisors to construct the ideal portfolio for their clients. There’s an easier solution that encompasses an active management approach, various income sources, and low cost. It’s the Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS).
Could Housing Finally Start to Become More Affordable?
For years, Americans have lamented that rising housing prices and elevated mortgage rates have made homeownership unaffordable for too many first-time homebuyers, while prompting many homeowners to stay put rather than sell.
Fueling AI Data Centers: Behind the Meter Solutions
Despite concerns regarding the electrical power grid, there are solutions to meet the surge in AI-driven energy demand. For example, nuclear energy is making a comeback.
Monitoring Portfolio News Using AI
One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.%MCEPASTEBIN%
Stocks are Defying the Naysayers. They Can Keep Going.
The S&P 500 Index just rallied back to all-time highs, brushing off the April tariff shock, the conflict with Iran and the insidious and persistent increase in US continuing jobless claims.
Corporate Bonds: Mid-Year 2025 Outlook
We continue to suggest an "up in quality" fixed income bias for the short run, but investors can still consider some of the riskier parts of the fixed income market in moderation.
Bend, Not Break: Investing in Real Estate Amid Economic Uncertainty
Until recently, commercial real estate appeared poised for a long-awaited rebound. However, 2025 has revealed a new reality: Uncertainty has become structural.