Considering the spate of sizable inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs and the recent ebullience surrounding equities, some investors are vexed by recent lethargy displayed by the largest cryptocurrency. However, sluggishness is in the eye of the beholder. Bitcoin gained about 3.3% for the week ending June 26, but HODLers wanted more.
As we reach the midpoint of 2025, we reflect on the notably volatile trajectory of bond yields so far this year, considering the potential opportunity for tax-aware fixed income investors to harvest losses.
Global central bankers have ducked a chance to push for tight borrowing constraints on the biggest hedge funds, whose importance to core government bond and other financial markets has grown enormously in the past decade.
US equities swung between small gains and losses at the open Thursday as investors parsed through a slew of tariff headlines and looked ahead to corporate results that are due to start in the earnest next week.
Private equity firms are bringing their portfolio companies back to the US IPO market, testing investor demand for firms that have more debt than other recent listings.
Liberation Day seems like a lifetime ago. But the 90-day pause is almost over, and—thus far—there are few deals that have been consummated.
We expect tariff policy to remain a key part of the narrative pushed by the administration.
In this month’s issue, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity explains how markets in many regions are weathering US policy uncertainty and offers an upbeat assessment of Vietnam after a recent research visit.
In the weeks leading up to last month’s Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, oil prices climbed – not due to actual supply disruptions, but in response to a geopolitical risk premium.
In this article, you’ll learn how to evaluate crypto ETFs with the same rigor you apply to traditional investment products.
Our strategy work and quantitative insights suggest the conditions behind more than a decade of U.S. equity outperformance are starting to shift.
Our long-time investors are probably wondering why we haven’t made any gains over the last 18 months.
The artificial intelligence investment landscape reached a critical inflection point in Q2 2025, with the ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence Index (THNQ) delivering exceptional returns of 24.4%.
ClearBridge Investments believes positive forces from One Big Beautiful Bill Act passage and future interest rate cuts should soon outweigh negative forces of tariff actions.
Are interest rates too high? A lot of people think they are, and a growing chorus of voices is calling on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut rates.
How the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund’s strategy helped it achieve outperformance during a historic period for global markets.
In the latest Alternative Allocations, with guest Brian Ullsperger from Andersen, Tony Davidow examines the traditional 60/40 portfolio and how it can be expanded to include alternatives to meet clients’ needs.
Gas prices fell for a second straight week, hitting their lowest level in nearly a month. As of July 7th, the price of regular gas was down 4 cents while the price of premium gas was down 3 cents from the previous week.
So many businesses are stuck in this endless cycle of chasing leads, hoping that persistence will eventually pay off. Here’s the truth: chasing leads is not only ineffective, it’s damaging your business.
If you’ve been following the mainstream financial media lately, you might think the airline industry is in crisis. From headlines about tariffs and labor costs to geopolitical tensions and delays at Newark Airport, it sounds like air travel should be tanking.
We upgrade equities to neutral from underweight as falling interest rates and improving economic conditions in emerging markets offset uncertainty over US tariff policies.
US equities were steady at the open on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s latest tariff warnings left room for hope that he was still open to negotiations.
For those breaking into the financial industry, it’s an exciting time. The opportunity to achieve success and make an impact on an industry that could help people for years to come .
The earnings bar is fairly low for the second quarter, setting companies up for a potential easy jump—but there will likely be more focus on forward guidance.
As the second half gets underway, we think a modest overweight to risk assets is called for.
Semiconductor equities and related ETFs notched impressive performances in the first half of the year. They were buoyed by ongoing enthusiasm for the AI trade and post-Liberation Day resurgence by the Magnificent Seven.
Investors attempting to manage volatility in their portfolio often employ defensive equity strategies to define their optimal market exposure and risk profile. Such strategies are designed to help limit losses on the downside, while also allowing investors to participate in the market’s gains.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, reviews 13 stocks investors asked to see.
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through July 7, 2025.
U.S. stocks are no longer the best-performing asset class this year. Gold and foreign stocks are the best performers.
In part 2 of this series, this article looks past the data center operators and focuses on the natural gas pipelines and the manufacturers of natural gas power plant equipment.
As leaders of the China-led group of emerging-market economies known as the BRICS descend on Rio de Janeiro for their summit starting Sunday, expect the usual coterie of talking heads offering prepared remarks to the media with the city’s iconic Sugarloaf mountain serving as a picturesque backdrop.
In last week’s letter, I referenced Torsten Sløk’s excellent midyear outlook for Apollo Global Management. Today I’ll share some longer quotes which will, I hope, help you visualize where the economy is headed.
A pre-summer frenzy in junk loans is seeing the market start to overheat, prompting investors to get a bit more picky about deals after spreads reached the tightest levels in years.
Traders are swarming to equity-focused, exchange-traded funds listed in Taiwan, with demand from retail investors and a strong local currency driving up flows.
BlackRock Inc. is considering a sale of its stake in the leasing rights to Saudi Aramco’s natural-gas pipeline network back to the energy giant, according to people familiar with the matter.
The yield on the 10-year note ended July 3, 2025 at 4.35%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.88% and the 30-year note ended at 4.86%.
Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.
This quarter might best be described as the “Big Beautiful Bounce”. Or the BBB. History has proven time and time again that markets do come back – but this was a historically quick market turnaround.
After a tumultuous few months, June of 2025 saw a strong rally which took global markets to (or close to) new highs. The rally was broad-based, with international and U.S. markets all up strongly.
From investing to economics to politics, patterns emerge, lessons resurface and the past becomes a powerful guide for navigating today’s unpredictable landscape. Timing, perspective and adaptability can make all the difference in managing the complexities of modern markets.
Though some urge rate cuts, doing that won't necessarily reduce borrowing costs if the market doesn't agree with the timing. It could raise inflation fears, hurting Treasuries.
Sharp U.S. policy shift and elevated uncertainty reflect an evolution of the new macro regime. What matters: getting a grip on uncertainty by identifying its core features.
The first half of 2025 may not have been kind to private equity, but new data suggests that things could turn around soon.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In June, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 while the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched lower to 4.1%.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8. This was consistent with the forecast and moves the index back into expansion territory after one month of contraction.
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 29th consecutive month of expansion but was a slight slow down from May's 53.7 reading.
Vietnam’s trade deal with the US is a wake-up call for Asian governments grappling with the reality that higher tariffs are here to stay.
The U.S. trade deficit expanded nearly 19% to -$71.5B, as exports declined more than imports declined.
Israel-Iran hostilities brought a short-term market focus on oil. Longer term, artificial intelligence (AI) electricity needs could create a power shortage, as well as opportunities and risks for investors.
Proposed regulatory changes involving the Supplementary Leverage Ratio may have benefits for both large banks and the Treasury market.
Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.
We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.
The US economy is important, but it’s not the only one in a global approach.
In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.
When the Fed increased the M2 money supply by over 40% during the COVID crisis, our instinct was that the implications would extend far beyond a temporary boost to the U.S. stock market and higher inflation. That intuition is proving accurate. We’re now seeing the long-term ripple effects play out in real time across multiple asset classes and global markets.
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of May 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.8%.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the June 30, 2025 close.
Financial advice is going to be in more demand than ever in 10 years. Is your firm ready for the challenge?
For good reasons, many investors have a love-hate relationship with commodity investments. Operationally, the annoying K-1 form complicates tax filing, although thankfully the industry has started to launch “no K-1” funds.
Your firm's culture should reflect your values and your mission.
This year’s formidable challenges have clarified strategic lessons for equity investors to apply in the coming months
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is developing a new service to tokenize carbon credits and is partnering with a trio of carbon companies for an initial trial.
India has seen foreigners leaving the market for most of 2025. For this and other reasons, India has become one of the bigger shorts in our Systematic Global Macro Strategy’s equity portfolio
As direct lending matures and other private credit areas expand, active investors can apply relative value strategies across sectors – and even entire markets – to pursue enhanced outcomes.
Markets notched fresh all-time highs on Friday with a positive tone and geopolitical outlook. Swift retreat in oil back to pre-strike levels, combined with friendlier NATO negotiations and de-escalated fighting in Iran restored risk appetite.
A potential conflict with Iran has consistently appeared in our monthly Market Risk Monitor for over two years. Now that risk has materialized. Our equity portfolio managers assess the implications for global markets.
The European Union is willing to accept a trade arrangement with the US that includes a 10% universal tariff on many of the bloc’s exports, but wants the US to commit to lower rates than that on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft.
Easing trade tensions and hopes the Senate could pass a budget gave stocks an early lift after Friday's record highs. The week is packed with jobs news and Powell talks tomorrow.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney handed US President Donald Trump a win in the hope of making bigger gains in trade negotiations.
There are a number of considerations to put in place before you start any change effort, transition or project. These can help save endless hours of wasted time trying to undo things that didn’t work or going back to fix it again.
The words you use are not just tools for communication; they’re signals. Signals that tell your prospects whether you’re someone they can trust or someone they should avoid.
True fiduciary duty isn’t fulfilled by following the crowd. It’s fulfilled by doing the harder thing: making the right call even when it’s the unpopular one. The world doesn’t need more advisors playing not to lose. It needs more who are willing to lead — even if they walk alone.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in June, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a fourth straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.8.
U.S. manufacturing expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June, with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI reaching a three-year high of 52.9. This was higher than the forecast of 52.0. However, tariffs continued to affect the sector, leading to increased inventory buildup and a sharp acceleration in inflation.
Almost everything said about Tesla Inc. these days ranges from bad to worse.
Just a few decades ago, Europe led the world in adopting nuclear. It relied on the technology for more than 30% of its electricity and accounted for more than 40% of global production.
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. At the end of June 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.30%.
Readers of a certain age will no doubt recall President Ronald Reagan launching one of the most ambitious military buildups in American history.
Growth is expected to decelerate, but not come crashing down.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Thematic investing has experienced cycles of popularity over time. In less cautious market environments, investors often turn their attention to ambitious ideas — such as disruptive technologies or other transformative future trends — looking beyond traditional equity ETFs.
This article will help you evaluate whether it’s still a good time for clients to gain Bitcoin exposure—even after its recent all-time high—and how to do so responsibly. You’ll learn how Bitcoin fits into a diversified portfolio, what leading financial institutions forecast for its future, and why spot Bitcoin ETFs offer a regulated, practical entry point for long-term investors.
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
What are consumers thinking about the economy? Their collective mood offers crucial clues for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike. Two prominent monthly surveys, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), aim to capture this vital pulse. In June, these gauges sent mixed signals: the MCSI rose for the first time in six months, reaching 60.7, while the CCI retreated to 93.0, erasing nearly half of its prior gains.
Stocks are wrapping up a stellar quarter at all-time highs amid signs of progress in US trade talks while hopes the Federal Reserve will resume its rate cuts drove Treasuries toward their biggest first-half stretch in five years. The dollar eyed its longest monthly slide since 2017.
Despite concerns regarding the electrical power grid, there are solutions to meet the surge in AI-driven energy demand. For example, nuclear energy is making a comeback.
One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.%MCEPASTEBIN%
Are we experiencing an energy transition? According to geologist and fund manager Jane Woodward, we are — and it’s proceeding more quickly than almost anyone expected.
British oil and gas giant Shell Plc has quashed a rumor: It’s not buying BP Plc. But last week’s forceful denial doesn’t address why the M&A chatter gained so much traction, which has less to do with the parlous state of BP than with Shell itself.
Commodities
CoinShares Channel Share Bitcoin Unusually Calm, But That Won’t Last Long
Considering the spate of sizable inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs and the recent ebullience surrounding equities, some investors are vexed by recent lethargy displayed by the largest cryptocurrency. However, sluggishness is in the eye of the beholder. Bitcoin gained about 3.3% for the week ending June 26, but HODLers wanted more.
Active Tax Loss Harvesting in Fixed Income: Checking In at Midyear
As we reach the midpoint of 2025, we reflect on the notably volatile trajectory of bond yields so far this year, considering the potential opportunity for tax-aware fixed income investors to harvest losses.
Central Banks are Flying Blind on Hedge Fund Leverage
Global central bankers have ducked a chance to push for tight borrowing constraints on the biggest hedge funds, whose importance to core government bond and other financial markets has grown enormously in the past decade.
Stocks Steady as Traders Look Through Chaos to Corporate Results
US equities swung between small gains and losses at the open Thursday as investors parsed through a slew of tariff headlines and looked ahead to corporate results that are due to start in the earnest next week.
Private Equity-Backed US IPOs Return With Plenty of Leverage
Private equity firms are bringing their portfolio companies back to the US IPO market, testing investor demand for firms that have more debt than other recent listings.
At the Midway Point: Returning to the Fundamentals
Liberation Day seems like a lifetime ago. But the 90-day pause is almost over, and—thus far—there are few deals that have been consummated.
Midyear Commodity Outlook: Better for Commodities than Consumers
We expect tariff policy to remain a key part of the narrative pushed by the administration.
Emerging Markets Insights: Seeking Clarity on Tariffs
In this month’s issue, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity explains how markets in many regions are weathering US policy uncertainty and offers an upbeat assessment of Vietnam after a recent research visit.
Charting Commodity Markets
In the weeks leading up to last month’s Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, oil prices climbed – not due to actual supply disruptions, but in response to a geopolitical risk premium.
How to Choose a Crypto ETF: A Practical Guide for Financial Advisors
In this article, you’ll learn how to evaluate crypto ETFs with the same rigor you apply to traditional investment products.
Non-U.S. Investing In a Fragmenting World
Our strategy work and quantitative insights suggest the conditions behind more than a decade of U.S. equity outperformance are starting to shift.
Late 2021 Speculation is Back
Our long-time investors are probably wondering why we haven’t made any gains over the last 18 months.
AI Posts Strong Q2 Returns as Inference Economy Takes Hold
The artificial intelligence investment landscape reached a critical inflection point in Q2 2025, with the ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence Index (THNQ) delivering exceptional returns of 24.4%.
The Long View: Push-pull
ClearBridge Investments believes positive forces from One Big Beautiful Bill Act passage and future interest rate cuts should soon outweigh negative forces of tariff actions.
Are Interest Rates Too High?
Are interest rates too high? A lot of people think they are, and a growing chorus of voices is calling on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut rates.
Outperformance in Extraordinary Times
How the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund’s strategy helped it achieve outperformance during a historic period for global markets.
Examining the 60/40 Portfolio With Brian Ullsperger
In the latest Alternative Allocations, with guest Brian Ullsperger from Andersen, Tony Davidow examines the traditional 60/40 portfolio and how it can be expanded to include alternatives to meet clients’ needs.
Gas Prices Fall for Second Straight Week
Gas prices fell for a second straight week, hitting their lowest level in nearly a month. As of July 7th, the price of regular gas was down 4 cents while the price of premium gas was down 3 cents from the previous week.
Make Sure You’re Not Chasing Ghosts
So many businesses are stuck in this endless cycle of chasing leads, hoping that persistence will eventually pay off. Here’s the truth: chasing leads is not only ineffective, it’s damaging your business.
Wall Street Is Wrong on Airlines: Americans Are Flying Like Never Before
If you’ve been following the mainstream financial media lately, you might think the airline industry is in crisis. From headlines about tariffs and labor costs to geopolitical tensions and delays at Newark Airport, it sounds like air travel should be tanking.
Equities Enter Slightly Calmer Waters
We upgrade equities to neutral from underweight as falling interest rates and improving economic conditions in emerging markets offset uncertainty over US tariff policies.
Stocks Hold Steady on Hope Trade Talks Have Room for Negotiation
US equities were steady at the open on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s latest tariff warnings left room for hope that he was still open to negotiations.
Lessons on Building a Successful Career in Finance
For those breaking into the financial industry, it’s an exciting time. The opportunity to achieve success and make an impact on an industry that could help people for years to come .
2Q Earnings: The Beat Goes On?
The earnings bar is fairly low for the second quarter, setting companies up for a potential easy jump—but there will likely be more focus on forward guidance.
Multi-Asset Midyear Outlook: Selectivity Matters
As the second half gets underway, we think a modest overweight to risk assets is called for.
After Impressive First Half, This Chip ETF Has Fuel for More Upside
Semiconductor equities and related ETFs notched impressive performances in the first half of the year. They were buoyed by ongoing enthusiasm for the AI trade and post-Liberation Day resurgence by the Magnificent Seven.
A Dynamic Approach to Defensive Equity
Investors attempting to manage volatility in their portfolio often employ defensive equity strategies to define their optimal market exposure and risk profile. Such strategies are designed to help limit losses on the downside, while also allowing investors to participate in the market’s gains.
13 More Stocks Investors Asked To See
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, reviews 13 stocks investors asked to see.
World Markets Watchlist: July 7, 2025
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through July 7, 2025.
A Concise and Comprehensive Review of Asset Class Performance in 1H 2025
U.S. stocks are no longer the best-performing asset class this year. Gold and foreign stocks are the best performers.
Behind the Meter Solutions Investing Guide
In part 2 of this series, this article looks past the data center operators and focuses on the natural gas pipelines and the manufacturers of natural gas power plant equipment.
Brazil's BRICS Fixation Has Delivered Few Benefits
As leaders of the China-led group of emerging-market economies known as the BRICS descend on Rio de Janeiro for their summit starting Sunday, expect the usual coterie of talking heads offering prepared remarks to the media with the city’s iconic Sugarloaf mountain serving as a picturesque backdrop.
At The Crossroads
In last week’s letter, I referenced Torsten Sløk’s excellent midyear outlook for Apollo Global Management. Today I’ll share some longer quotes which will, I hope, help you visualize where the economy is headed.
Hot Junk Loan Market Hits Stumbling Blocks as Investors Feel Squeeze
A pre-summer frenzy in junk loans is seeing the market start to overheat, prompting investors to get a bit more picky about deals after spreads reached the tightest levels in years.
Taiwan Stock ETFs Lead Inflows in Asia With $19 Billion Haul
Traders are swarming to equity-focused, exchange-traded funds listed in Taiwan, with demand from retail investors and a strong local currency driving up flows.
BlackRock Weighs Selling Stake in Saudi Aramco Gas Pipelines
BlackRock Inc. is considering a sale of its stake in the leasing rights to Saudi Aramco’s natural-gas pipeline network back to the energy giant, according to people familiar with the matter.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: July 3, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended July 3, 2025 at 4.35%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.88% and the 30-year note ended at 4.86%.
Mid-Year Themes
Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.
Growth Equity Portfolio Second Quarter Review June 30, 2025
This quarter might best be described as the “Big Beautiful Bounce”. Or the BBB. History has proven time and time again that markets do come back – but this was a historically quick market turnaround.
Quantstreet July 2025 Letter: Geopolitics and Markets
After a tumultuous few months, June of 2025 saw a strong rally which took global markets to (or close to) new highs. The rally was broad-based, with international and U.S. markets all up strongly.
Lessons From the Past, Strategies for the Future
From investing to economics to politics, patterns emerge, lessons resurface and the past becomes a powerful guide for navigating today’s unpredictable landscape. Timing, perspective and adaptability can make all the difference in managing the complexities of modern markets.
Easy Money? Rate Cuts May Not Ease Borrowing Costs
Though some urge rate cuts, doing that won't necessarily reduce borrowing costs if the market doesn't agree with the timing. It could raise inflation fears, hurting Treasuries.
Getting a Grip on Uncertainty
Sharp U.S. policy shift and elevated uncertainty reflect an evolution of the new macro regime. What matters: getting a grip on uncertainty by identifying its core features.
Is a Private Equity Comeback on the Horizon?
The first half of 2025 may not have been kind to private equity, but new data suggests that things could turn around soon.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: June Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In June, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 while the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched lower to 4.1%.
ISM Services PMI Returns to Expansion Territory in June
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8. This was consistent with the forecast and moves the index back into expansion territory after one month of contraction.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Sustained in June
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 29th consecutive month of expansion but was a slight slow down from May's 53.7 reading.
Trump’s Vietnam Deal Stokes Asia Concern as Trade Deadline Looms
Vietnam’s trade deal with the US is a wake-up call for Asian governments grappling with the reality that higher tariffs are here to stay.
Trade Deficit Expands 19% in May
The U.S. trade deficit expanded nearly 19% to -$71.5B, as exports declined more than imports declined.
Energy: Global Excess or Shortage of Power?
Israel-Iran hostilities brought a short-term market focus on oil. Longer term, artificial intelligence (AI) electricity needs could create a power shortage, as well as opportunities and risks for investors.
Under the Macroscope: Why Cutting the SLR Matters
Proposed regulatory changes involving the Supplementary Leverage Ratio may have benefits for both large banks and the Treasury market.
Equity Markets Found Traction in June
Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.
Midyear Fixed Income Outlook: Starting Yields Matter Amid Uncertainty
We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.
Fixed-Income Outlook: Expanding the Field
The US economy is important, but it’s not the only one in a global approach.
Balancing Act: Building Resilient Portfolios in a Changing Landscape
In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.
The Lasting Impact of the COVID M2 Surge: Why Diversification Is More Crucial Than Ever
When the Fed increased the M2 money supply by over 40% during the COVID crisis, our instinct was that the implications would extend far beyond a temporary boost to the U.S. stock market and higher inflation. That intuition is proving accurate. We’re now seeing the long-term ripple effects play out in real time across multiple asset classes and global markets.
Two Measures of Inflation: May 2025
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of May 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.8%.
The Four Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the June 30, 2025 close.
The Advisors Who Will Thrive in 2035 Are Planning in 2025
Financial advice is going to be in more demand than ever in 10 years. Is your firm ready for the challenge?
Expand Your Mind and Your Commodity Universe
For good reasons, many investors have a love-hate relationship with commodity investments. Operationally, the annoying K-1 form complicates tax filing, although thankfully the industry has started to launch “no K-1” funds.
How to Nurture Firm Culture, Values When Breaking Out on Your Own
Your firm's culture should reflect your values and your mission.
Equity Outlook: Applying Timeless Insights for Volatile Times Ahead
This year’s formidable challenges have clarified strategic lessons for equity investors to apply in the coming months
JPMorgan’s Blockchain Unit Explores Tokenizing Carbon Credits
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is developing a new service to tokenize carbon credits and is partnering with a trio of carbon companies for an initial trial.
Are Foreigners Changing Their Minds on India?
India has seen foreigners leaving the market for most of 2025. For this and other reasons, India has become one of the bigger shorts in our Systematic Global Macro Strategy’s equity portfolio
Active Management Comes for Private Credit
As direct lending matures and other private credit areas expand, active investors can apply relative value strategies across sectors – and even entire markets – to pursue enhanced outcomes.
Prevailing Skepticism Means Rally Has More Room
Markets notched fresh all-time highs on Friday with a positive tone and geopolitical outlook. Swift retreat in oil back to pre-strike levels, combined with friendlier NATO negotiations and de-escalated fighting in Iran restored risk appetite.
Iran Conflict Equity Implications
A potential conflict with Iran has consistently appeared in our monthly Market Risk Monitor for over two years. Now that risk has materialized. Our equity portfolio managers assess the implications for global markets.
EU to Accept Trump Universal Tariff but Seeks Key Exemptions
The European Union is willing to accept a trade arrangement with the US that includes a 10% universal tariff on many of the bloc’s exports, but wants the US to commit to lower rates than that on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft.
Fireworks Ahead: Jobs Data Loom After Record Highs
Easing trade tensions and hopes the Senate could pass a budget gave stocks an early lift after Friday's record highs. The week is packed with jobs news and Powell talks tomorrow.
Carney Gives Trump a Small Trade Victory in Hunt for Larger Deal
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney handed US President Donald Trump a win in the hope of making bigger gains in trade negotiations.
Great Ideas Need a Plan
There are a number of considerations to put in place before you start any change effort, transition or project. These can help save endless hours of wasted time trying to undo things that didn’t work or going back to fix it again.
Are You Using Trust-Based Languaging?
The words you use are not just tools for communication; they’re signals. Signals that tell your prospects whether you’re someone they can trust or someone they should avoid.
Thinning the Herd: Herd Investing Is a Disservice to Clients
True fiduciary duty isn’t fulfilled by following the crowd. It’s fulfilled by doing the harder thing: making the right call even when it’s the unpopular one. The world doesn’t need more advisors playing not to lose. It needs more who are willing to lead — even if they walk alone.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Slower Contraction in June
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in June, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a fourth straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.8.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Highest Level in Three Years
U.S. manufacturing expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June, with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI reaching a three-year high of 52.9. This was higher than the forecast of 52.0. However, tariffs continued to affect the sector, leading to increased inventory buildup and a sharp acceleration in inflation.
Let AI Explain Why Tesla's Critics Are Losing
Almost everything said about Tesla Inc. these days ranges from bad to worse.
Europe Should Stop Worrying and Learn to Love Nuclear
Just a few decades ago, Europe led the world in adopting nuclear. It relied on the technology for more than 30% of its electricity and accounted for more than 40% of global production.
10-Year Treasury Yield Long-Term Perspective: June 2025
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. At the end of June 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.30%.
Trump Succeeds at Pushing NATO to Spend Five Percent as New Arms Race Begins
Readers of a certain age will no doubt recall President Ronald Reagan launching one of the most ambitious military buildups in American history.
Simmering Down
Growth is expected to decelerate, but not come crashing down.
Not a Good Report on Personal Income and Spending in May
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Thematic ETFs in 2025: What’s Next?
Thematic investing has experienced cycles of popularity over time. In less cautious market environments, investors often turn their attention to ambitious ideas — such as disruptive technologies or other transformative future trends — looking beyond traditional equity ETFs.
Bitcoin’s New Peak: Is It Too Late for Your Clients to Get In?
This article will help you evaluate whether it’s still a good time for clients to gain Bitcoin exposure—even after its recent all-time high—and how to do so responsibly. You’ll learn how Bitcoin fits into a diversified portfolio, what leading financial institutions forecast for its future, and why spot Bitcoin ETFs offer a regulated, practical entry point for long-term investors.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: June 2025
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Two Measures of Consumer Attitudes: June 2025
What are consumers thinking about the economy? Their collective mood offers crucial clues for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike. Two prominent monthly surveys, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), aim to capture this vital pulse. In June, these gauges sent mixed signals: the MCSI rose for the first time in six months, reaching 60.7, while the CCI retreated to 93.0, erasing nearly half of its prior gains.
S&P 500 Set for Best Quarter Since December 2023
Stocks are wrapping up a stellar quarter at all-time highs amid signs of progress in US trade talks while hopes the Federal Reserve will resume its rate cuts drove Treasuries toward their biggest first-half stretch in five years. The dollar eyed its longest monthly slide since 2017.
Fueling AI Data Centers: Behind the Meter Solutions
Despite concerns regarding the electrical power grid, there are solutions to meet the surge in AI-driven energy demand. For example, nuclear energy is making a comeback.
Monitoring Portfolio News Using AI
One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.%MCEPASTEBIN%
Is There an Energy Transition? Yes, But It’s Not What You Think
Are we experiencing an energy transition? According to geologist and fund manager Jane Woodward, we are — and it’s proceeding more quickly than almost anyone expected.
Shell May Still Need M&A After Ruling Out Buying BP
British oil and gas giant Shell Plc has quashed a rumor: It’s not buying BP Plc. But last week’s forceful denial doesn’t address why the M&A chatter gained so much traction, which has less to do with the parlous state of BP than with Shell itself.