Many things in healthcare really have gotten dramatically better and cheaper. Sequencing a human genome, for instance, cost close to a billion dollars in 2003. Today, under $1,500, making CRISPR therapy available to treat a plethora of diseases that once had no cure.
We are in a debt trap. Our political process can’t reduce spending and/or raise taxes enough to balance the budget, so the debt grows and grows. As it does, paying the interest plus the accumulated debt load pulls more capital away from more productive uses. This depresses economic growth, thereby generating even more spending and debt.
While institutions have embraced private markets for decades, individuals have historically had limited access to these potentially valuable and versatile tools. Tony Davidow from Franklin Tempelton Institute demonstrates that private markets can be potentially valuable sources of growth and income during the accumulation and distribution phases of retirement.
The world’s busiest airport is coming to market with a more than $1 billion municipal bond sale, boosting issuance in the lagging airport sector.
Life rarely stands still, and for families caring for a loved one with special needs, change can introduce both emotional and financial complexity. Marriage, divorce, the loss of a parent, an unexpected inheritance, or shifts in public policy may all significantly impact eligibility for benefits, long-term financial security, and family dynamics.
All told, global equities are near all-time highs, despite the sharp June-July semiconductor drawdown. Fundamentally, an eye-popping 50% Q2 SPX earnings growth rate fuels the rally. Of course, it has been a perfect storm of sorts for domestic large-cap profitability.
College planning begins long before college. Learn why welcoming a new child is the ideal time to build a strong financial foundation, explore education savings options and prepare for your family’s future.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation moderated for a second straight month, coming in at 3.4% year-over-year in July. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with economist estimates.
After 10 years, we understand that not every conflict has a clean answer. Advisors value feeling heard and supported through difficult situations. Over time, we’ve learned that genuine engagement and thoughtful communication build more trust than rushing toward incomplete answers.
Clients' financial lives don't operate in separate silos, and their advisory team shouldn't either. Well-designed partnerships should clearly define responsibilities, compensation, compliance obligations, and client communication. Transparent agreements create better experiences for both clients and professionals.
We’ve all seen how AI tools can boost our productivity and efficiency but, like most things in life, the benefits must be weighed against potential risks. Here are five best practices to help guide fiduciaries and ensure they benefit from these tools without running afoul of regulations.
Stocks moved higher as stronger economic data, solid corporate earnings and easing geopolitical concerns helped support investor optimism.
Here are three tips for young investors setting out to build wealth but not sure where to start.
“Sound money,” in its purest form, is money whose supply a government cannot expand at will. Under a gold standard, every dollar is a claim on a fixed weight of gold. You can’t print gold. So the government can’t monetize its deficits, and the money supply grows only as fast as miners pull metal out of the ground, historically around 1.5% a year.
There is no one-size-fits-all individual investment strategy. We all have different needs. Once I decided I needed a portfolio that would work for today, I became convinced that a dividend growth portfolio should be the core of my long-term investment strategy. Not an addition, but the core.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In July, total nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is setting up a reinsurance vehicle with Talcott Financial Group that has so far raised $1 billion.
A good financial plan may bring together every aspect of your financial life into a coordinated strategy, providing a clear view of where you are today and helping you prepare for where you want to go. By understanding your complete financial picture, you can make informed decisions that align with your goals, values, and long-term priorities.
Investors remain cautious despite bullish positioning, as rotations curb speculation while record margin debt and high equity allocations raise longer-term risks.
In this article, Russ Koesterich explains how the recent market rotation has pressured tech stocks while creating an attractive long-term buying opportunity.
Given the current state of inflation and interest rates, it’s probable that many advisors and investors are considering alternative ways of fostering income within their portfolios.
Finding a place to stash the keys to your cryptocurrency hoard has never been easier, thanks to options that run from putting them in a retired Swiss nuclear bunker to the humdrum use of digital-asset exchanges. It’s also never been harder to keep them safe from thieves.
In the span of a few weeks, a new college student takes on loan debt, gets their first credit card offer, and starts managing daily expenses on their own. They're buying groceries, splitting costs with roommates, saying yes to things they probably can't afford yet. No other period of life throws that many financial decisions at someone with that little experience.
When we talk about inflation, we usually focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation measure is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index. What’s the difference and why does the Fed prefer the PCE?
The AI question is not really a technology question for your firm; it is a documentation question wearing a technology costume. Your advisors are already using it, and the SEC has already told you it is watching how you handle it. The only open question is whether, when an examiner asks, you can show your work.
A period of financial recovery for US hospitals is coming to an end as healthcare systems brace for the full force of federal policy changes and a wave of aging baby boomers.
Social Security’s short-term financing crisis is no longer a distant actuarial projection — it is a near-term event with direct implications for current retirees, individuals approaching retirement, and younger workers. Advisors must understand not only the potential fixes, but also the hard constraints that sharply limit what Congress can realistically do in the next several years.
Lately, it seems like you can’t open a financial publication without stumbling across another article declaring the 60/40 portfolio dead. The pitch is everywhere: bonds are broken, the old rules no longer apply, and investors should modernize by swapping the bonds in their portfolio for Bitcoin, gold, or whatever alternative the asset management industry is currently selling.
There are 38% fewer companies listed on U.S. exchanges today than at the peak in the mid-1990s. The forces behind that decline—regulatory burden, the abundance of private capital, and the quiet disappearance of mid-sized public companies—are structural, not cyclical.
In this article, I explain why baby boomers in target date funds (TDFs) should not feel lucky today or in the near future. There’s a 40% chance that the typical TDF will have at least one losing year during the next five years. These are bad odds, especially since retirement with dignity is at stake.
“Carnage” and “exploding” are very misleading descriptors of what is happening to hyperscaler credit spreads. Yes, the basket of CDS spreads is certainly moving upward, but it is not evenly distributed. Oracle's CDS spreads have moved by multiples, while the other four hyperscalers' CDS spreads have increased by a much more subdued amount, and from unusually tight initial levels.
Schwab Sector Views is our six- to 12-month outlook for stock sectors, which represent broad sectors of the economy. The Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR) combines a factor-based approach with a market and economic assessment to determine the ratings.
Energy markets have reached a precarious moment, with the path of prices over the remainder of the year – and potentially beyond – hinging on two key questions.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.13% in June and was up 3.81% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.24% month-over-month and up 0.14% year-over-year.
In the week ending July 25th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 197,000. This represents an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 201,000.
As families prepare for college move-in season, the packing list usually starts with the obvious essentials: bedding, a laptop, chargers, school supplies and plenty of snacks.
The arithmetic of doom on America’s debt and budget shortfalls has been a favorite parlor game for fiscal conservatives since 1971, when Richard Nixon removed the last constraint on federal borrowing by ending the dollar’s convertibility to gold.
Private equity has become easier than ever for individual investors to buy. Founders, executives, physicians, and business owners now regularly see private funds offered through banks, wealth platforms, feeders, evergreen vehicles, or registered interval funds. However, just because these funds are more readily available, and at lower minimums, does not mean they should immediately be invested in.
A continued escalation in the Middle East, where the Iranian-backed Houthis joined the conflict in an attempt to disrupt Saudi Arabian crude shipments that pass through the Red Sea via the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, drove oil prices higher, while new tariff announcements and Alphabet's earnings release created headwinds for equities.
Clients do not need us to predict whether the next 10% move is up or down. They need help staying invested in a way that matches their goals, their time horizon, and their actual tolerance for risk. Staying invested is easier when clients understand what each part of the portfolio is designed to do.
At the party, hosted on a hot day last July at HPS business development head John Christmas’ New Jersey beach house, bandana-clad colleagues across his teams mingled poolside with the wind at their backs. With the addition of HPS, one of the biggest names in private credit, it seemed BlackRock was set to break through in the market in a way that had eluded the asset manager for years.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® unexpectedly inched lower in July, falling 1.4 points to 90.8. The index was below the forecast of 92.4.
If you own treasuries, you need to make two separate decisions rather than one blended bet. The liquidity sleeve holds the bill exposure and does the work people mistakenly ask the long end to do. The duration sleeve stays deliberately small, sized as recession insurance rather than as a conviction call on falling inflation.
The narrative presented in this article is uniquely suited only to the retirement scenario. (And it neglects such complications as tax-deferred accounts, etc.) Other investing narratives will be different — for example, those of pension funds or endowment funds.
Pensions are as healthy as they’ve been for a long while. Maintaining tried and true investment strategies has led the way to current funding levels and may support pension stability for years to come.
In this midyear global outlook summary, the authors revisit Vanguard’s economic and market outlooks and assess how our views have evolved since the start of the year.
Today we’ll consider the interaction between long-term interest rates, the Fed’s limited ability to influence them, inflation and the housing market. And because home prices are the biggest concern for many households, we’ll start with a look at the latest changes there. And then look at the Federal Reserve’s likely reaction.
Google searches for "can I afford a home" are at their highest level in nearly two decades. While a Google search on its own isn't proof of anything, millions of queries might be a proxy for the national vibe.
Russ Koesterich explains gold’s recent fall and lays out his argument for why investors should continue to hold a modest position in their portfolios.
From severe wildfires in northern Ontario to record heat across Europe, extreme weather is back in the headlines. Such events are becoming more frequent and intense, and the risks associated with them are testing the limits of insurability. With our research partners at Columbia Climate School, we examine how strains on the insurance system can transmit climate-related risks through the capital markets.
Making his first appearance on Capitol Hill since becoming Fed Chair in May, Kevin Warsh delivered the chair's semi-annual testimony on monetary policy and the state of the economy to the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services on July 14 and the Senate Banking Committee on July 15.
In the Warsh Fed's new era of two-way risk, bonds offer something rare: potential downside risk mitigation that investors get paid to hold.
The prime culprit was renewed questioning of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout given the increasing amount of capital investment needed to bring it to life and the corresponding costs for those who use the technology weighed against its potential productivity benefits.
When you measure home affordability today against the metric that actually governs the check you write each month, the picture flips. By that measure, buying a home may be easier now than it was for the Boomers and Gen Xers who get blamed for everything.
The second-quarter earnings season kicked off last week with a resounding statement from Wall Street, led by stellar results across the nation's six largest banking institutions.
AI is changing the investment landscape, but fundamentals still matter, and we remain focused on quality companies with growing free cash flow.
A holistic approach to retirement planning involves careful thinking and conversation around investment strategy, tax efficiency, income needs, and estate planning. The goal, of course, is to minimize the drag of taxation on lifetime earnings and wealth accumulation while maintaining both compliance and attention to the client’s priorities and values.
Andy Burnham pledged a “new economic model” for the UK as he sought to reassure Britons that his ascension as their seventh prime minister in little over a decade would bring an end to the country’s political instability.
I’ve been writing about inflation more in recent months and quarters because inflation has become the major driver of the US macroeconomic landscape. This week, we take a deep dive into inflation and interest rates, and at the end, I talk about why I am buying gold for my grandkids.
Today, the mission of the CFP Board of Standards, a 501(c )(6) nonprofit organization, is to credential competent and ethical financial planners, uphold CFP® certification as the recognized standard, and advance the financial planning profession. The mission is no longer to benefit the public. Selling out the public dooms financial planning as a profession. That’s horrible for the vast majority of certificants that want to be held to a higher standard.
For physicians, major financial decisions may rarely affect just one area of their financial life. The real potential risk is failing to understand how those decisions impact everything else.
For many investors and families, tax planning may become a year-end exercise squeezed into November and December. But by the time the calendar turns to the fourth quarter, many of the most effective opportunities are already limited.
The good news is real. The easy trade is not. Growth has held up, artificial intelligence investment is showing up in earnings and capital spending, and fixed income is offering yields that create serious cushion for portfolios.
The bonds sold by hyperscalers to fuel their artificial intelligence ambitions have become a drag on investor portfolios from London to Tokyo.
Private debt is increasingly valued for its potential to help insurers operationally and strategically: support liability matching, improve portfolio design, diversify underlying exposures and, when underwritten well, add resilient excess return.
Builder confidence edged lower in July as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from June to 34 this month, marking the 27th consecutive negative reading.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index sank 5.4% in June to 72.5, the lowest level since January.
The Q2 earnings season is off to a rollercoaster start. The big banks collectively reported strong numbers, boosted by active capital markets and another impressive set of sales & trading revenue. And it was the usual chorus of bank CEO macro commentary:
Although economic conditions did not change much between the first and second quarters, investors were far more bullish in the second quarter.
After a difficult start to the year, investor sentiment reached a low point near the end of March as concerns around inflation, geopolitics, and rising interest rates weighed on risk assets.
What were the key takeaways from last month’s numbers? Our corporate bond specialists look back at the market’s performance and provide incisive commentary to help you make sense of what drove the market—and what may be on the horizon for fixed income investors.
incoln National Corp. is in advanced talks with Talcott Financial Group for a reinsurance deal that would shift billions of dollars of life insurance reserves off its balance sheet, according to people familiar with the deliberations.
LPL Research examines how sticky inflation, Fed leadership changes, and AI-driven borrowing are shaping the fixed income outlook for 2026.
The Fed's recent shift into a more hawkish mode creates concern about banking profits later this year, but second-quarter results are seen strong thanks to IPOs, mergers.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.1 points to 97.4, reaching its highest level since February. However, the index remains below its historical average for a fourth straight month.
Over the next 20 years, the industry’s great wealth transfer is expected to put more than $84 trillion in the hands of new family members and other beneficiaries as Baby Boomers increasingly enter their 80s. This large migration of assets could also signal a great client exodus for advisors, if they aren’t able to connect with the new stewards of this wealth.
Over the past few weeks, data has continued to point to a U.S. labor market that is healing after showing signs of weakness starting in late 2024 and persisting for nearly the entirety of 2025—a condition that spurred the Fed to cut rates even as inflation remained stuck above its 2 percent target.
If there's one thing you should take away from it, it's this: these six measures rarely move together. When they have, twice in 250 years, the country entered a period of real upheaval. Right now, they're moving together again.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% in June as the median home price surged to a record high of $440,600.
It used to be a considered something of a tawdry question, although it could be flattering as well: “What’s your number?” Nowadays, your inquisitor is probably asking about retirement — as in, how much you think you need to retire. And, as it often was before, it’s the wrong question.
Congress is in recess from June 30 through July 13 for the annual July 4 break, so it's relatively quiet in the nation's capital. But there is still plenty worth paying attention to.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the June 2026 close.
Widowhood does not happen on paper. It happens in the middle of grief, changing income, tax questions, family expectations, housing decisions, administrative demands, and a profound shift in identity. The math may still work, but the human operating system has changed. And that is why advisors need to stress test — not only for portfolio survival, but for survivor usability.
After years of working with advisors and studying client behavior, the reasons clients leave come down to three core patterns. They are predictable. They are preventable. And they almost always trace back to a conversation that never happened in the first meeting.
The word fiduciary no longer answers the only question that matters: Whether the advice you are given is shaped by what the advisor earns from giving it. Many advisors will tell you, accurately, that they are fiduciaries, and many will say they have no conflicts without disclosing the ones they hold.
Close to 40 years ago, I moved from Canada to the U.S. after acquiring a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors. I’ve built my entire life and career here, and in all that time, I’ve never stopped marveling at my adopted country.
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global rose 0.5 points to 51.2, indicating a modest rise in service sector activity. The latest reading was just below the forecast of 51.3 and marked the strongest expansion in four months.
Six months is enough time for a lot to change. Your income, your expenses, your goals, and even the broader economy may look different than they did at the start of the year. And a plan that made sense in January might not fit the reality you're living in now.
Insurance & Annuities
Healthcare: What a Mess
Many things in healthcare really have gotten dramatically better and cheaper. Sequencing a human genome, for instance, cost close to a billion dollars in 2003. Today, under $1,500, making CRISPR therapy available to treat a plethora of diseases that once had no cure.
Caught in a Debt Trap
We are in a debt trap. Our political process can’t reduce spending and/or raise taxes enough to balance the budget, so the debt grows and grows. As it does, paying the interest plus the accumulated debt load pulls more capital away from more productive uses. This depresses economic growth, thereby generating even more spending and debt.
Building Better Portfolios With Private Markets: Rethinking Retirement
While institutions have embraced private markets for decades, individuals have historically had limited access to these potentially valuable and versatile tools. Tony Davidow from Franklin Tempelton Institute demonstrates that private markets can be potentially valuable sources of growth and income during the accumulation and distribution phases of retirement.
Atlanta Airport Taps Munis for $1.1 Billion Mega Bond Sale
The world’s busiest airport is coming to market with a more than $1 billion municipal bond sale, boosting issuance in the lagging airport sector.
Updating Your Plan for Life’s Changes: Marriage, Divorce, Inheritance, and Policy Shifts
Life rarely stands still, and for families caring for a loved one with special needs, change can introduce both emotional and financial complexity. Marriage, divorce, the loss of a parent, an unexpected inheritance, or shifts in public policy may all significantly impact eligibility for benefits, long-term financial security, and family dynamics.
Mid-Quarter Investor Conference Calendar: Stocks Heat Up Heading Into Autumn
All told, global equities are near all-time highs, despite the sharp June-July semiconductor drawdown. Fundamentally, an eye-popping 50% Q2 SPX earnings growth rate fuels the rally. Of course, it has been a perfect storm of sorts for domestic large-cap profitability.
College Planning Starts Earlier Than You Think
College planning begins long before college. Learn why welcoming a new child is the ideal time to build a strong financial foundation, explore education savings options and prepare for your family’s future.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: July 2026
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation at 3.4% in July
Inflation moderated for a second straight month, coming in at 3.4% year-over-year in July. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with economist estimates.
10 Lessons From 10 Years of Independence
After 10 years, we understand that not every conflict has a clean answer. Advisors value feeling heard and supported through difficult situations. Over time, we’ve learned that genuine engagement and thoughtful communication build more trust than rushing toward incomplete answers.
Partnerships, Not Silos: A Better Model for Serving Affluent Clients
Clients' financial lives don't operate in separate silos, and their advisory team shouldn't either. Well-designed partnerships should clearly define responsibilities, compensation, compliance obligations, and client communication. Transparent agreements create better experiences for both clients and professionals.
5 Steps To Help Retirement Advisors Compliantly Integrate AI Usage Into Their Practices
We’ve all seen how AI tools can boost our productivity and efficiency but, like most things in life, the benefits must be weighed against potential risks. Here are five best practices to help guide fiduciaries and ensure they benefit from these tools without running afoul of regulations.
Strong Economic Data and Earnings Push Stocks Higher
Stocks moved higher as stronger economic data, solid corporate earnings and easing geopolitical concerns helped support investor optimism.
3 Tips for Young Investors Building Wealth
Here are three tips for young investors setting out to build wealth but not sure where to start.
Sound Money: Be Careful What You Wish For
“Sound money,” in its purest form, is money whose supply a government cannot expand at will. Under a gold standard, every dollar is a claim on a fixed weight of gold. You can’t print gold. So the government can’t monetize its deficits, and the money supply grows only as fast as miners pull metal out of the ground, historically around 1.5% a year.
What’s in Your Portfolio Wallet?
There is no one-size-fits-all individual investment strategy. We all have different needs. Once I decided I needed a portfolio that would work for today, I became convinced that a dividend growth portfolio should be the core of my long-term investment strategy. Not an addition, but the core.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In July, total nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%.
Goldman Sachs Creates $1 Billion Reinsurance Pool With Talcott
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is setting up a reinsurance vehicle with Talcott Financial Group that has so far raised $1 billion.
The Importance of Starting with a Plan
A good financial plan may bring together every aspect of your financial life into a coordinated strategy, providing a clear view of where you are today and helping you prepare for where you want to go. By understanding your complete financial picture, you can make informed decisions that align with your goals, values, and long-term priorities.
The Way You Make Me Feel: Sentiment's Message
Investors remain cautious despite bullish positioning, as rotations curb speculation while record margin debt and high equity allocations raise longer-term risks.
Tech Selloff Creates an Opportunity
In this article, Russ Koesterich explains how the recent market rotation has pressured tech stocks while creating an attractive long-term buying opportunity.
Is It Time to Seize the Annuity Opportunities?
Given the current state of inflation and interest rates, it’s probable that many advisors and investors are considering alternative ways of fostering income within their portfolios.
Keeping Your Bitcoin Riches Safe Has Never Been Harder
Finding a place to stash the keys to your cryptocurrency hoard has never been easier, thanks to options that run from putting them in a retired Swiss nuclear bunker to the humdrum use of digital-asset exchanges. It’s also never been harder to keep them safe from thieves.
The Financial Skills Your College Student Needs Before Move-In Day
In the span of a few weeks, a new college student takes on loan debt, gets their first credit card offer, and starts managing daily expenses on their own. They're buying groceries, splitting costs with roommates, saying yes to things they probably can't afford yet. No other period of life throws that many financial decisions at someone with that little experience.
What Is the PCE and Why Is It the Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge?
When we talk about inflation, we usually focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation measure is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index. What’s the difference and why does the Fed prefer the PCE?
Your Advisors Already Use AI. Your Manual Says They Don’t.
The AI question is not really a technology question for your firm; it is a documentation question wearing a technology costume. Your advisors are already using it, and the SEC has already told you it is watching how you handle it. The only open question is whether, when an examiner asks, you can show your work.
US Hospital Sector to See K-Shaped Path With Federal Cuts Expected
A period of financial recovery for US hospitals is coming to an end as healthcare systems brace for the full force of federal policy changes and a wave of aging baby boomers.
Social Security’s Short-Term Crisis: What Advisors Must Prepare Clients For
Social Security’s short-term financing crisis is no longer a distant actuarial projection — it is a near-term event with direct implications for current retirees, individuals approaching retirement, and younger workers. Advisors must understand not only the potential fixes, but also the hard constraints that sharply limit what Congress can realistically do in the next several years.
Bonds In Your Portfolio: Why Ditching Them Is The Wrong Move
Lately, it seems like you can’t open a financial publication without stumbling across another article declaring the 60/40 portfolio dead. The pitch is everywhere: bonds are broken, the old rules no longer apply, and investors should modernize by swapping the bonds in their portfolio for Bitcoin, gold, or whatever alternative the asset management industry is currently selling.
The Incredible Shrinking Market: Three Decades of De-Equitization—And the First Signs of a Turn
There are 38% fewer companies listed on U.S. exchanges today than at the peak in the mid-1990s. The forces behind that decline—regulatory burden, the abundance of private capital, and the quiet disappearance of mid-sized public companies—are structural, not cyclical.
Baby Boomers Face 40% Risk of Loss in Most Target Date Funds
In this article, I explain why baby boomers in target date funds (TDFs) should not feel lucky today or in the near future. There’s a 40% chance that the typical TDF will have at least one losing year during the next five years. These are bad odds, especially since retirement with dignity is at stake.
Is There Really Carnage in Hyperscaler Credit?
“Carnage” and “exploding” are very misleading descriptors of what is happening to hyperscaler credit spreads. Yes, the basket of CDS spreads is certainly moving upward, but it is not evenly distributed. Oracle's CDS spreads have moved by multiples, while the other four hyperscalers' CDS spreads have increased by a much more subdued amount, and from unusually tight initial levels.
Sector Views: Monthly Stock Sector Outlook
Schwab Sector Views is our six- to 12-month outlook for stock sectors, which represent broad sectors of the economy. The Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR) combines a factor-based approach with a market and economic assessment to determine the ratings.
Geography, Geopolitics, and Gamesmanship Leave Little Room for Error in Energy Markets
Energy markets have reached a precarious moment, with the path of prices over the remainder of the year – and potentially beyond – hinging on two key questions.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.13% in June and was up 3.81% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.24% month-over-month and up 0.14% year-over-year.
Initial Jobless Claims Up 9K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending July 25th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 197,000. This represents an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's figure and was lower than the forecast of 201,000.
An Adulting Checklist for College-Bound Students
As families prepare for college move-in season, the packing list usually starts with the obvious essentials: bedding, a laptop, chargers, school supplies and plenty of snacks.
America Is Undergoing a Massive Debt-for-Equity Swap
The arithmetic of doom on America’s debt and budget shortfalls has been a favorite parlor game for fiscal conservatives since 1971, when Richard Nixon removed the last constraint on federal borrowing by ending the dollar’s convertibility to gold.
Private Equity for Individual Investors: What the Minimums Really Mean
Private equity has become easier than ever for individual investors to buy. Founders, executives, physicians, and business owners now regularly see private funds offered through banks, wealth platforms, feeders, evergreen vehicles, or registered interval funds. However, just because these funds are more readily available, and at lower minimums, does not mean they should immediately be invested in.
Tariffs Complicate the Fed’s Inflation Fight
A continued escalation in the Middle East, where the Iranian-backed Houthis joined the conflict in an attempt to disrupt Saudi Arabian crude shipments that pass through the Red Sea via the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, drove oil prices higher, while new tariff announcements and Alphabet's earnings release created headwinds for equities.
On AI Bubbles & Keeping Clients Invested Without Ignoring Risk
Clients do not need us to predict whether the next 10% move is up or down. They need help staying invested in a way that matches their goals, their time horizon, and their actual tolerance for risk. Staying invested is easier when clients understand what each part of the portfolio is designed to do.
BlackRock Sets Out for Private Credit Glory After Year of Upheaval
At the party, hosted on a hot day last July at HPS business development head John Christmas’ New Jersey beach house, bandana-clad colleagues across his teams mingled poolside with the wind at their backs. With the addition of HPS, one of the biggest names in private credit, it seemed BlackRock was set to break through in the market in a way that had eluded the asset manager for years.
Consumer Confidence Moderated Slightly in July
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® unexpectedly inched lower in July, falling 1.4 points to 90.8. The index was below the forecast of 92.4.
Are US Treasuries Still A Safe Asset?
If you own treasuries, you need to make two separate decisions rather than one blended bet. The liquidity sleeve holds the bill exposure and does the work people mistakenly ask the long end to do. The duration sleeve stays deliberately small, sized as recession insurance rather than as a conviction call on falling inflation.
How to Properly Measure Risk
The narrative presented in this article is uniquely suited only to the retirement scenario. (And it neglects such complications as tax-deferred accounts, etc.) Other investing narratives will be different — for example, those of pension funds or endowment funds.
Liability-Driven Investing Midyear Outlook 2026: Well-Funded Corporate Plans
Pensions are as healthy as they’ve been for a long while. Maintaining tried and true investment strategies has led the way to current funding levels and may support pension stability for years to come.
AI, Oil, and a Changing Global Economy
In this midyear global outlook summary, the authors revisit Vanguard’s economic and market outlooks and assess how our views have evolved since the start of the year.
Long Term Rate Headache
Today we’ll consider the interaction between long-term interest rates, the Fed’s limited ability to influence them, inflation and the housing market. And because home prices are the biggest concern for many households, we’ll start with a look at the latest changes there. And then look at the Federal Reserve’s likely reaction.
Is Housing Still the American Dream?
Google searches for "can I afford a home" are at their highest level in nearly two decades. While a Google search on its own isn't proof of anything, millions of queries might be a proxy for the national vibe.
What is Going on With Gold?
Russ Koesterich explains gold’s recent fall and lays out his argument for why investors should continue to hold a modest position in their portfolios.
At the Edge of Insurability: When Wildfire Risk Becomes Investment Risk
From severe wildfires in northern Ontario to record heat across Europe, extreme weather is back in the headlines. Such events are becoming more frequent and intense, and the risks associated with them are testing the limits of insurability. With our research partners at Columbia Climate School, we examine how strains on the insurance system can transmit climate-related risks through the capital markets.
Washington: What to Watch Now
Making his first appearance on Capitol Hill since becoming Fed Chair in May, Kevin Warsh delivered the chair's semi-annual testimony on monetary policy and the state of the economy to the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services on July 14 and the Senate Banking Committee on July 15.
Old-Fashioned Bond Math for a New-Fashioned Fed
In the Warsh Fed's new era of two-way risk, bonds offer something rare: potential downside risk mitigation that investors get paid to hold.
Market Broadening Gains Momentum as AI Uncertainty Grows
The prime culprit was renewed questioning of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout given the increasing amount of capital investment needed to bring it to life and the corresponding costs for those who use the technology weighed against its potential productivity benefits.
Home Affordability: Better Than Headlines Suggest
When you measure home affordability today against the metric that actually governs the check you write each month, the picture flips. By that measure, buying a home may be easier now than it was for the Boomers and Gen Xers who get blamed for everything.
A Stellar Start: Big Banks Defy Credit Fears to Kick Off Q2 Earnings
The second-quarter earnings season kicked off last week with a resounding statement from Wall Street, led by stellar results across the nation's six largest banking institutions.
Q3 Equity Outlook: AI: A Paradigm Shift
AI is changing the investment landscape, but fundamentals still matter, and we remain focused on quality companies with growing free cash flow.
Integrated Tax Retirement Planning: It’s Not What You Make; It’s What You Keep
A holistic approach to retirement planning involves careful thinking and conversation around investment strategy, tax efficiency, income needs, and estate planning. The goal, of course, is to minimize the drag of taxation on lifetime earnings and wealth accumulation while maintaining both compliance and attention to the client’s priorities and values.
Burnham Promises ‘New Economic Model’ to Bring Stability to UK
Andy Burnham pledged a “new economic model” for the UK as he sought to reassure Britons that his ascension as their seventh prime minister in little over a decade would bring an end to the country’s political instability.
Inflation Conundrums
I’ve been writing about inflation more in recent months and quarters because inflation has become the major driver of the US macroeconomic landscape. This week, we take a deep dive into inflation and interest rates, and at the end, I talk about why I am buying gold for my grandkids.
How the CFP Board Sold Out the Public & the Profession
Today, the mission of the CFP Board of Standards, a 501(c )(6) nonprofit organization, is to credential competent and ethical financial planners, uphold CFP® certification as the recognized standard, and advance the financial planning profession. The mission is no longer to benefit the public. Selling out the public dooms financial planning as a profession. That’s horrible for the vast majority of certificants that want to be held to a higher standard.
The Most Expensive Financial Decisions Physicians Make (And They Aren’t Investment Decisions)
For physicians, major financial decisions may rarely affect just one area of their financial life. The real potential risk is failing to understand how those decisions impact everything else.
Why July is the Perfect Time for Proactive Tax Planning
For many investors and families, tax planning may become a year-end exercise squeezed into November and December. But by the time the calendar turns to the fourth quarter, many of the most effective opportunities are already limited.
Getting Serious in Summer Markets
The good news is real. The easy trade is not. Growth has held up, artificial intelligence investment is showing up in earnings and capital spending, and fixed income is offering yields that create serious cushion for portfolios.
Hyperscalers Are Dragging Down Bond Gauges Across Global Markets
The bonds sold by hyperscalers to fuel their artificial intelligence ambitions have become a drag on investor portfolios from London to Tokyo.
The Rise and Rise of Private Debt for Insurance Investors
Private debt is increasingly valued for its potential to help insurers operationally and strategically: support liability matching, improve portfolio design, diversify underlying exposures and, when underwritten well, add resilient excess return.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Affordability Challenges Pull Down Builder Sentiment
Builder confidence edged lower in July as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from June to 34 this month, marking the 27th consecutive negative reading.
Pending Home Sales Sink 5% in June
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index sank 5.4% in June to 72.5, the lowest level since January.
SaaSpocalypse Part II? IBM’s Preliminary Earnings Report Rattles Software
The Q2 earnings season is off to a rollercoaster start. The big banks collectively reported strong numbers, boosted by active capital markets and another impressive set of sales & trading revenue. And it was the usual chorus of bank CEO macro commentary:
Q3 Strategic Income Outlook: Perception Is Reality
Although economic conditions did not change much between the first and second quarters, investors were far more bullish in the second quarter.
From First-Quarter Fear to Renewed Optimism
After a difficult start to the year, investor sentiment reached a low point near the end of March as concerns around inflation, geopolitics, and rising interest rates weighed on risk assets.
Corporate Bond Market Insight - Resilient Growth Meets Rising Inflation
What were the key takeaways from last month’s numbers? Our corporate bond specialists look back at the market’s performance and provide incisive commentary to help you make sense of what drove the market—and what may be on the horizon for fixed income investors.
Lincoln in Talks With Talcott for Multibillion-Dollar Risk Deal
incoln National Corp. is in advanced talks with Talcott Financial Group for a reinsurance deal that would shift billions of dollars of life insurance reserves off its balance sheet, according to people familiar with the deliberations.
Keep Calm and Clip Coupons
LPL Research examines how sticky inflation, Fed leadership changes, and AI-driven borrowing are shaping the fixed income outlook for 2026.
Q2 Bank Earnings Preview: Hawkish Fed Pivot Eyed
The Fed's recent shift into a more hawkish mode creates concern about banking profits later this year, but second-quarter results are seen strong thanks to IPOs, mergers.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Picks Up in June
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.1 points to 97.4, reaching its highest level since February. However, the index remains below its historical average for a fourth straight month.
Making Sure the ‘Great Wealth Transfer’ Doesn’t Turn Into the ‘Great Client Exodus’
Over the next 20 years, the industry’s great wealth transfer is expected to put more than $84 trillion in the hands of new family members and other beneficiaries as Baby Boomers increasingly enter their 80s. This large migration of assets could also signal a great client exodus for advisors, if they aren’t able to connect with the new stewards of this wealth.
Labor Market Strength Shifts Focus Back to Inflation
Over the past few weeks, data has continued to point to a U.S. labor market that is healing after showing signs of weakness starting in late 2024 and persisting for nearly the entirety of 2025—a condition that spurred the Fed to cut rates even as inflation remained stuck above its 2 percent target.
America Turns 250. Yet The Data Isn't Celebrating
If there's one thing you should take away from it, it's this: these six measures rarely move together. When they have, twice in 250 years, the country entered a period of real upheaval. Right now, they're moving together again.
Unemployment Claims and the CLF as a Recession Indicator: June 2026
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Existing Home Sales Drop in June as Median Prices Hit All-Time High
Existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% in June as the median home price surged to a record high of $440,600.
Stop Chasing a ‘Magic Number’ for Retirement
It used to be a considered something of a tawdry question, although it could be flattering as well: “What’s your number?” Nowadays, your inquisitor is probably asking about retirement — as in, how much you think you need to retire. And, as it often was before, it’s the wrong question.
Washington: What to Watch Now
Congress is in recess from June 30 through July 13 for the annual July 4 break, so it's relatively quiet in the nation's capital. But there is still plenty worth paying attention to.
The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq: Real Returns Since 2000 Peak (June 2026)
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the June 2026 close.
The Survivor Stress Test: When the Couple’s Retirement Plan Becomes a Widow’s Plan
Widowhood does not happen on paper. It happens in the middle of grief, changing income, tax questions, family expectations, housing decisions, administrative demands, and a profound shift in identity. The math may still work, but the human operating system has changed. And that is why advisors need to stress test — not only for portfolio survival, but for survivor usability.
Inoculate Before They Leave: How a Proactive Strategy Stops Client Attrition
After years of working with advisors and studying client behavior, the reasons clients leave come down to three core patterns. They are predictable. They are preventable. And they almost always trace back to a conversation that never happened in the first meeting.
Why Asking The Fiduciary Question Is No Longer Enough
The word fiduciary no longer answers the only question that matters: Whether the advice you are given is shaped by what the advisor earns from giving it. Many advisors will tell you, accurately, that they are fiduciaries, and many will say they have no conflicts without disclosing the ones they hold.
250 Years In, and the Case for America Has Never Been Stronger
Close to 40 years ago, I moved from Canada to the U.S. after acquiring a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors. I’ve built my entire life and career here, and in all that time, I’ve never stopped marveling at my adopted country.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Reaches 4-Month High
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global rose 0.5 points to 51.2, indicating a modest rise in service sector activity. The latest reading was just below the forecast of 51.3 and marked the strongest expansion in four months.
Mid-Year Money Check-In: Is Your Plan Still Working?
Six months is enough time for a lot to change. Your income, your expenses, your goals, and even the broader economy may look different than they did at the start of the year. And a plan that made sense in January might not fit the reality you're living in now.