Cash and Short-Term Funds

While the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at the latest meeting, investors increasingly speculate that rate hikes are on the table in 2026.

The money is REAL. The question was never whether it exists. It’s who’s spending it, and what they borrowed to do it. When the wall of cash and the bottom half finally commit to risk at the same moment the Fed turns hawkish, that’s not the start of something. That’s the part of the cycle where the careful investor gets paid to be careful.

Friedman was reasoning from the equation of exchange, MV = PQ. Money times velocity equals prices times real output. It’s an identity, not a theory. Where it gets interesting is when you ask which variable does the work.

The AI boom goes from strength to strength. Big technology companies are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into chips, data centers and power-hungry infrastructure. One estimate puts annual AI infrastructure investment above $650 billion in 2025 and potentially over $800 billion in 2026..

Exposure to critical minerals, specifically rare earths, provides an opportunity for investors to capitalize on growth and diversify their portfolios simultaneously. However, there are also geopolitical implications that investors should know about as well. In particular, more nations are reducing their reliance on China.

Building resilient portfolios in markets delivering mixed messages can be a challenging affair. In our ongoing engagement with the retail and advisor community at VettaFi, we hear first-hand just how investors are tackling that challenge this year.

For years, the retirement industry has framed the challenge the same way: Participants aren’t engaged enough. Employers need better communication. Advisors need to educate more.

There are short duration bonds and corresponding ETFs. For advisors and fixed income investors who really want to minimize interest rate risk, there are ultra-short alternatives. Those products are worth considering this year.

The top-performing non-leveraged ETFs of 2026 span a distinct blend of digital assets, next-generation semiconductor technology, and localized international equity plays. For advisors assessing portfolio allocations heading into the second half of the year, these performance figures highlight a sustained risk-on appetite among investors.

The top-performing non-leveraged ETFs of 2026 span a distinct blend of digital assets and localized international equity plays.

Reducing equity exposure during periods of elevated risk is not the same as market timing. The financial industry has spend decades blurring that distinction.

The essential feature of a useful alternative asset isn’t that it’s unusual or exotic, but that its returns aren’t tightly linked to the risks that already dominate the portfolio. The value of an alternative asset comes from the way it interacts with the other assets in the portfolio.

That Buffett cash hoard has also created a lot of speculation, innuendo, and assumptions, which is what I want to walk through in today’s discussion. Primarily, what that cash hoard actually represents, the popular theories explaining it, and what it really costs shareholders to hold.

Kevin Warsh was confirmed this week as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors. As we discussed in a recent article, his transition comes at a delicate time; inflation is rising, and questions about the Fed’s independence are pressing. The honeymoon period will be brief.

What to do? Does one capitulate and chase the bubble at the highest valuations in history? Does one wring their hands at the prospect of a bubble that might only go higher and higher forever without end? My hope is that this month’s comment will offer both perspective and confidence that it is not necessary to chase current extremes, nor to be anxious even about the possibility of steeper ones.

The defining feature of a Ponzi scheme is that it persuades investors to pay for future cash flows that, at least in part, don’t actually exist, while creating the impression that those cash flows imply an attractive return on the price investors pay. If we look carefully at the record valuation extremes in the equity market, and the wildly elevated profit margins that investors appear to view as permanent, we can already see the potential for difficult, even tragic outcomes for investors.

Congressional confirmation hearings tend to generate far more noise than signal, and this one was no exception. Between politicians posturing for the cameras in hopes of becoming their party’s next rising star, and nominees exercising extreme caution to avoid missteps under oath, these hearings rarely produce actionable insights.

Geopolitical conflict is forcing the markets to think critically about critical minerals. More specifically, the importance of critical materials has shifted from industrial use to a vital component in national defense and energy security.

On Wednesday, April 15, Sprott Asset Management expanded its lineup of exchange-traded funds with the debut of the Sprott Rare Earths Ex-China ETF (REXC). According to Sprott, REXC is the only ETF on the market that is offering a focus on rare earth companies outside China.

Late last year, the Federal Reserve ended its latest quantitative tightening (QT) program: the process by which it shrinks its balance sheet by selling securities or letting them mature without reinvestment.

The escalating conflict in the Middle East — especially the closure of the Strait of the Hormuz — had an adverse effect on many investment strategies in March, and gold was no exception. The spot gold price closed out March at $4,668.06.

Yield curves exist for many products and can be interrelated, yet they also carry distinctive characteristics. Normally, long-term rates are higher than short-term rates because investors demand a higher return for lending money over longer periods. This arrangement would create an upward-sloping curve much like the Treasury curves displayed to the right.

The traditional 60/40 portfolio is undergoing a structural renovation, but the fixed income sleeve is proving difficult to stabilize.

Recent weeks have been a whirlwind of headlines centered on the Middle East conflict and rising oil and gas prices, particularly as the conflict enters its fourth full week.

ETF fees are falling, along with mutual fund fees, according to a new report looking back over multiple decades.

Every few months, a headline appears declaring that the U.S. dollar’s reign as the world’s reserve currency is over. China is dumping Treasuries. Central banks are hoarding gold.

The Securities and Exchange Commission should focus on enabling retail investor access to innovation rather than limiting products through merit-based judgments, according to Commissioner Hester Peirce. In a discussion with Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at TMX VettaFi, during the Exchange conference in Las Vegas, Peirce shared insight from her term at the SEC and examined the agency’s role moving forward.

The word 'equilibrium' is an invitation to recognize that nothing exists by itself, alone. Subject and object are two sides of the same coin – their interaction is a single phenomenon. That perspective can offer a great deal of insight about economics, financial markets, speculative bubbles, passive investing, and nearly everything in existence.

Recessions are a regular part of the economic cycle, which means planning ahead is essential. You can't control the economy, but you can take steps to help protect your savings, manage debt, and keep your goals on track. Here are some smart ways to prepare when the economy shifts.

January is a time to revisit financial plans, make changes, and ensure objectives are being met. This review isn’t about exposing bad financial plans, but instead finding what is outdated and revising.

As the hunt for yield and stability remains a cornerstone of portfolios in 2026, a group of iShares short-term bond ETFs have made a strategic move to the Big Board today.

Not long ago, CLO ETFs were niche vehicles only talked about at credit conferences and in sophisticated bond manager circles. But fast forward to 2026, and they’ve entered the mainstream – drawing meaningful interest from both institutions and retail investors.

To love a bubble but hate a crash is to misunderstand the market. A bubble is a crash on its way to becoming. A crash is a bull market on its way to becoming. All we can do is to accept, and as difficult as it may be – embrace – whatever form we have in the present moment, so we can do our best with each of them.

While occasional bouts of volatility are likely, we expect the fixed income markets to provide ballast for portfolios and are likely to deliver solid returns in 2026.

Buildout of blockchain-based infrastructure is entering a new phase. The focus in 2025 was on stablecoins and their emergence as the cross-over use case that captured interest from both crypto-native and traditional financial participants.

Our underlying theme for 2026 is that investors should focus on Process Over Predictions. The instinct of many investors is to chase the "winners" of the previous cycle or expect spectacular growth to continue indefinitely.

Client demand for tax planning is high, yet many advisors may still fall short of meeting expectations. Direct indexing can offer tax benefits such as the potential for tax-loss harvesting but remains underutilized across the advisor community.

Morgan agreed that the move looks parabolic on a chart. He also cautioned against assuming the rally is just retail euphoria. He pointed out that many physical silver holders have been net sellers even as prices rise, which implies the strongest buying pressure may be coming from larger, more strategic sources.

As political pressure on the Federal Reserve intensifies and markets ponder the nomination of a new Chair, understanding this chain of risk is increasingly important for investors. Equity valuations are heavily affected by expectations for long-term cash flows, along with the interest rates and risk-premiums that drive how much investors are willing to pay for those future dollars.

At GMO, we have always defined a bubble as a two-standard deviation divergence of the price of any asset class above its long-term real price trend. The U.S. stock market has now been in bubble territory for a prolonged period. Sooner or later, the bubble will burst and the price will return to its historic level.

Another blockbuster year for bond ETFs is in the books. After two straight years of record net inflows, taxable fixed income ETF assets have nearly doubled since 2020 – crossing the $2 trillion mark. But the big story in 2026 will be rising pressure to move out of money market funds.

According to Baiocchi, advisors are reevaluating portfolios and recognizing gaps in exposure to companies driving major market themes.

With 2025 in the books, it will be a difficult year to top for fixed income exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but Morningstar is predicting more excitement to come. That should keep fixed income investors fixated on what new developments the space brings this year.

The key point, in our view, is that this combination of shocks is not likely to be an isolated occurrence in 2026 or beyond.

The defining feature of every bubble is the same: a growing inconsistency between the long-term returns that investors expect in their heads - based on extrapolation of the past, and the long-term returns that properly relate prices to likely future cash flows - based on valuations. Every bubble smuggles the same tragic past into the same tragic future by packaging it with new wrinkles that convince investors that this time is different. Ultimately, they still end the same way.

We examine what’s driving gold’s ascent — from central bank reserves to portfolio hedging — and why it can play a strategic role for investors.

Participants’ financial well-being is our top priority, and we know that they’re struggling with emergency savings, so we’re offering a way for participants to save with confidence—the Vanguard Cash Plus Account.

As we get ready to close out 2025, one stand-out trend in the U.S. Treasury (UST) market has been the steepening of the yield curve. The question now is whether this trend will continue into 2026, and if it does, how should investors position their bond portfolios?

AI remains the economy’s most powerful growth engine, but our Small Cap Growth team believes several other areas are also likely to deliver significant upside in the near-to-medium term.

This article explores the tension between individual economic outlooks and the institutional desire for collective stability in a highly scrutinized environment.

The era of "easy" yield in money market funds is ending as the Federal Reserve begins its long-awaited series of rate cuts. To stay ahead of shifting borrowing costs, investors are increasingly looking toward the flexibility and proprietary research of actively managed fixed income ETFs.

What were the key takeaways from last month’s numbers? Our corporate bond specialists look back at the market’s performance and provide incisive commentary to help you make sense of what drove the market—and what may be on the horizon for fixed income investors.

Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.

Dividends offer a powerful dual benefit: they provide an immediate, consistent stream of passive income, while also being an incredible tool for long-term wealth building through the magic of compounding when reinvested. The yield is the essential metric that measures this horsepower, allowing investors to effectively compare and manage their income-generating investments.

The Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut in December, then signaled a more data-dependent path ahead. Barring an economic shock, we probably won’t see another rate cut until the second half of next year.

Despite the concern post-2024 election about rising U.S. deficits and a potential return of "bond vigilantes," the supply side of the Treasury market has remained stable, with deficits settling near the $1.8 trillion baseline.

The launch of multi-token crypto products (i.e., crypto index ETFs) signals that many issuers believe the next growth phase in crypto ETFs will be driven by investors who want a rules-based basket approach rather than single asset calls.

Active fixed income ETFs took center stage at VettaFi's recent 2026 Market Outlook Symposium, with two industry leaders sharing thoughts.