Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s passing has brought a stream of retrospectives on his approaches to managing the economy. He erred on the side of parsimony, favoring short public statements. Greenspan’s vague communication style offered little clarity over the future path of interest rates.
The second quarter wraps up today, and it was a good one. With the S&P 500 having returned more than 14% (including dividends) with just one trading day left, it will almost certainly end up being the best quarter for the index since the second quarter of 2020. Technology was the leader despite the June weakness.
The artificial intelligence boom has a power problem, and Wall Street is betting billions on companies that promise to solve it — even if some of the technology hasn’t been fully developed yet.
A look at the resilient global economy, evolving market opportunities, and key risks shaping the investment outlook.
At first glance, allocating to emerging markets appears to add diversification to a portfolio. Look more closely, and the reality is more nuanced. In the late 1990s, the MSCI EM index was dominated by materials and telecoms, driven by the growth of mobile telephony and the internet bubble.
June saw strong market fundamentals once again in conflict with macroeconomic uncertainties, creating a choppy market. While a durable peace plan with Iran is seemingly underway, investors have regarded the negotiations with caution, pricing in potential setbacks.
It’s been a long time coming for the asset management world, but ETF share classes are now a reality. Fidelity Investments has joined that movement, with the launch of its first ETF share classes for some of its mutual funds.
U.S. manufacturing expanded for an eleventh straight month in June but the growth eased to its lowest level in three months. The S&P Global PMI fell 1.2 points to 53.9 last month, falling short of the 55.7 forecast.
The firms that operate rigorous vendor evaluation will compound two advantages simultaneously: They buy the right tools now, and their advisors trust them when the next generation of AI arrives. In a decade that will be defined by the industry's capacity to do more with fewer people, that trust is a strategic asset.
While the Middle East is still far from calm, it does appear the worst of the volatility in the region is in the past. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is in place, with negotiations underway for a more durable peace.
Startup equity decisions often happen before a founder has a full advisory team in place. Formation documents get signed, vesting schedules are approved, and the tax consequences may not feel urgent because the company is still young.
For decades, financial advisors have built strong relationships by helping clients manage IRAs, taxable accounts, and rollover assets after they leave an employer. Meanwhile, a significant, often the largest pool, of client wealth has quietly remained out of reach: assets inside workplace retirement plans.
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The OBBBA created something the industry rarely gets: a defined planning window without a hard deadline attached. Exemptions are historically high, the law has no sunset, and there's a real body of existing work that needs revisiting. The advisors who treat this as an opportunity, rather than waiting for a client to ask, will drive much stronger outcomes compared to those who don’t.
The ETF ecosystem is always changing and growing. Thanks to the ETF’s flexibility, transparency, and tradability, it can help investors achieve plenty of bespoke goals. That even includes investing with an eye towards philanthropic causes as with philanthropic ETFs ASD and DUTY.
Ten years ago this week, the world watched the United Kingdom vote to walk away from the European Union. While the political class was clutching its pearls and every talking head on television was promising Armageddon by Christmas, I told you something different.
Alan Greenspan passed away last week at the ripe old age of 100. Other than presidents, few Americans have wielded as much power in the arena of economic policy as Greenspan did during his roughly eighteen years and five months at the helm of the Federal Reserve.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Despite strong gains in 2026 so far, commodities have remained supported by constrained supply, resilient demand and long investment lead times, pointing to a cycle that seems to remain fundamentally intact.
Whether you’re a seasoned RIA owner looking to accelerate organic growth or a next-gen Advisor building your practice from the ground up, the same fundamentals apply: say clearly who you help, show up consistently where prospects look, and make sure your online presence tells the right story.
A widening confidence gap in non-traded investment vehicles is testing private credit valuations, sharpening the case for manager selection and diversification beyond direct lending.
Social Security is now just six years away from insolvency, according to the latest annual assessment. Many in Congress might like to keep on ignoring the problem, as they have for years, but this won’t be an option much longer. Senators elected in November will see the system’s trust fund empty during their terms.
The dominant theme this week was a tug of war between improving macroeconomic conditions and weakness in parts of the technology sector.
Markets have been hyper-focused on AI, crypto and buffer ETFs, but REIT ETFs have quietly staged an impressive comeback. The REIT terrain has shifted rapidly over recent years, and forward-looking investors and advisors have taken notice.
Circumstances since 2020 have repeatedly demonstrated how adaptable the economy is in the face of new challenges. We see no reason for that resilience to fade in the balance of the year.
I’m hopeful new chair Kevin Warsh will help change the Fed’s inflation-tolerating institutional culture. Early signs look positive. Today we’ll talk about how insidious inflation is and why those who think a little inflation is fine should have their heads examined. It is not fine… for anyone.
The AI boom goes from strength to strength. Big technology companies are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into chips, data centers and power-hungry infrastructure. One estimate puts annual AI infrastructure investment above $650 billion in 2025 and potentially over $800 billion in 2026..
Model portfolios have helped many advisors solve for scale. The next challenge is more nuanced: how do advisors keep that scale while delivering more personalization, tax awareness and differentiated value to clients?
Before your firm starts using AI across operations, client service, reporting, or advisor workflows, there’s one basic question leadership needs to answer: what kind of AI are we talking about?
As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
What if the debt crisis investors have feared is not still ahead, but already here, unfolding in plain sight? In his June insight, Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro & Customized Investing, makes the case that the market may already be penalizing U.S. fiscal excess, not through a dramatic collapse, but through a slow burn with real consequences for investors and the broader economy.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.70% in May and was up 3.62% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.25% month-over-month and down 0.43% year-over-year.
Market professionals already on edge about the staying power of soaring artificial intelligence stocks are starting to grapple with another risk: public anger toward the technology.
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up up 0.68% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.23%.
Municipal bonds often see a seasonal lift during the summer months. This pattern, known as summer technicals, stems from a straightforward supply and demand imbalance that tends to favor bond prices. Over the past ten years, the summer months (May through July) have generally been positive months for the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, with monthly returns averaging +0.83%, +0.43%, and +0.82%, respectively.
Total-portfolio thinking is gaining momentum across institutional investing, with investors looking to adopt portfolio-wide approaches that integrate risk, liquidity, and capital allocation decisions. As institutions manage broader opportunity sets and place greater emphasis on portfolio integration, total-portfolio thinking is increasingly influencing how they set objectives, allocate capital, implement strategies, and govern portfolios.
In a digital-first environment, reputation is no longer a byproduct of success; it is an asset class in its own right. For ultra-high-net-worth families, reputation capital can influence investment opportunities, business partnerships, philanthropic impact, and multigenerational legacy. It can also be exposed, amplified, or undermined in real time.
Advisors have largely made up their minds about AI. What they have not settled is governance. AI adoption ran ahead of policy, the way it usually does, and the gap between the two is where the trouble starts.
The most important development this week was not the Federal Reserve meeting itself, but the sharp and unexpected decline in oil prices. Just days ago, many market participants expected crude to remain elevated amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Instead, WTI crude briefly traded with a 73 handle, only modestly above its pre-conflict levels and far below the $90-$100 range that many feared.
The ongoing World Cup showcases three countries working together. The USMCA review will reveal whether that cooperation extends beyond sport. A shared platform can continue to deliver strong outcomes, but only if the rules remain clear, stable and broadly accepted.
The rising debt burden of the U.S. government is becoming an increasingly serious economic concern. While it may not be an immediate crisis, it has the characteristics of a slow-moving domestic pandemic.
The corporate world is awash in capex. Leaders in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into tech projects, and uncertainty surrounds their profitability. For now, the market rewards this use of cash, but it’s not without pitfalls. Share buybacks, for instance, are seen as a net loser, while the S&P 500® dividend yield has sunk toward all-time lows near 1%.
All of this is a warning to other developed markets with debt levels on the verge of exceeding their gross domestic product. Following the Truss chaos of four years ago, the market has decided to approach the UK through a lens of always assuming the worst, a default that continues to cost British taxpayers in the form of higher interest rates.
The fixed income environment continues to project uncertainty, as higher-for-longer interest rates persist amid sticky inflation. Investors may want to lean on the expertise of active managers when deciding between an active and indexed fund.
The US-Iran conflict – and its impact on oil prices – has dominated headlines over the past three months. Higher oil prices have pushed inflation to a three‑year high, reshaping the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.
On Monday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran have reached a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally flows.
The most consequential decisions a founder will face, equity gifting before valuations increase, trust structures timed ahead of a sale, QSBS qualification built while eligibility still exists, all must be decided before liquidity. Once the transaction closes, much of what was available earlier is simply gone.
The results of Kevin Warsh’s first official set of meetings on monetary policy as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve were like a breath of fresh air.
The announcement of an extended ceasefire in the Middle East is welcome news. The accord, which is scheduled to be signed late this week, reduces a source of geopolitical uncertainty that has hovered over the global economy. But significant risks remain.
Data center developers are struggling to connect to the power grid and, not unrelatedly, connect with people. Perhaps half the data center projects due to start operating this year won’t arrive on time, according to Currence, an artificial intelligence analytics firm.
Start with the disconnect itself. If you only looked at the Michigan headline, you’d assume the country was in a depression. However, when you look at what people are actually doing, the picture changes completely.
At graduation ceremonies, audiences are often reminded to limit their audible reactions and hold applause, so that all graduates’ names can be heard. But a few viral videos this year showed a new disturbance to be managed: graduating students booing speakers if they extolled the virtues of artificial intelligence (AI).
Roth conversions provide tax-free retirement income to hedge against future tax hikes, but they trigger an immediate tax bill. Fortunately, strategic planning can help minimize this upfront cost.
We all know that Congress is never going to allow Social Security not to be paid. This begs a number of questions. Will the shortfall be addressed by tax increases, benefit reductions, increasing the retirement age, changing the inflation measures, means testing or some combination of these and other solutions?
Kevin Warsh came out as a hawk during his first press conference as Federal Reserve (Fed) chair. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai believes that he may be the most hawkish chair since Paul Volcker. Warsh stressed that the Fed can and will bring inflation back to 2%, and signaled his preference for a smaller balance sheet and no forward guidance—a welcome return to more orthodox monetary policy.
Exposure to critical minerals, specifically rare earths, provides an opportunity for investors to capitalize on growth and diversify their portfolios simultaneously. However, there are also geopolitical implications that investors should know about as well. In particular, more nations are reducing their reliance on China.
Reserve managers' decisions on EM debt go beyond investment potential—they must also weigh considerations such as governance, resources and liquidity.
One of the key questions for investment professionals is whether oil prices will return to pre-war levels once the Middle East crisis is resolved. At the same time, many are asking why oil prices are not higher, especially since the latest geopolitical deal recently pushed crude to its lowest level since the initial attack.
Vanderbilt sold about $320 million of tax-exempt bonds through a Tennessee authority in 2024. Some of those securities that are due in 2035 traded Tuesday for a yield of about 3.06%, only slightly above the 2.83% benchmark for top-rated munis, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
It’s a busy finish to the first half on the corporate event calendar. The bulls have the lead, but the bears have had their moments of glory so far this year. A handful of key AGMs, conferences, and earnings events will keep investors on their toes amid a colorful macro backdrop.
In August 2025, the US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening the investments available in defined contribution plans (DC plans). On March 30, 2026, the US Department of Labor issued proposed guidance regarding a plan fiduciary’s selection of investments, including private market and other alternative investments, in 401(k) plans.
Home values fell for the first time in nine months in May, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. Additionally, after adjusting for inflation, real home values dropped even more sharply, remaining at their lowest level in over five years.
Compliance risks happen when AI-enabled workflows expand faster than their governance model. It becomes a blind spot when AI solutions are built faster than the organization’s ability to map them against the right regulatory, operational, and data-governance controls.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index jumped 3.8% in May to 76.8, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain and highest level in six months.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s asset-management arm is urging investors to stick with stocks and other higher-risk assets in the second half of 2026, arguing that an AI investment boom and resilient consumers should keep the expansion intact despite persistent inflation and a Federal Reserve on hold.
This week J.P. Morgan Asset Management launched two actively managed municipal bond ETFs focused on California and New York debt, offering investors a way to earn tax-free income inside a more flexible and transparent fund structure.
On June 12, SpaceX went public with a US$2 trillion valuation—the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever, by far. It has been the most anticipated IPO in more than two decades and likely ushers in a series of high-profile IPOs in the coming months, including for OpenAI and Anthropic.
J.P. Morgan converted two mutual funds into active muni ETFs for California and New York investors seeking tax-free income.
A massive advisor retirement wave is reshaping wealth management. Discover how $2.5 trillion in assets may fuel industry transformation.
Advisors, who have recently broken away to start their own shops, must learn to strike the right balance when getting personal with clients — and part of that requires data.
Philanthropy conversations can open the door to multigenerational planning, as clients can bring in their children to contribute to discussions of shared values and charitable goals. For advisors, that creates an opportunity to become not just a financial resource, but a trusted partner who helps clients connect wealth with purpose.
Tariff rates will vary, but their persistence is certain.
For many investors, retirement planning becomes most tangible at the start and end of the year. Goals are set in January, then revisited during year-end tax and financial planning discussions. But the middle of the year offers an equally valuable opportunity: a chance to evaluate progress, reassess assumptions, and make adjustments before small issues become larger challenges.
On the heels of arranging a record $85 billion equity-raise for Alphabet Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has scored a lesser-known victory for the tech giant in the municipal bond market.
The US insurance industry recently joined the fossil-fuel industry in its fight to avoid being sued over the damage oil, gas and coal emissions have done to the planet. Given that insurers are supposedly among the world’s biggest sufferers of those same climate-fueled losses, this was a perplexing choice — until you think about why Big Insurance and Big Oil might be on the same team.
There are two processes that we cannot escape: aging and math. This applies not only to human beings but also to large government social-insurance programs.
Builder confidence edged lower in June as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from May to 35 this month, marking the 26th consecutive negative reading.
During this time of year, we like to take stock of what happened in the first half of the year and compare it with the expectations we had at the beginning of the year when we published our full-year outlooks.
Dispersion continues to be the definitive story of 2026. As we progress through June and approach the conclusion of the first half of the year, the equity landscape remains distinctly bifurcated. Pockets of deep structural growth stand in contrast to areas grappling with macro headwinds.
In this month’s Allocation Views, strong corporate fundamentals and resilient growth fuel our continued optimism toward equities into June, despite persistent inflation and more restrictive monetary policy.
In addition to a greater range of chips supporting AI development, several factors could cause the current cycle to last longer than expected.
While owning a significant amount of a successful stock can be incredibly lucrative – especially in a company on the rise – the more you own of a single equity, the more closely your personal financial fate is tied to its performance.
For many investors, wealth management still feels segmented. Investments are handled in one meeting, taxes in another, estate planning somewhere else, and major life decisions often happen independently of all three.
For many registered investment advisors (RIAs), success has traditionally been measured in assets under management (AUM). As the industry evolves and consolidation accelerates, a broader question is emerging: are you building a practice or an enterprise?
For more than four decades, PIMCO’s Secular Forum has provided a disciplined framework for stepping back from short-term market noise to assess the structural forces that will shape the global economy and markets over the next five years. Yet rarely has this exercise been more consequential than it has recently.
After more than three years of underperformance, our prognosis for global health care stocks remains positive. The sector now offers a broader set of high-quality companies at valuations that appear increasingly disconnected from fair value.
Equity issuance is all the rage. The SpaceX (SPCX) IPO on Friday, Alphabet’s (GOOGL) up-sized secondary announced last week, and a slew of other major go-public names over the remainder of 2026 (Anthropic, OpenAI) buck the years-long trend of intense buybacks and shareholder-friendly activities by the world’s most valuable companies.
Attractive yields and strong credit fundamentals are setting the municipal bond market up for a solid second half of the year, said Paul Malloy, the head of municipals at The Vanguard Group Inc.
Tax Loss Harvesting
Should The Fed Look Forward?
Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s passing has brought a stream of retrospectives on his approaches to managing the economy. He erred on the side of parsimony, favoring short public statements. Greenspan’s vague communication style offered little clarity over the future path of interest rates.
What to Watch This Earnings Season
The second quarter wraps up today, and it was a good one. With the S&P 500 having returned more than 14% (including dividends) with just one trading day left, it will almost certainly end up being the best quarter for the index since the second quarter of 2020. Technology was the leader despite the June weakness.
AI Power Crunch Has Investors Seeking Next IPO Winners
The artificial intelligence boom has a power problem, and Wall Street is betting billions on companies that promise to solve it — even if some of the technology hasn’t been fully developed yet.
Global Investment Outlook—Resilience
A look at the resilient global economy, evolving market opportunities, and key risks shaping the investment outlook.
Beneath the Surface: Uncovering True Diversification in Emerging Markets
At first glance, allocating to emerging markets appears to add diversification to a portfolio. Look more closely, and the reality is more nuanced. In the late 1990s, the MSCI EM index was dominated by materials and telecoms, driven by the growth of mobile telephony and the internet bubble.
June Review: Markets Remain Resilient Amid Oil and Inflation Uncertainty
June saw strong market fundamentals once again in conflict with macroeconomic uncertainties, creating a choppy market. While a durable peace plan with Iran is seemingly underway, investors have regarded the negotiations with caution, pricing in potential setbacks.
Fidelity Debuts Its First ETF Share Classes
It’s been a long time coming for the asset management world, but ETF share classes are now a reality. Fidelity Investments has joined that movement, with the launch of its first ETF share classes for some of its mutual funds.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Growth Slips to 3-Month Low Despite Expansion
U.S. manufacturing expanded for an eleventh straight month in June but the growth eased to its lowest level in three months. The S&P Global PMI fell 1.2 points to 53.9 last month, falling short of the 55.7 forecast.
AI Washing and the Advisor Shortage: Why Getting Technology Decisions Right Has Never Mattered More
The firms that operate rigorous vendor evaluation will compound two advantages simultaneously: They buy the right tools now, and their advisors trust them when the next generation of AI arrives. In a decade that will be defined by the industry's capacity to do more with fewer people, that trust is a strategic asset.
Straitening Out
While the Middle East is still far from calm, it does appear the worst of the volatility in the region is in the past. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is in place, with negotiations underway for a more durable peace.
83(b) Election for Startup Equity: What Founders Need to Know
Startup equity decisions often happen before a founder has a full advisory team in place. Formation documents get signed, vesting schedules are approved, and the tax consequences may not feel urgent because the company is still young.
The Overlooked Opportunity Inside Workplace Retirement Plans
For decades, financial advisors have built strong relationships by helping clients manage IRAs, taxable accounts, and rollover assets after they leave an employer. Meanwhile, a significant, often the largest pool, of client wealth has quietly remained out of reach: assets inside workplace retirement plans.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: June 2026
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Estate Plans Designed Before OBBBA May Now Be Costing Your Clients Money
The OBBBA created something the industry rarely gets: a defined planning window without a hard deadline attached. Exemptions are historically high, the law has no sunset, and there's a real body of existing work that needs revisiting. The advisors who treat this as an opportunity, rather than waiting for a client to ask, will drive much stronger outcomes compared to those who don’t.
How 2026’s Philanthropic ETFs ASD & DUTY Invest
The ETF ecosystem is always changing and growing. Thanks to the ETF’s flexibility, transparency, and tradability, it can help investors achieve plenty of bespoke goals. That even includes investing with an eye towards philanthropic causes as with philanthropic ETFs ASD and DUTY.
Four Lessons Brexit Taught Me About Gold and Protecting Your Wealth
Ten years ago this week, the world watched the United Kingdom vote to walk away from the European Union. While the political class was clutching its pearls and every talking head on television was promising Armageddon by Christmas, I told you something different.
Alan Greenspan, RIP
Alan Greenspan passed away last week at the ripe old age of 100. Other than presidents, few Americans have wielded as much power in the arena of economic policy as Greenspan did during his roughly eighteen years and five months at the helm of the Federal Reserve.
Rotation Nation. Large-Cap Growth on Sale.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Commodities Midyear Outlook 2026: Is There Still Room to Run?
Despite strong gains in 2026 so far, commodities have remained supported by constrained supply, resilient demand and long investment lead times, pointing to a cycle that seems to remain fundamentally intact.
What Makes an Advisory Firm Easy to Refer? (And Why Many Fail This Test)
Whether you’re a seasoned RIA owner looking to accelerate organic growth or a next-gen Advisor building your practice from the ground up, the same fundamentals apply: say clearly who you help, show up consistently where prospects look, and make sure your online presence tells the right story.
The Credit Market Lens: What BDC Redemptions and NAV Pressures Mean for Investors
A widening confidence gap in non-traded investment vehicles is testing private credit valuations, sharpening the case for manager selection and diversification beyond direct lending.
Fixing Social Security Is Urgent — and Difficult
Social Security is now just six years away from insolvency, according to the latest annual assessment. Many in Congress might like to keep on ignoring the problem, as they have for years, but this won’t be an option much longer. Senators elected in November will see the system’s trust fund empty during their terms.
The Strait is Open. What's Next for Markets?
The dominant theme this week was a tug of war between improving macroeconomic conditions and weakness in parts of the technology sector.
REIT ETFs: Real Estate’s Quiet Revival
Markets have been hyper-focused on AI, crypto and buffer ETFs, but REIT ETFs have quietly staged an impressive comeback. The REIT terrain has shifted rapidly over recent years, and forward-looking investors and advisors have taken notice.
Mid-Year Themes
Circumstances since 2020 have repeatedly demonstrated how adaptable the economy is in the face of new challenges. We see no reason for that resilience to fade in the balance of the year.
Inflation Sinks Deeper
I’m hopeful new chair Kevin Warsh will help change the Fed’s inflation-tolerating institutional culture. Early signs look positive. Today we’ll talk about how insidious inflation is and why those who think a little inflation is fine should have their heads examined. It is not fine… for anyone.
Is AI Inflationary or Deflationary?
The AI boom goes from strength to strength. Big technology companies are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into chips, data centers and power-hungry infrastructure. One estimate puts annual AI infrastructure investment above $650 billion in 2025 and potentially over $800 billion in 2026..
Model Portfolios Are Mainstream. Now Advisors Want Personalization.
Model portfolios have helped many advisors solve for scale. The next challenge is more nuanced: how do advisors keep that scale while delivering more personalization, tax awareness and differentiated value to clients?
Open vs. Closed AI: What Advisory Firm Leaders Need to Know
Before your firm starts using AI across operations, client service, reporting, or advisor workflows, there’s one basic question leadership needs to answer: what kind of AI are we talking about?
Market Broadening, AI, and the Case for Diversification
As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
Could the U.S. Be the Frog in the Pot?
What if the debt crisis investors have feared is not still ahead, but already here, unfolding in plain sight? In his June insight, Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro & Customized Investing, makes the case that the market may already be penalizing U.S. fiscal excess, not through a dramatic collapse, but through a slow burn with real consequences for investors and the broader economy.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.70% in May and was up 3.62% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.25% month-over-month and down 0.43% year-over-year.
AI Backlash Is the Risk Wall Street Fears Can Stop Tech Stocks
Market professionals already on edge about the staying power of soaring artificial intelligence stocks are starting to grapple with another risk: public anger toward the technology.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.2% in May
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up up 0.68% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.23%.
Summer Seasonal Technicals in Municipal Bonds: A Reliable Tailwind?
Municipal bonds often see a seasonal lift during the summer months. This pattern, known as summer technicals, stems from a straightforward supply and demand imbalance that tends to favor bond prices. Over the past ten years, the summer months (May through July) have generally been positive months for the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, with monthly returns averaging +0.83%, +0.43%, and +0.82%, respectively.
The Rise of Total Portfolio Investing
Total-portfolio thinking is gaining momentum across institutional investing, with investors looking to adopt portfolio-wide approaches that integrate risk, liquidity, and capital allocation decisions. As institutions manage broader opportunity sets and place greater emphasis on portfolio integration, total-portfolio thinking is increasingly influencing how they set objectives, allocate capital, implement strategies, and govern portfolios.
Managing Family Reputation Capital in a Digital-First World
In a digital-first environment, reputation is no longer a byproduct of success; it is an asset class in its own right. For ultra-high-net-worth families, reputation capital can influence investment opportunities, business partnerships, philanthropic impact, and multigenerational legacy. It can also be exposed, amplified, or undermined in real time.
3 AI Governance Failures in Financial Advisory: What the File Needs to Show
Advisors have largely made up their minds about AI. What they have not settled is governance. AI adoption ran ahead of policy, the way it usually does, and the gap between the two is where the trouble starts.
Disinflation Trend Keeps Rate Hikes Unlikely
The most important development this week was not the Federal Reserve meeting itself, but the sharp and unexpected decline in oil prices. Just days ago, many market participants expected crude to remain elevated amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Instead, WTI crude briefly traded with a 73 handle, only modestly above its pre-conflict levels and far below the $90-$100 range that many feared.
North America’s Trade Test
The ongoing World Cup showcases three countries working together. The USMCA review will reveal whether that cooperation extends beyond sport. A shared platform can continue to deliver strong outcomes, but only if the rules remain clear, stable and broadly accepted.
U.S. Debt, Interest Rates, and the Opportunity in High-Quality Bonds
The rising debt burden of the U.S. government is becoming an increasingly serious economic concern. While it may not be an immediate crisis, it has the characteristics of a slow-moving domestic pandemic.
Beyond AI: Where Investors Can Still Find Dividend Growth in 2026
The corporate world is awash in capex. Leaders in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into tech projects, and uncertainty surrounds their profitability. For now, the market rewards this use of cash, but it’s not without pitfalls. Share buybacks, for instance, are seen as a net loser, while the S&P 500® dividend yield has sunk toward all-time lows near 1%.
The Bond Market’s Skepticism of Burnham Is a Warning
All of this is a warning to other developed markets with debt levels on the verge of exceeding their gross domestic product. Following the Truss chaos of four years ago, the market has decided to approach the UK through a lens of always assuming the worst, a default that continues to cost British taxpayers in the form of higher interest rates.
Unlocking Active Alpha in Fixed Income with Fidelity
The fixed income environment continues to project uncertainty, as higher-for-longer interest rates persist amid sticky inflation. Investors may want to lean on the expertise of active managers when deciding between an active and indexed fund.
How a US-Iran Deal Could Influence the Economy and Financial Markets
The US-Iran conflict – and its impact on oil prices – has dominated headlines over the past three months. Higher oil prices have pushed inflation to a three‑year high, reshaping the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.
A Quarter Century of Data Says the Airline Opportunity Could Just Be Getting Started
On Monday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran have reached a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally flows.
When Should a Founder Hire a Wealth Advisor? A Guide for Entrepreneurs
The most consequential decisions a founder will face, equity gifting before valuations increase, trust structures timed ahead of a sale, QSBS qualification built while eligibility still exists, all must be decided before liquidity. Once the transaction closes, much of what was available earlier is simply gone.
New Leadership, New Direction
The results of Kevin Warsh’s first official set of meetings on monetary policy as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve were like a breath of fresh air.
Meet the New Boss. Different from the Old Boss.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Truce In The Middle East
The announcement of an extended ceasefire in the Middle East is welcome news. The accord, which is scheduled to be signed late this week, reduces a source of geopolitical uncertainty that has hovered over the global economy. But significant risks remain.
Are Backyard Data Centers an Answer to AI's Biggest Problem?
Data center developers are struggling to connect to the power grid and, not unrelatedly, connect with people. Perhaps half the data center projects due to start operating this year won’t arrive on time, according to Currence, an artificial intelligence analytics firm.
The Consumer Sentiment Disconnect From Economic Reality
Start with the disconnect itself. If you only looked at the Michigan headline, you’d assume the country was in a depression. However, when you look at what people are actually doing, the picture changes completely.
AI Downsides Dominate Discourse
At graduation ceremonies, audiences are often reminded to limit their audible reactions and hold applause, so that all graduates’ names can be heard. But a few viral videos this year showed a new disturbance to be managed: graduating students booing speakers if they extolled the virtues of artificial intelligence (AI).
Three Ways to Offset Income From a Roth Conversion
Roth conversions provide tax-free retirement income to hedge against future tax hikes, but they trigger an immediate tax bill. Fortunately, strategic planning can help minimize this upfront cost.
Social Insecurity, Surprise Edition
We all know that Congress is never going to allow Social Security not to be paid. This begs a number of questions. Will the shortfall be addressed by tax increases, benefit reductions, increasing the retirement age, changing the inflation measures, means testing or some combination of these and other solutions?
The Warsh Fed—Return to Orthodoxy
Kevin Warsh came out as a hawk during his first press conference as Federal Reserve (Fed) chair. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai believes that he may be the most hawkish chair since Paul Volcker. Warsh stressed that the Fed can and will bring inflation back to 2%, and signaled his preference for a smaller balance sheet and no forward guidance—a welcome return to more orthodox monetary policy.
U.S.-Australia Agreement Underscores Importance of Rare Earths
Exposure to critical minerals, specifically rare earths, provides an opportunity for investors to capitalize on growth and diversify their portfolios simultaneously. However, there are also geopolitical implications that investors should know about as well. In particular, more nations are reducing their reliance on China.
EM Debt—What Reserve Managers Should Keep in Mind
Reserve managers' decisions on EM debt go beyond investment potential—they must also weigh considerations such as governance, resources and liquidity.
Low Chinese Demand for Foreign Oil Keeping Prices Low
One of the key questions for investment professionals is whether oil prices will return to pre-war levels once the Middle East crisis is resolved. At the same time, many are asking why oil prices are not higher, especially since the latest geopolitical deal recently pushed crude to its lowest level since the initial attack.
Vanderbilt University to Sell Up to $430 Million of Muni Bonds
Vanderbilt sold about $320 million of tax-exempt bonds through a Tennessee authority in 2024. Some of those securities that are due in 2035 traded Tuesday for a yield of about 3.06%, only slightly above the 2.83% benchmark for top-rated munis, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
SpaceX Stole the Show, but These Market-Moving Events Could Drive Stocks Next
It’s a busy finish to the first half on the corporate event calendar. The bulls have the lead, but the bears have had their moments of glory so far this year. A handful of key AGMs, conferences, and earnings events will keep investors on their toes amid a colorful macro backdrop.
Private Markets in Retirement Plans: Unlocking Opportunities
In August 2025, the US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening the investments available in defined contribution plans (DC plans). On March 30, 2026, the US Department of Labor issued proposed guidance regarding a plan fiduciary’s selection of investments, including private market and other alternative investments, in 401(k) plans.
Zillow Home Value Index: First Decline in Nine Months
Home values fell for the first time in nine months in May, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. Additionally, after adjusting for inflation, real home values dropped even more sharply, remaining at their lowest level in over five years.
Compliance Without an AI Blind Spot
Compliance risks happen when AI-enabled workflows expand faster than their governance model. It becomes a blind spot when AI solutions are built faster than the organization’s ability to map them against the right regulatory, operational, and data-governance controls.
Pending Home Sales Jump to 6-Month High
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index jumped 3.8% in May to 76.8, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain and highest level in six months.
JPMorgan’s David Kelly Says AI Boom Will Refuel Stock Rally
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s asset-management arm is urging investors to stick with stocks and other higher-risk assets in the second half of 2026, arguing that an AI investment boom and resilient consumers should keep the expansion intact despite persistent inflation and a Federal Reserve on hold.
JPMorgan Converts $950M to Active NY, CA Muni ETFs
This week J.P. Morgan Asset Management launched two actively managed municipal bond ETFs focused on California and New York debt, offering investors a way to earn tax-free income inside a more flexible and transparent fund structure.
Alternative Allocations: The Convergence of Public and Private Equity
On June 12, SpaceX went public with a US$2 trillion valuation—the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever, by far. It has been the most anticipated IPO in more than two decades and likely ushers in a series of high-profile IPOs in the coming months, including for OpenAI and Anthropic.
JPMorgan Converts $950M to Active NY, CA Muni ETFs
J.P. Morgan converted two mutual funds into active muni ETFs for California and New York investors seeking tax-free income.
Navigating the Impending Advisor Retirement Wave
A massive advisor retirement wave is reshaping wealth management. Discover how $2.5 trillion in assets may fuel industry transformation.
How to Inject Your Personal Story Into Client Service, Marketing
Advisors, who have recently broken away to start their own shops, must learn to strike the right balance when getting personal with clients — and part of that requires data.
When Clients Ask About Their Tax Bill, the Answer Might Be Philanthropy
Philanthropy conversations can open the door to multigenerational planning, as clients can bring in their children to contribute to discussions of shared values and charitable goals. For advisors, that creates an opportunity to become not just a financial resource, but a trusted partner who helps clients connect wealth with purpose.
Tariff Endgame Taking Shape
Tariff rates will vary, but their persistence is certain.
A Midyear Retirement Readiness Check
For many investors, retirement planning becomes most tangible at the start and end of the year. Goals are set in January, then revisited during year-end tax and financial planning discussions. But the middle of the year offers an equally valuable opportunity: a chance to evaluate progress, reassess assumptions, and make adjustments before small issues become larger challenges.
Goldman Brings Google to Prepaid Energy Market After Equity Deal
On the heels of arranging a record $85 billion equity-raise for Alphabet Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has scored a lesser-known victory for the tech giant in the municipal bond market.
Insurers Endure Self-Harm to Side With Big Oil
The US insurance industry recently joined the fossil-fuel industry in its fight to avoid being sued over the damage oil, gas and coal emissions have done to the planet. Given that insurers are supposedly among the world’s biggest sufferers of those same climate-fueled losses, this was a perplexing choice — until you think about why Big Insurance and Big Oil might be on the same team.
Raise Social Security Taxes — and Cut Benefits, Too
There are two processes that we cannot escape: aging and math. This applies not only to human beings but also to large government social-insurance programs.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Affordability Challenges Continue
Builder confidence edged lower in June as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from May to 35 this month, marking the 26th consecutive negative reading.
Buyable Pullbacks. Be Prepared.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Schwab Market Perspective: Mid-Year Outlook
During this time of year, we like to take stock of what happened in the first half of the year and compare it with the expectations we had at the beginning of the year when we published our full-year outlooks.
Split Decisions: What Stock Splits Reveal About Corporations in H1 2026
Dispersion continues to be the definitive story of 2026. As we progress through June and approach the conclusion of the first half of the year, the equity landscape remains distinctly bifurcated. Pockets of deep structural growth stand in contrast to areas grappling with macro headwinds.
Allocation Views: Optimistic on equities, mindful of inflation
In this month’s Allocation Views, strong corporate fundamentals and resilient growth fuel our continued optimism toward equities into June, despite persistent inflation and more restrictive monetary policy.
AI’s Expansion Runs on Smaller Companies
In addition to a greater range of chips supporting AI development, several factors could cause the current cycle to last longer than expected.
Concentrated Equity Risk: Is it time to Break your Concentration?
While owning a significant amount of a successful stock can be incredibly lucrative – especially in a company on the rise – the more you own of a single equity, the more closely your personal financial fate is tied to its performance.
The Hidden Cost of Financial Fragmentation: Why Investment Decisions Cannot Happen in Isolation
For many investors, wealth management still feels segmented. Investments are handled in one meeting, taxes in another, estate planning somewhere else, and major life decisions often happen independently of all three.
Building Enterprise Value: The Role of Custom Model Portfolios
For many registered investment advisors (RIAs), success has traditionally been measured in assets under management (AUM). As the industry evolves and consolidation accelerates, a broader question is emerging: are you building a practice or an enterprise?
Rupture and Resilience
For more than four decades, PIMCO’s Secular Forum has provided a disciplined framework for stepping back from short-term market noise to assess the structural forces that will shape the global economy and markets over the next five years. Yet rarely has this exercise been more consequential than it has recently.
Health Care—Positioning for a Potential Recovery
After more than three years of underperformance, our prognosis for global health care stocks remains positive. The sector now offers a broader set of high-quality companies at valuations that appear increasingly disconnected from fair value.
From Stock Repurchases to AI Capex: The New Playbook for Corporate Cash
Equity issuance is all the rage. The SpaceX (SPCX) IPO on Friday, Alphabet’s (GOOGL) up-sized secondary announced last week, and a slew of other major go-public names over the remainder of 2026 (Anthropic, OpenAI) buck the years-long trend of intense buybacks and shareholder-friendly activities by the world’s most valuable companies.
Vanguard’s Malloy Says Muni Yields Bolster Second-Half Outlook
Attractive yields and strong credit fundamentals are setting the municipal bond market up for a solid second half of the year, said Paul Malloy, the head of municipals at The Vanguard Group Inc.