Each week I read hundreds of “desiderata” about finance and economics and the world, perhaps interesting in their own right, but when taken together offer a far more complete picture than focusing on one point. Today, we’re going to look at a lot of various data points and analysis, that when taken together give us a much clearer picture of the total world.
Emerging markets have significantly evolved in recent years and offer a more compelling risk/reward setup than in the past. From deeper local markets to world-leading companies, Emerging markets presents a stronger opportunity than geopolitical volatility suggests.
Municipal bond asset managers are finding opportunities in the rout that tore through markets this month, with cheaper valuations and the highest yields in years drawing investors.
In September, Vanguard ETFs overall recorded a mix of steady market performance, some volatility, and significant dividend distributions, with investors pouring substantial capital into its funds.
Midterm elections are increasingly taking over the headlines, and that includes coverage of markets. While inflation, rates, and geopolitics probably have more outright impact on portfolios, investors and market watchers still look to midterm elections as a major event.
Franklin Equity’s Grant Bowers discusses why a higher cost of capital does not change the capital expenditure outlook.
Markets await a possible Fed rate hike as Congress weighs Trump's dividend proposal, a limited fall session, and a Senate vote on crypto regulation.
The takeaway from Q3 isn't that the IPO recovery is dead, it's that it has entered a far more tactical phase. The appetite to register is undeniably present, but the window to price comfortably has narrowed. For big names like OpenAI and Oura, taking extra time to clear safety, governance, or market noise is a luxury of strength, not desperation.
You can’t spot it on the field or in the stadium. You can’t correct it in training. Or cure it with a dose from the team doctor. But it’s a malady an overwhelming number of professional athletes will face.
Munis can fund local power, grid, water and wastewater infrastructure; most AI campus capital will be financed in non-municipal markets.
Explore how muni bond ETFs and targeted state funds can provide tax-efficient yields and strategic flexibility heading into 2027.
All eyes are on the macro economy. A significant market correction in late July triggered the abrupt collapse of Situational Awareness, L.P., a $45 billion, highly leveraged, AI-focused hedge fund. The collapse forced selling of many technology hardware stocks that were winners in the first half of 2026.
Economic data from last week continued to paint a picture of a robust U.S. economy with an accelerating pace of growth. After a strong durable goods report showed business fixed investment continuing to rise on the back of ongoing AI data center buildouts, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for third-quarter real economic growth remained at an elevated 5 percent.
Some employer retirement plans allow after-tax contributions that can be converted to Roth assets. Learn how a mega backdoor Roth strategy works and key considerations for retirement planning.
Globalization is being reorganized around security and resilience, creating uneven risks and opportunities across markets.
Across the world, nations are dealing with rising costs from energy and debt service. These costs are compounding as time goes on.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.23% in August and was up 4.25% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.08% month-over-month and up 0.80% year-over-year.
Valid until the market close on October 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Has the stock market bubble quietly burst already? Even though the S&P 500 Index has mostly treaded water for the past four months, Wall Street analysts have continued to boost their earnings estimates.
Bond markets continue to adjust to a more hawkish policy environment following the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike.
There is more than one reason the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23% today. Most importantly, the Fed has stopped anchoring interest rates at artificially low levels. Fear of inflation is likely another. However, both of those are related to the massive government debt the US has created.
I’m writing this week from London, the start of a four-country tour of Europe to see clients. I typically don’t have a lot of free time while on these journeys, but I did sneak away on the weekend for an economics field trip.
A recent VettaFi webcast explored advice on navigating retirees' behavioral tendencies in decumulating assets in retirement.
In his latest insight, Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro & Customized Investing, examines why the Fed’s actions tend to lag the economic cycle, how deglobalization may limit its flexibility, and what a potentially longer period of tighter monetary policy could mean for investors.
When during the calendar year should retirees take their required minimum distributions (RMDs)? Take the RMDs early and eliminate the chore? Wait until December to maximize tax-deferred compounding? Or spread the distributions throughout the year? Advisors often start with too narrow a view of what clients are trying to optimize.
Only 30% of Americans believe they’ll be able to retire comfortably — an amount retirement plan participants now estimate is $1.2 million, a recent survey by Schroders found. 33% of plan participants said that their credit card debt was higher than their retirement savings.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The financial markets are navigating a storm. The Treasury yield sell-off intensified this week, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to an intraday high of 5.20%, its highest level since 2007.
Before evaluating whether a long-short strategy belongs in a portfolio, we think it helps to understand what's actually happening under the hood. Let's start at the beginning.
A snowball effect of asset values can similarly empower wealth effects: the tendency for consumers to spend more as the value of their investments rises. Wealth effects are surprising at first glance: household investments may be illiquid and tend not to produce substantial cash flow. However, a rising net worth builds a consumer’s confidence in their ability to afford purchases.
Northern Trust Asset Management will move six mutual funds with $33 billion in assets into ETFs in early 2027, its first such conversions.
The U.S. economy remains resilient despite headwinds including sticky inflation, trade instability and rising geopolitical tensions. State and local government tax revenues have followed suit and have posted solid growth, aided by robust equity market returns.
The S&P 500 has remained remarkably resilient in the face of mounting macro headwinds. Despite oil prices topping $100 per barrel, 10-year Treasury yields climbing above 5%, and a renewed shift toward tighter monetary policy, the index continues to hover near record levels.
The yield on the 30-year hit a multi-decade high this week, spiking amid continued fiscal and monetary concerns. The 30-year hitting 5.45%, its highest mark since 2004, comes amid an already busy year for bonds.
In September 2024 and June 2025, I wrote memos that were critical of governments’ attempts to override the laws of economics, based on my conviction that trying to do so is likely to prove ineffective and potentially harmful.
Creating significant wealth requires concentration of capital, attention, risk, and decision-making.
The tectonic plates of the global economy have shifted. Across the world, yields on long government bonds — keystone of the entire financial system — have climbed to their highest in decades. A trend that had been clear ever since the brief post-pandemic boom turned into resurgent inflation and higher rates has suddenly accelerated.
The exchange-traded fund (ETF) market is pacing toward a record-breaking year in 2026, driven by an unprecedented wave of new product launches and historic capital inflows.
Since ChatGPT was first released in 2022, the artificial intelligence (AI) trade has dominated US equity markets. Gains have been driven by three interrelated forces: enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, growing concentration in the largest technology companies and strong price momentum.
This year has presented no shortage of challenges for investors. Geopolitical conflict, trade tensions, rising energy prices, shifting interest rate expectations and an increasingly active political backdrop have each taken turns dominating the headlines. Yet despite these obstacles, the economy has continued to expand, corporate profits have marched higher and markets have climbed one wall of worry after another.
Trump Accounts are now available nationwide. Explore how the new tax-advantaged accounts work, who can contribute and key considerations for families evaluating their long-term savings options.
The Federal Reserve hiked rates, and we expect there are more to come. With a hawkish Fed and a resilient economy, long-term yields may stay elevated.
We know from recent history why this question feels so timely. Fixed income remains a foundational portfolio building block, offering low-correlated or uncorrelated diversification and downside risk mitigation. However, holding long-dated bonds in recent years has been notoriously painful.
It’s really starting to feel like autumn now. August PPI, CPI, and Retail Sales are in the books, the September FOMC meeting is out of the way, and we can now look forward to Jobs Week on Wall Street. Football is in full swing, and earnings season begins before you know it, with Pepsi (PEP) posting results on Thursday, October 8, followed the next morning by Delta (DAL).
Global growth remains resilient but uneven. In the United States, expansion is supported by private demand, a stable labor market and AI investment, while Europe and Japan continue to show surprising strength despite ongoing risks.
Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are developing faster than investors anticipated just a few years ago, fueling a popular narrative that AI will trigger widespread job cuts. Yet there’s little evidence to back this view. Instead, we find that AI is changing hiring patterns, altering skill requirements and shifting the mix of work performed within firms.
While the AI trade absorbs nearly all available investor attention, owning energy covers our absolute risk while creating the risk budget to cover the AI relative risk more effectively.
For many advisory firms, portfolio management creates a practical tension. Standardized models can simplify implementation and support scale, yet they may not reflect a firm's investment philosophy, tax realities, legacy holdings or preferred managers. Building every portfolio internally preserves control, but it also demands time, systems and ongoing investment oversight.
The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is more than a regional milestone — it is a shift in competition among U.S. capital markets. After months of anticipation, the TXSE reached a major landmark last week as Texas Capital’s TXS and OILT ETFs became its first primary listings, followed a day later by PWRX as the first new ETF to launch on the exchange.
The US deficit has reached $1.97 trillion and is on track to pass 6% of gross domestic product this fiscal year, the latest milestone in a remarkable deterioration of the federal budget.
The two largest municipal bond exchange-traded funds just recorded their largest weekly inflows ever, shortly after a bond rout fueled outflows in other muni funds.
In late January, the week before Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced a $1.6 billion government commitment to fund a US magnet maker, bankers at his former financial services company, now run by his sons, were busy earning fees raising $1.5 billion more for the company from private investors.
Creating an estate plan is an important step, but it is only one piece of your financial life. If your estate documents, investment strategy, retirement plan, tax strategy, and beneficiary designations are not working together, even a well-crafted estate plan may not achieve the outcome you intended. Coordinating these elements may help support your wealth is transferred efficiently, your wishes are honored, and unnecessary complications are reduced.
Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Kevin Warsh has established his hawkish credentials. Franklin Templeton CIO, Sonal Desai sees scope for further yield curve steepening and a range of selective opportunities, based on capturing income and focusing on quality rather than counting on lower rates or tighter spreads.
It wasn’t that long ago that Kevin Warsh’s leading critics were saying his biggest problem was that he wasn’t “independent” from President Trump, that if Trump told him to “jump” he’d ask “how high?” Or, in this particular situation, “how low should interest rates go?”
Every runner has a natural pace: the speed that we maintain under optimal conditions like flat terrain, cool temperatures and a good night of sleep. Runners can train to speed up to meet a target time, or slow down for endurance.
Cryptocurrency can complicate divorce even when no one is hiding it. Early identification and collaboration can prevent a misunderstood transaction or unilateral decision from becoming a costly dispute. This preparation also gives both spouses a reliable basis for evaluating settlement terms and trade-offs.
Advisors equipped with outcome-based allocation frameworks and cash-flow-focused strategies like dividend-growth investing can help business owners translate a singular liquidity event into a wealth plan aligned with their lifestyle, generational, and aspirational goals.
This has been an incredible year in that Wall Street has spent all of it raising its earnings estimates, and the second-quarter season only accelerated the trend. Analysts began the year expecting S&P 500 earnings to grow about 15%.
Early this week, I was in Los Angeles at the All-In Summit along with about 4,000 others, including tech investors, money managers and entrepreneurs. The ticket wasn’t cheap, but it was well worth it.
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
As summer officially gives way to fall on September 22, it's not just the weather that's changing. The global monetary policy landscape is shifting as well. After spending much of the past two years focused on supporting growth, central banks have increasingly turned their attention back to inflation, especially with oil prices climbing back above $100 per barrel.
I typically avoid business books when I am on vacation. But I made an exception during our sojourn last month for Andrew Ross Sorkin’s 1929. Nearly a century after the Great Crash, that era is still being studied for lessons that might be relevant in the current day. The potential for financial instability is ever-present.
Confused by the Singularity and the impending AI apocalypse? Theoretical physicist turned science writer Adam Becker is here to help with “More Everything Forever: AI Overlords, Space Empires, and Silicon Valley’s Crusade to Control the Fate of Humanity,” a jaundiced tour d’horizon of the peculiar end-times stories that IT visionaries — particularly the richest and most powerful ones — tell themselves.
Throughout this Indexing Redefined series, we explored how traditional market-capitalization indexing ties portfolio weights directly to stock prices, creating hidden concentration risks. Furthermore, we discussed how fundamental indexing offers a disciplined alternative by weighting companies according to their real-world economic footprint. In this final installment, we address the dilemma investors face in highly concentrated equity markets.
This month, our experts discuss how Federal Reserve tightening has historically affected the markets; whether European stocks might be worth a second look; and the news from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. We provide the supporting documentation for all claims summarized below in the linked articles.
Pacing isn't pausing. Calls to "pace the frontier" mean slowing the release of powerful artificial intelligence (AI) models to test and control them better, not halting development or spending.
Advisors outsourcing at least 20% of assets reported saving 9.1 hours per week, or approximately 473 hours annually. WisdomTree research found 90% of investors welcomed third-party model portfolios, suggesting clients may be more comfortable with outside expertise than advisors expect.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) made something clear this week that markets had been reluctant to accept. Apparently, the easing cycle isn't paused, it's over for now.
A spinout from the family office for the billionaire owners of US construction giant Michels Corp. is expanding its public equities strategy with a fund focused on US infrastructure.
For decades, equity investors have relied on a foundational promise from Corporate America: the continuous return of surplus cash. Dividends and share repurchases represent the two primary ways by which companies deliver tangible value back to shareholders. Yet as we navigate the final stretch of the third quarter of 2026, both channels are signaling a distinct shift toward restraint.
The new investment case for global power, security and affordability. The phrase “energy transition” has served as a useful political and cultural shorthand, but it has become a misleading framework for capital allocation. Franklin Templeton Institute explodes new opportunities for investors—and where shifts in thinking may be needed.
A rising S&P 500® might suggest few opportunities for tax-loss harvesting. But unusually wide dispersion among individual stocks is telling a different story—and potentially creating new opportunities for direct indexing.
Municipal bonds might still offer attractive tax-advantaged income and relatively stable credit quality for investors who understand the risks.
The recent global bond sell-off may be more than a temporary repricing. Rising government debt, persistent inflation risks and shifting economic expectations could keep longer-term yields elevated relative to the post-financial-crisis era.
The 2026 U.S. midterms are rapidly approaching, with major implications. Muni bonds, in particular, may be impacted.
Advancements in technology, combined with significant stock market gains in recent years, have created a new set of opportunities—and challenges—for investors. For example, investors holding a concentrated position in a highly appreciated stock may face a difficult trade-off between the risk of a market downturn and the potentially significant tax cost of diversifying the position.
When it comes to personal finance, conventional wisdom says the best way to live is debt-free. There are many important reasons why this is tried and true, but for high-net-worth individuals, lending can be an optimal way to access cash in the near term without sacrificing long-term gains on your assets.
Fed policymakers unanimously voted to raise rates 25 basis points, the first hike since 2023, and vowed to fight inflation. Another hike is seen this year, but 2027 is in question.
Clients value advisors who are knowledgeable about philanthropy as well as those who collaborate with philanthropic specialists when deeper expertise is needed. Advisors who coordinate deliberately with specialists, rather than working around them, are best positioned to meet those expectations.
US retail sales rose by the most in five months in a broad advance, showing consumers continued to spend despite rising gasoline prices.
From the 2020 pandemic to today’s oil shocks, we’re often reminded in recent years that inflation can flare up unexpectedly. We’ve also likely entered an era in which higher inflation may linger for some time. As a result, bond-heavy and income-oriented investors may need to shore up their inflation defense, which we think should combine strategic positioning with tactical maneuvering.
AI-driven healthcare innovation is creating strong investment opportunities by improving efficiency, expanding access, and delivering better patient outcomes.
In what is a good sign, many discussions around automation generally and AI specifically are increasingly moving to questions about compliance and liability. Basically, people are asking whether the agentic coworker they just hired is smart enough to trust.
Periods like this can feel especially tense, with higher stakes and more urgent headlines. Yet over time, markets have shown they are forward-looking and resilient, absorbing uncertainty rather than freezing in it. While today’s geopolitical backdrop may feel unsettling, it fits a long history of disruptions that markets have ultimately navigated.
Most coverage of Trump Accounts treats them as a parenting question, or a discussion comparing them to 529s. For founders and business owners the analysis of them is slightly more nuanced.
Demand for fixed income ETFs hit a historic high-water mark in September. Investors and advisors turned to fixed income ETFs at a record-breaking pace, driving 2026 net inflows of $446 billion past all-time levels with months to spare. The massive tide of capital arrives at a critical juncture.
Last week, the refining margin on European gasoil, the benchmark that sets the price of diesel and heating oil across much of the world, closed at roughly $94 a barrel over Brent crude, according to Bloomberg data. That figure is normally somewhere between $12 and $18.
As I go through the strengths and weaknesses of each model, my goals are to point out where the models are strong and to point out potential weaknesses such as conflicts of interest, which are important to be aware of in working with clients. Although we are all fiduciaries, financial incentives matter because we are all human. I know great advisors across all fee models.
Tax Loss Harvesting
Economic Desiderata
Each week I read hundreds of “desiderata” about finance and economics and the world, perhaps interesting in their own right, but when taken together offer a far more complete picture than focusing on one point. Today, we’re going to look at a lot of various data points and analysis, that when taken together give us a much clearer picture of the total world.
Why Waiting for Certainty Could Be Costly
Emerging markets have significantly evolved in recent years and offer a more compelling risk/reward setup than in the past. From deeper local markets to world-leading companies, Emerging markets presents a stronger opportunity than geopolitical volatility suggests.
Muni Managers Tout Equity-Like Returns After Historic Selloff
Municipal bond asset managers are finding opportunities in the rout that tore through markets this month, with cheaper valuations and the highest yields in years drawing investors.
Yields & Global Value: Inside Vanguard’s Top 8 ETFs for September
In September, Vanguard ETFs overall recorded a mix of steady market performance, some volatility, and significant dividend distributions, with investors pouring substantial capital into its funds.
What Midterm Elections Do – & Don’t – Mean for Bonds
Midterm elections are increasingly taking over the headlines, and that includes coverage of markets. While inflation, rates, and geopolitics probably have more outright impact on portfolios, investors and market watchers still look to midterm elections as a major event.
The Next Phase of AI is an Earnings Story
Franklin Equity’s Grant Bowers discusses why a higher cost of capital does not change the capital expenditure outlook.
Washington: What to Watch Now
Markets await a possible Fed rate hike as Congress weighs Trump's dividend proposal, a limited fall session, and a Senate vote on crypto regulation.
Do Oura and OpenAI IPO Delays Foreshadow a Slowdown in Dealmaking for Q4?
The takeaway from Q3 isn't that the IPO recovery is dead, it's that it has entered a far more tactical phase. The appetite to register is undeniably present, but the window to price comfortably has narrowed. For big names like OpenAI and Oura, taking extra time to clear safety, governance, or market noise is a luxury of strength, not desperation.
New Money, New problems: Athletes and Sudden Wealth
You can’t spot it on the field or in the stadium. You can’t correct it in training. Or cure it with a dose from the team doctor. But it’s a malady an overwhelming number of professional athletes will face.
Municipal Bonds and AI Data Center Financing
Munis can fund local power, grid, water and wastewater infrastructure; most AI campus capital will be financed in non-municipal markets.
Looking Ahead at ETFs for the 2027 Muni Bond Outlook
Explore how muni bond ETFs and targeted state funds can provide tax-efficient yields and strategic flexibility heading into 2027.
The Macro / Micro Divide
All eyes are on the macro economy. A significant market correction in late July triggered the abrupt collapse of Situational Awareness, L.P., a $45 billion, highly leveraged, AI-focused hedge fund. The collapse forced selling of many technology hardware stocks that were winners in the first half of 2026.
Strong U.S. Growth Meets Rising Rate Risks
Economic data from last week continued to paint a picture of a robust U.S. economy with an accelerating pace of growth. After a strong durable goods report showed business fixed investment continuing to rise on the back of ongoing AI data center buildouts, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for third-quarter real economic growth remained at an elevated 5 percent.
Supercharge Your Roth Savings With After-Tax Contributions
Some employer retirement plans allow after-tax contributions that can be converted to Roth assets. Learn how a mega backdoor Roth strategy works and key considerations for retirement planning.
Investing Amid Geopolitical Fragmentation
Globalization is being reorganized around security and resilience, creating uneven risks and opportunities across markets.
Compounding Costs
Across the world, nations are dealing with rising costs from energy and debt service. These costs are compounding as time goes on.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.23% in August and was up 4.25% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.08% month-over-month and up 0.80% year-over-year.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: September 2026
Valid until the market close on October 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Stocks Are Suddenly Looking Cheap? It's Just a Mirage
Has the stock market bubble quietly burst already? Even though the S&P 500 Index has mostly treaded water for the past four months, Wall Street analysts have continued to boost their earnings estimates.
What the AI Investment Boom Means for Bonds
Bond markets continue to adjust to a more hawkish policy environment following the Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike.
National Debt A Growing Threat
There is more than one reason the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.23% today. Most importantly, the Fed has stopped anchoring interest rates at artificially low levels. Fear of inflation is likely another. However, both of those are related to the massive government debt the US has created.
Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality
I’m writing this week from London, the start of a four-country tour of Europe to see clients. I typically don’t have a lot of free time while on these journeys, but I did sneak away on the weekend for an economics field trip.
How to Prepare for Decumulation in Retirement
A recent VettaFi webcast explored advice on navigating retirees' behavioral tendencies in decumulating assets in retirement.
Taking the Punchbowl Away From the Party
In his latest insight, Richard Bernstein, Global Head of Macro & Customized Investing, examines why the Fed’s actions tend to lag the economic cycle, how deglobalization may limit its flexibility, and what a potentially longer period of tighter monetary policy could mean for investors.
When Should Clients Take Their RMDs? We May Be Optimizing the Wrong Thing
When during the calendar year should retirees take their required minimum distributions (RMDs)? Take the RMDs early and eliminate the chore? Wait until December to maximize tax-deferred compounding? Or spread the distributions throughout the year? Advisors often start with too narrow a view of what clients are trying to optimize.
Retirees Need $1.2M, but Carry More Debt Than Savings
Only 30% of Americans believe they’ll be able to retire comfortably — an amount retirement plan participants now estimate is $1.2 million, a recent survey by Schroders found. 33% of plan participants said that their credit card debt was higher than their retirement savings.
House Call
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
How Rising Bond Yields are Shaping the Market Outlook
The financial markets are navigating a storm. The Treasury yield sell-off intensified this week, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to an intraday high of 5.20%, its highest level since 2007.
Long-Short Investing: A Basic Guide in Plain English
Before evaluating whether a long-short strategy belongs in a portfolio, we think it helps to understand what's actually happening under the hood. Let's start at the beginning.
Sizing Up Wealth Effects
A snowball effect of asset values can similarly empower wealth effects: the tendency for consumers to spend more as the value of their investments rises. Wealth effects are surprising at first glance: household investments may be illiquid and tend not to produce substantial cash flow. However, a rising net worth builds a consumer’s confidence in their ability to afford purchases.
Northern Trust to Convert $33 Billion in Mutual Funds to ETFs
Northern Trust Asset Management will move six mutual funds with $33 billion in assets into ETFs in early 2027, its first such conversions.
Municipal Bonds: Fiscal 2027 State Outlook
The U.S. economy remains resilient despite headwinds including sticky inflation, trade instability and rising geopolitical tensions. State and local government tax revenues have followed suit and have posted solid growth, aided by robust equity market returns.
The Message From Market Breadth
The S&P 500 has remained remarkably resilient in the face of mounting macro headwinds. Despite oil prices topping $100 per barrel, 10-year Treasury yields climbing above 5%, and a renewed shift toward tighter monetary policy, the index continues to hover near record levels.
American Century’s Gotelli: What to Know on Munis Amid Yield Highs
The yield on the 30-year hit a multi-decade high this week, spiking amid continued fiscal and monetary concerns. The 30-year hitting 5.45%, its highest mark since 2004, comes amid an already busy year for bonds.
Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics – Part III
In September 2024 and June 2025, I wrote memos that were critical of governments’ attempts to override the laws of economics, based on my conviction that trying to do so is likely to prove ineffective and potentially harmful.
What Happens After the Wealth-Creation Phase?
Creating significant wealth requires concentration of capital, attention, risk, and decision-making.
The Big One Is Rumbling in the Bond Market
The tectonic plates of the global economy have shifted. Across the world, yields on long government bonds — keystone of the entire financial system — have climbed to their highest in decades. A trend that had been clear ever since the brief post-pandemic boom turned into resurgent inflation and higher rates has suddenly accelerated.
The ETF Survival of the Fittest: Record Launches Meet Accelerating Delistings
The exchange-traded fund (ETF) market is pacing toward a record-breaking year in 2026, driven by an unprecedented wave of new product launches and historic capital inflows.
A Broader Market, a Stronger Case for Dividend Growth
Since ChatGPT was first released in 2022, the artificial intelligence (AI) trade has dominated US equity markets. Gains have been driven by three interrelated forces: enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, growing concentration in the largest technology companies and strong price momentum.
Discipline Through Uncertainty
This year has presented no shortage of challenges for investors. Geopolitical conflict, trade tensions, rising energy prices, shifting interest rate expectations and an increasingly active political backdrop have each taken turns dominating the headlines. Yet despite these obstacles, the economy has continued to expand, corporate profits have marched higher and markets have climbed one wall of worry after another.
Trump Accounts Are Here: What Families Need to Know
Trump Accounts are now available nationwide. Explore how the new tax-advantaged accounts work, who can contribute and key considerations for families evaluating their long-term savings options.
Fed Hikes: What's Next for Treasury Yields?
The Federal Reserve hiked rates, and we expect there are more to come. With a hawkish Fed and a resilient economy, long-term yields may stay elevated.
Long Bonds vs. Derivative Income: The Income Dilemma
We know from recent history why this question feels so timely. Fixed income remains a foundational portfolio building block, offering low-correlated or uncorrelated diversification and downside risk mitigation. However, holding long-dated bonds in recent years has been notoriously painful.
October Could Bring New Market Surprises as Earnings Season Nears: Here’s What to Watch
It’s really starting to feel like autumn now. August PPI, CPI, and Retail Sales are in the books, the September FOMC meeting is out of the way, and we can now look forward to Jobs Week on Wall Street. Football is in full swing, and earnings season begins before you know it, with Pepsi (PEP) posting results on Thursday, October 8, followed the next morning by Delta (DAL).
Growth Holds, Pressure Builds
Global growth remains resilient but uneven. In the United States, expansion is supported by private demand, a stable labor market and AI investment, while Europe and Japan continue to show surprising strength despite ongoing risks.
So Far, AI Is Reshaping More Than Cutting the Workforce
Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are developing faster than investors anticipated just a few years ago, fueling a popular narrative that AI will trigger widespread job cuts. Yet there’s little evidence to back this view. Instead, we find that AI is changing hiring patterns, altering skill requirements and shifting the mix of work performed within firms.
Energy Hedges the AI Trade
While the AI trade absorbs nearly all available investor attention, owning energy covers our absolute risk while creating the risk budget to cover the AI relative risk more effectively.
Custom Models, Your Way, Powered by a Shared CIO
For many advisory firms, portfolio management creates a practical tension. Standardized models can simplify implementation and support scale, yet they may not reflect a firm's investment philosophy, tax realities, legacy holdings or preferred managers. Building every portfolio internally preserves control, but it also demands time, systems and ongoing investment oversight.
ETFs on TXSE: A Big Milestone for Y’all Street
The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is more than a regional milestone — it is a shift in competition among U.S. capital markets. After months of anticipation, the TXSE reached a major landmark last week as Texas Capital’s TXS and OILT ETFs became its first primary listings, followed a day later by PWRX as the first new ETF to launch on the exchange.
There’s a Secret Third Path to Escaping America’s Debt Trap
The US deficit has reached $1.97 trillion and is on track to pass 6% of gross domestic product this fiscal year, the latest milestone in a remarkable deterioration of the federal budget.
BlackRock, Vanguard Muni ETFs See Record Inflows After Bond Rout
The two largest municipal bond exchange-traded funds just recorded their largest weekly inflows ever, shortly after a bond rout fueled outflows in other muni funds.
The Tiny Magnet Maker That Attracted $1.6 Billion From Lutnick
In late January, the week before Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced a $1.6 billion government commitment to fund a US magnet maker, bankers at his former financial services company, now run by his sons, were busy earning fees raising $1.5 billion more for the company from private investors.
A Guide to Coordinating Your Estate Plan With Your Financial Plan
Creating an estate plan is an important step, but it is only one piece of your financial life. If your estate documents, investment strategy, retirement plan, tax strategy, and beneficiary designations are not working together, even a well-crafted estate plan may not achieve the outcome you intended. Coordinating these elements may help support your wealth is transferred efficiently, your wishes are honored, and unnecessary complications are reduced.
On My Mind: One Flew Over the Dove’s Nest
Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Kevin Warsh has established his hawkish credentials. Franklin Templeton CIO, Sonal Desai sees scope for further yield curve steepening and a range of selective opportunities, based on capturing income and focusing on quality rather than counting on lower rates or tighter spreads.
Want Fed Independence? Cut Government
It wasn’t that long ago that Kevin Warsh’s leading critics were saying his biggest problem was that he wasn’t “independent” from President Trump, that if Trump told him to “jump” he’d ask “how high?” Or, in this particular situation, “how low should interest rates go?”
Neutral Rates Nosing Up
Every runner has a natural pace: the speed that we maintain under optimal conditions like flat terrain, cool temperatures and a good night of sleep. Runners can train to speed up to meet a target time, or slow down for endurance.
How Financial Advisors Add Value in Divorce Cases Involving Digital Assets
Cryptocurrency can complicate divorce even when no one is hiding it. Early identification and collaboration can prevent a misunderstood transaction or unilateral decision from becoming a costly dispute. This preparation also gives both spouses a reliable basis for evaluating settlement terms and trade-offs.
Navigating the $14-Trillion Transition: How Advisors Can Guide Business Owners Through Liquidity Events
Advisors equipped with outcome-based allocation frameworks and cash-flow-focused strategies like dividend-growth investing can help business owners translate a singular liquidity event into a wealth plan aligned with their lifestyle, generational, and aspirational goals.
Earnings Mean Reversion: When Estimates Snap Back
This has been an incredible year in that Wall Street has spent all of it raising its earnings estimates, and the second-quarter season only accelerated the trend. Analysts began the year expecting S&P 500 earnings to grow about 15%.
Why Big Tech’s AI Capex Is Now Outrunning Cash Flow
Early this week, I was in Los Angeles at the All-In Summit along with about 4,000 others, including tech investors, money managers and entrepreneurs. The ticket wasn’t cheap, but it was well worth it.
Here We Go Again—Another Hiking Cycle?
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topousis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
What the Federal Reserve’s Rate Hike Means for the Markets
As summer officially gives way to fall on September 22, it's not just the weather that's changing. The global monetary policy landscape is shifting as well. After spending much of the past two years focused on supporting growth, central banks have increasingly turned their attention back to inflation, especially with oil prices climbing back above $100 per barrel.
A Review of 1929
I typically avoid business books when I am on vacation. But I made an exception during our sojourn last month for Andrew Ross Sorkin’s 1929. Nearly a century after the Great Crash, that era is still being studied for lessons that might be relevant in the current day. The potential for financial instability is ever-present.
Future Schlock: A Guide to the Singularity
Confused by the Singularity and the impending AI apocalypse? Theoretical physicist turned science writer Adam Becker is here to help with “More Everything Forever: AI Overlords, Space Empires, and Silicon Valley’s Crusade to Control the Fate of Humanity,” a jaundiced tour d’horizon of the peculiar end-times stories that IT visionaries — particularly the richest and most powerful ones — tell themselves.
Indexing Redefined, Part IV: Active Management vs. RAFI
Throughout this Indexing Redefined series, we explored how traditional market-capitalization indexing ties portfolio weights directly to stock prices, creating hidden concentration risks. Furthermore, we discussed how fundamental indexing offers a disciplined alternative by weighting companies according to their real-world economic footprint. In this final installment, we address the dilemma investors face in highly concentrated equity markets.
Schwab Market Perspective
This month, our experts discuss how Federal Reserve tightening has historically affected the markets; whether European stocks might be worth a second look; and the news from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. We provide the supporting documentation for all claims summarized below in the linked articles.
Pacing the Frontier
Pacing isn't pausing. Calls to "pace the frontier" mean slowing the release of powerful artificial intelligence (AI) models to test and control them better, not halting development or spending.
What Would You Do With 9 Extra Hours a Week?
Advisors outsourcing at least 20% of assets reported saving 9.1 hours per week, or approximately 473 hours annually. WisdomTree research found 90% of investors welcomed third-party model portfolios, suggesting clients may be more comfortable with outside expertise than advisors expect.
A Hawkish Fed, a Two-Speed China, and the Thread That Connects Them
The Federal Reserve (Fed) made something clear this week that markets had been reluctant to accept. Apparently, the easing cycle isn't paused, it's over for now.
Billionaire US Construction Family Backs ‘Rebuild America’ ETF
A spinout from the family office for the billionaire owners of US construction giant Michels Corp. is expanding its public equities strategy with a fund focused on US infrastructure.
Capital Return Retreat: Dividends and Buybacks Slump as Macro Risks Mount in Q3
For decades, equity investors have relied on a foundational promise from Corporate America: the continuous return of surplus cash. Dividends and share repurchases represent the two primary ways by which companies deliver tangible value back to shareholders. Yet as we navigate the final stretch of the third quarter of 2026, both channels are signaling a distinct shift toward restraint.
Energy Addition Within the Transition
The new investment case for global power, security and affordability. The phrase “energy transition” has served as a useful political and cultural shorthand, but it has become a misleading framework for capital allocation. Franklin Templeton Institute explodes new opportunities for investors—and where shifts in thinking may be needed.
The Hidden Tax-Loss Opportunity in Today's Stock Market
A rising S&P 500® might suggest few opportunities for tax-loss harvesting. But unusually wide dispersion among individual stocks is telling a different story—and potentially creating new opportunities for direct indexing.
Do Munis Still Deserve a Place in Your Portfolio?
Municipal bonds might still offer attractive tax-advantaged income and relatively stable credit quality for investors who understand the risks.
Higher Yields May Be More Structural Than Cyclical
The recent global bond sell-off may be more than a temporary repricing. Rising government debt, persistent inflation risks and shifting economic expectations could keep longer-term yields elevated relative to the post-financial-crisis era.
As Midterms Loom, Here Are the Opportunities in Muni Bonds
The 2026 U.S. midterms are rapidly approaching, with major implications. Muni bonds, in particular, may be impacted.
Planning Considerations for a Direct Indexing Program
Advancements in technology, combined with significant stock market gains in recent years, have created a new set of opportunities—and challenges—for investors. For example, investors holding a concentrated position in a highly appreciated stock may face a difficult trade-off between the risk of a market downturn and the potentially significant tax cost of diversifying the position.
When Borrowing Can Be a Smart Strategy
When it comes to personal finance, conventional wisdom says the best way to live is debt-free. There are many important reasons why this is tried and true, but for high-net-worth individuals, lending can be an optimal way to access cash in the near term without sacrificing long-term gains on your assets.
Fed Hikes in 12-0 Vote, Commits to Inflation Fight
Fed policymakers unanimously voted to raise rates 25 basis points, the first hike since 2023, and vowed to fight inflation. Another hike is seen this year, but 2027 is in question.
The Philanthropic Specialist Is Less a Competitor Than a Secret Weapon
Clients value advisors who are knowledgeable about philanthropy as well as those who collaborate with philanthropic specialists when deeper expertise is needed. Advisors who coordinate deliberately with specialists, rather than working around them, are best positioned to meet those expectations.
Broad Rise in US Retail Sales Highlights Resilient Consumer
US retail sales rose by the most in five months in a broad advance, showing consumers continued to spend despite rising gasoline prices.
Should Inflation Defense Be Strategic or Tactical? Both
From the 2020 pandemic to today’s oil shocks, we’re often reminded in recent years that inflation can flare up unexpectedly. We’ve also likely entered an era in which higher inflation may linger for some time. As a result, bond-heavy and income-oriented investors may need to shore up their inflation defense, which we think should combine strategic positioning with tactical maneuvering.
Charting the Structural Growth Opportunity in Health Care Technology
AI-driven healthcare innovation is creating strong investment opportunities by improving efficiency, expanding access, and delivering better patient outcomes.
You Cannot Depose a Model
In what is a good sign, many discussions around automation generally and AI specifically are increasingly moving to questions about compliance and liability. Basically, people are asking whether the agentic coworker they just hired is smart enough to trust.
Missiles, Markets, & Momentum: Why the Market Outlasts the Headlines
Periods like this can feel especially tense, with higher stakes and more urgent headlines. Yet over time, markets have shown they are forward-looking and resilient, absorbing uncertainty rather than freezing in it. While today’s geopolitical backdrop may feel unsettling, it fits a long history of disruptions that markets have ultimately navigated.
From the US Market Desk: From Missouri
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Trump Accounts for Business Owners: Two Decisions, Not One
Most coverage of Trump Accounts treats them as a parenting question, or a discussion comparing them to 529s. For founders and business owners the analysis of them is slightly more nuanced.
Fixed Income ETFs Surge to All-Time Highs Ahead of Pivotal Fed Decision
Demand for fixed income ETFs hit a historic high-water mark in September. Investors and advisors turned to fixed income ETFs at a record-breaking pace, driving 2026 net inflows of $446 billion past all-time levels with months to spare. The massive tide of capital arrives at a critical juncture.
Cheap Drones Are Repricing Global Energy Markets
Last week, the refining margin on European gasoil, the benchmark that sets the price of diesel and heating oil across much of the world, closed at roughly $94 a barrel over Brent crude, according to Bloomberg data. That figure is normally somewhere between $12 and $18.
Strengths & Weaknesses of Advisor Fee–Only Models from the Client Perspective
As I go through the strengths and weaknesses of each model, my goals are to point out where the models are strong and to point out potential weaknesses such as conflicts of interest, which are important to be aware of in working with clients. Although we are all fiduciaries, financial incentives matter because we are all human. I know great advisors across all fee models.