Inflation

How the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund’s strategy helped it achieve outperformance during a historic period for global markets.

The headline employment figure came in stronger than expected and better than feared following the weak ADP report, but the details were far from a blockbuster.

If you’ve been following the mainstream financial media lately, you might think the airline industry is in crisis. From headlines about tariffs and labor costs to geopolitical tensions and delays at Newark Airport, it sounds like air travel should be tanking.

We upgrade equities to neutral from underweight as falling interest rates and improving economic conditions in emerging markets offset uncertainty over US tariff policies.

It was a positive quarter for emerging markets equities.

As the second half gets underway, we think a modest overweight to risk assets is called for.

This year, so far, the world has been riddled with geopolitical news, resonating in widespread unrest, yet seemingly yielding less impact on financial markets.

In the immediate aftermath of Friday’s much anticipated Employment Report it seemed like the judgement from analysts, talking heads, and even markets was unanimous (or nearly so) that there was good news to celebrate.

In last week’s letter, I referenced Torsten Sløk’s excellent midyear outlook for Apollo Global Management. Today I’ll share some longer quotes which will, I hope, help you visualize where the economy is headed.

Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.

The bull market is alive and well, even amid widespread talk of the “death of U.S. exceptionalism.

Investors looking for cash flow from commercial real estate may want to check out the debt side.

This quarter might best be described as the “Big Beautiful Bounce”. Or the BBB. History has proven time and time again that markets do come back – but this was a historically quick market turnaround.

From investing to economics to politics, patterns emerge, lessons resurface and the past becomes a powerful guide for navigating today’s unpredictable landscape. Timing, perspective and adaptability can make all the difference in managing the complexities of modern markets.

As the global economy navigates a complex landscape, investors are left wondering: are they right to be optimistic or are they being complacent? This article from Franklin Templeton Institute explores the signs of resilience as well as numerous risks.

Though some urge rate cuts, doing that won't necessarily reduce borrowing costs if the market doesn't agree with the timing. It could raise inflation fears, hurting Treasuries.

Do you feel like you spend more and more money every month but get less and less for it? That’s because you are.

Sharp U.S. policy shift and elevated uncertainty reflect an evolution of the new macro regime. What matters: getting a grip on uncertainty by identifying its core features.

The Senate has approved its own version of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax-and-spending plan. Here's how it differs from the version the House passed in May, and what's next.

Some say private credit hasn’t been tested. We disagree…and stress can sharpen the senses.

Israel-Iran hostilities brought a short-term market focus on oil. Longer term, artificial intelligence (AI) electricity needs could create a power shortage, as well as opportunities and risks for investors.

Proposed regulatory changes involving the Supplementary Leverage Ratio may have benefits for both large banks and the Treasury market.

Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.

We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.

It has been over six months since the FOMC has made a change to the Fed Funds rate. While the debate continues as to when the next cut will be, market consensus (per Bloomberg calculations) is currently for a 25 basis point cut in September.

An economy cannot subsist on services alone.

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Global Chief Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman explored key drivers behind the strong performance in markets. He also provided an update on a proposed U.S. tax measure.

The US economy is important, but it’s not the only one in a global approach.

With the first half of 2025 in the books, it’s been a very interesting six months — emphasis on “V” because the S&P 500 saw a nice V-shaped formation following the April sell-off. As markets always reveal, interesting times call for interesting ETF trends to follow.

In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.

When the Fed increased the M2 money supply by over 40% during the COVID crisis, our instinct was that the implications would extend far beyond a temporary boost to the U.S. stock market and higher inflation. That intuition is proving accurate. We’re now seeing the long-term ripple effects play out in real time across multiple asset classes and global markets.

For good reasons, many investors have a love-hate relationship with commodity investments. Operationally, the annoying K-1 form complicates tax filing, although thankfully the industry has started to launch “no K-1” funds.

This year’s formidable challenges have clarified strategic lessons for equity investors to apply in the coming months

The marathon Senate budget vote took center stage early and stocks slipped from yesterday's all-time highs. Job openings, Powell, and manufacturing data are top of mind.

India has seen foreigners leaving the market for most of 2025. For this and other reasons, India has become one of the bigger shorts in our Systematic Global Macro Strategy’s equity portfolio

Markets notched fresh all-time highs on Friday with a positive tone and geopolitical outlook. Swift retreat in oil back to pre-strike levels, combined with friendlier NATO negotiations and de-escalated fighting in Iran restored risk appetite.

Only a subset of subsidies will be rolled back.

A potential conflict with Iran has consistently appeared in our monthly Market Risk Monitor for over two years. Now that risk has materialized. Our equity portfolio managers assess the implications for global markets.

Readers of a certain age will no doubt recall President Ronald Reagan launching one of the most ambitious military buildups in American history.

Growth is expected to decelerate, but not come crashing down.

Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.

This article will help you evaluate whether it’s still a good time for clients to gain Bitcoin exposure—even after its recent all-time high—and how to do so responsibly. You’ll learn how Bitcoin fits into a diversified portfolio, what leading financial institutions forecast for its future, and why spot Bitcoin ETFs offer a regulated, practical entry point for long-term investors.

The United States’ tariff announcement on April 2, 2025, created significant market volatility, as the tariffs were perceived as higher, broader, and more punitive than expected, and the implementation sooner.

Market uncertainty needs a tailor-made approach to fixed income for advisors to construct the ideal portfolio for their clients. There’s an easier solution that encompasses an active management approach, various income sources, and low cost. It’s the Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS).

The Fed’s credibility rests not on never being wrong, but on being adaptive and forward-looking. Inflation has cooled, wage growth has moderated, and economic momentum is slowing. Now is the time for the Fed to focus not on headline fears, but on real-time data.

Until recently, commercial real estate appeared poised for a long-awaited rebound. However, 2025 has revealed a new reality: Uncertainty has become structural.

Until that US government debt-crisis moment arrives, which we will get through, things will muddle along.

Last week's economic data presented a mixed picture, emerging against the backdrop of a record market rally and rising inflation.

Index futures inched upward premarket as the headline May PCE data landed in line with expectations, though the core data and annual figures were up slightly.

Money Metals Midweek Memo host Mike Maharrey isn’t buying the recent bearish turn in gold forecasts from Wall Street.