Outlooks

Liberation Day seems like a lifetime ago. But the 90-day pause is almost over, and—thus far—there are few deals that have been consummated.

We expect tariff policy to remain a key part of the narrative pushed by the administration.

In this month’s issue, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity explains how markets in many regions are weathering US policy uncertainty and offers an upbeat assessment of Vietnam after a recent research visit.

In the weeks leading up to last month’s Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, oil prices climbed – not due to actual supply disruptions, but in response to a geopolitical risk premium.

A new era of regulation is bound to bring high hopes for the crypto bulls. House Republicans are now gearing up for “Crypto Week” – during which the committee has agreed to prioritize digital asset legislation and review several crypto-related bills.

Our strategy work and quantitative insights suggest the conditions behind more than a decade of U.S. equity outperformance are starting to shift.

Our long-time investors are probably wondering why we haven’t made any gains over the last 18 months.

Looking at the first half of 2025 reveals a nuanced landscape for private equity (PE) and principal investors.

The artificial intelligence investment landscape reached a critical inflection point in Q2 2025, with the ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence Index (THNQ) delivering exceptional returns of 24.4%.

ClearBridge Investments believes positive forces from One Big Beautiful Bill Act passage and future interest rate cuts should soon outweigh negative forces of tariff actions.

Markets rebounded sharply in 2Q 2025 following April’s tariff-driven selloff. Our mid-year market outlook breaks down the recovery, Fed policy, and where to invest next.

Elevated interest rates and market uncertainty make for an interesting tandem regarding getting core bond exposure. When considering yield, reinforcing a portfolio to absorb market shocks, or both, consider this active option from Vanguard: the Vanguard Core-Plus Bond ETF (VPLS).

Tariff volatility rocked markets for much of the second quarter, creating pressure on U.S. bonds and equities. In the challenging environment, rife with uncertainty and investor concern, a handful of funds generated significant performance.

How the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund’s strategy helped it achieve outperformance during a historic period for global markets.

The headline employment figure came in stronger than expected and better than feared following the weak ADP report, but the details were far from a blockbuster.

In the latest Alternative Allocations, with guest Brian Ullsperger from Andersen, Tony Davidow examines the traditional 60/40 portfolio and how it can be expanded to include alternatives to meet clients’ needs.

If you’ve been following the mainstream financial media lately, you might think the airline industry is in crisis. From headlines about tariffs and labor costs to geopolitical tensions and delays at Newark Airport, it sounds like air travel should be tanking.

We upgrade equities to neutral from underweight as falling interest rates and improving economic conditions in emerging markets offset uncertainty over US tariff policies.

It was a positive quarter for emerging markets equities.

The earnings bar is fairly low for the second quarter, setting companies up for a potential easy jump—but there will likely be more focus on forward guidance.

As the second half gets underway, we think a modest overweight to risk assets is called for.

This year, so far, the world has been riddled with geopolitical news, resonating in widespread unrest, yet seemingly yielding less impact on financial markets.

In the immediate aftermath of Friday’s much anticipated Employment Report it seemed like the judgement from analysts, talking heads, and even markets was unanimous (or nearly so) that there was good news to celebrate.

Below, we recount highlights from constituents of the ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index (ROBO) and the ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence Index (THNQ).

Semiconductor equities and related ETFs notched impressive performances in the first half of the year. They were buoyed by ongoing enthusiasm for the AI trade and post-Liberation Day resurgence by the Magnificent Seven.

Investors attempting to manage volatility in their portfolio often employ defensive equity strategies to define their optimal market exposure and risk profile. Such strategies are designed to help limit losses on the downside, while also allowing investors to participate in the market’s gains.

In last week’s letter, I referenced Torsten Sløk’s excellent midyear outlook for Apollo Global Management. Today I’ll share some longer quotes which will, I hope, help you visualize where the economy is headed.

Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.

This quarter might best be described as the “Big Beautiful Bounce”. Or the BBB. History has proven time and time again that markets do come back – but this was a historically quick market turnaround.

After a tumultuous few months, June of 2025 saw a strong rally which took global markets to (or close to) new highs. The rally was broad-based, with international and U.S. markets all up strongly.

From investing to economics to politics, patterns emerge, lessons resurface and the past becomes a powerful guide for navigating today’s unpredictable landscape. Timing, perspective and adaptability can make all the difference in managing the complexities of modern markets.

As the global economy navigates a complex landscape, investors are left wondering: are they right to be optimistic or are they being complacent? This article from Franklin Templeton Institute explores the signs of resilience as well as numerous risks.

Sharp U.S. policy shift and elevated uncertainty reflect an evolution of the new macro regime. What matters: getting a grip on uncertainty by identifying its core features.

Some say private credit hasn’t been tested. We disagree…and stress can sharpen the senses.

The first half of 2025 may not have been kind to private equity, but new data suggests that things could turn around soon.

Israel-Iran hostilities brought a short-term market focus on oil. Longer term, artificial intelligence (AI) electricity needs could create a power shortage, as well as opportunities and risks for investors.

Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.

We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.

It has been over six months since the FOMC has made a change to the Fed Funds rate. While the debate continues as to when the next cut will be, market consensus (per Bloomberg calculations) is currently for a 25 basis point cut in September.

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Global Chief Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman explored key drivers behind the strong performance in markets. He also provided an update on a proposed U.S. tax measure.

The US economy is important, but it’s not the only one in a global approach.

In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.

This year’s formidable challenges have clarified strategic lessons for equity investors to apply in the coming months

The marathon Senate budget vote took center stage early and stocks slipped from yesterday's all-time highs. Job openings, Powell, and manufacturing data are top of mind.

Goldman Sachs entered the ETF market nearly 10 years ago, yet two of its most popular products in 2025 are relatively new, both with less than a two-year track record.

As direct lending matures and other private credit areas expand, active investors can apply relative value strategies across sectors – and even entire markets – to pursue enhanced outcomes.