Join the experts at SoFi for a product due diligence session covering the evolving income landscape and how options strategies can help investors pursue monthly income in different ways.
We are in a debt trap. Our political process can’t reduce spending and/or raise taxes enough to balance the budget, so the debt grows and grows. As it does, paying the interest plus the accumulated debt load pulls more capital away from more productive uses. This depresses economic growth, thereby generating even more spending and debt.
In 3Q26, global fixed-income markets continue to navigate a complex backdrop as resilient growth, elevated inflation, hawkish central-bank pricing and the AI infrastructure buildout intersect. Growth remains supported by the US consumer, fiscal spending in Europe and AI-related capital investment, while inflation is expected to moderate through 2026 and into 2027.
Franklin Templeton Institute finds valuations across fixed income sectors becoming more attractive, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels—a signal to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core bond portfolios.
The yield on the 10-year note finished August 14, 2026 at 4.68% while the 2-year note ended at 4.17%.
The US will soon announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, intensifying the Trump administration’s effort to force Tehran’s capitulation after almost six months of war.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s agreement to buy Neos Investments for as much as $2.25 billion marks a new front in Wall Street’s ETF battle: paying up for specialist firms that have found growth beyond the industry’s low-fee giants.
For most high-net-worth investors, the bond sleeve of a portfolio isn't there to generate eye-popping returns or provide cocktail party fodder. Its job is much more mainstream: support a targeted lifestyle, cover tax bills, dampen equity market volatility, and provide "dry powder" when the world turns sideways.
The S&P 500 towed an anchor for much of the summer as a historic momentum and leverage unwind under the surface dragged on the equity benchmark before breaking out to fresh records last week.
Royce Investment Partners: Co-CIO Francis Gannon examines the myth that rate hikes are bad news for US small-cap returns—and finds that history tells a different story.
While institutions have embraced private markets for decades, individuals have historically had limited access to these potentially valuable and versatile tools. Tony Davidow from Franklin Tempelton Institute demonstrates that private markets can be potentially valuable sources of growth and income during the accumulation and distribution phases of retirement.
The release of ChatGPT in 2022 ushered in the AI era. Since then, technology stocks have emerged as a key driver of market performance. The extraordinary gains have naturally sparked questions about whether the momentum can continue, particularly as technology companies invest heavily in AI infrastructure.
The world’s busiest airport is coming to market with a more than $1 billion municipal bond sale, boosting issuance in the lagging airport sector.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was essentially flat month-over-month in July, at its lowest level in four months.
As we write this, long TIPS yields once again yield 3.0% and, as in 2008, these rates may not last long. That means: You snooze, you lose. The time to buy TIPS is now. In this article, we lay out the options and make recommendations.
Life rarely stands still, and for families caring for a loved one with special needs, change can introduce both emotional and financial complexity. Marriage, divorce, the loss of a parent, an unexpected inheritance, or shifts in public policy may all significantly impact eligibility for benefits, long-term financial security, and family dynamics.
European stock markets are booming. But that doesn’t mean Europe is. Traditionally, a bet on European equities is actually a bet on growth everywhere else. The companies that make up the Stoxx Europe 600 — which has risen by about 12% this year — get almost half their revenues outside the continent, according to the index’s owners.
The US government is about to sell 30-year bonds at the highest interest rate in a quarter of a century, after a historic selloff that has stirred speculation the nation will tilt borrowing further toward short-dated maturities.
After years of tests with digital versions of securities, cash and trading networks, the focus has shifted to whether these technologies could work together. This time, nearly 40 firms were testing how tokenized assets could move through the institutions that keep modern markets moving.
The US military campaign against Iran has so far failed to force the regime to capitulate. The Trump administration is betting once again that suffocating economic pressure will do the job.
The fixed income landscape continues to offer real opportunity this year as well as persistent, events-driven uncertainty. Still, cutting through the headlines, investors can find major opportunities inside the portfolios and in adding new funds.
The risks of a rate hike have increased lately, but we don't believe we're there just yet. If the data changes—specifically if inflation comes in hotter-than-expected over the next few months—we'll likely change our view.
All told, global equities are near all-time highs, despite the sharp June-July semiconductor drawdown. Fundamentally, an eye-popping 50% Q2 SPX earnings growth rate fuels the rally. Of course, it has been a perfect storm of sorts for domestic large-cap profitability.
Among the key benefits of the ETF wrapper is the wide range of tools it gives advisors and investors to build tailored fixed income portfolios. And given today’s complex rate and inflation environment, it certainly helps to have a wide range of options available.
There’s been no summer vacation for the bond market this year. It seems there’s a new headline every day that needs to be processed and responded to. In terms of Treasuries (UST), yields at the back-end of the curve have risen in notable fashion and have resulted in rates being at levels not seen in almost twenty years in some cases.
College planning begins long before college. Learn why welcoming a new child is the ideal time to build a strong financial foundation, explore education savings options and prepare for your family’s future.
Equities opened the week higher after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled on Monday morning that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within a day or two.
Inflation moderated for a second straight month, coming in at 3.4% year-over-year in July. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with economist estimates.
Discover the top ETF launches of summer 2026, including new funds from iShares, Amplify, and Defiance targeting crypto, AI, and core equity.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management is continuing its aggressive expansion into active, high-yielding options strategies with a definitive agreement to acquire NEOS Investments. Similar to Innovator Capital Management, another recent acquisition, NEOS has established a firm leadership position in the ETF space.
An in-line inflation reading spurred gains in both stocks and bonds, easing concern about imminent Federal Reserve rate increases despite elevated oil prices.
We’ve all seen how AI tools can boost our productivity and efficiency but, like most things in life, the benefits must be weighed against potential risks. Here are five best practices to help guide fiduciaries and ensure they benefit from these tools without running afoul of regulations.
South Korea expects to deploy more than 1 trillion won ($707 million) of fresh capital into a new sovereign wealth fund targeting AI and other strategic industries next year, joining a global push by governments to mobilize investment and gain an edge in high-tech sectors.
The market was jolted by a much weaker-than-expected employment report, sending Treasury yields sharply lower as investors quickly reduced the odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike. At first glance, the payroll number looked alarming, particularly when combined with sizable downward revisions to prior months and unexpectedly soft wage growth.
Municipals posted their weakest July return in more than two decades. The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index returned -1.85%, underperforming most investment-grade fixed-income sectors and marking just the fifth negative July return over the past 30 years.
Stocks moved higher as stronger economic data, solid corporate earnings and easing geopolitical concerns helped support investor optimism.
Demand continues to outpace record supply. Municipal bonds remain an attractive income opportunity in a market where the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to remain on hold and carry is driving returns. Despite record issuance of roughly $50 billion per month, demand has remained strong, supported by a reinvestment wave that is running approximately 40% above last year and favorable summer technicals.
Tech and AI are driving a greater share of global equity market returns and earnings growth, raising concentration risks and the need for broader diversification.
Investors, strategists, and market professionals cannot know exactly when interest rates will change, in which direction, or by how much. That does not mean we should ignore economic data, geopolitical developments, policy decisions, or consumer behavior. Those factors matter. But the number of variables and the ways in which they interact make consistently predicting interest rate turning points extremely difficult.
The mantra carrying the markets higher for years has been to leave it to mega-cap tech titans and AI leaders to drive the bulk of market gains, leaving cap-weighted indexes historically top-heavy. But a new narrative has begun to take over.
Unlike the previous 17 years, during which U.S. stocks were the best-performing asset class, they are in the middle of the results with a 10.5% return. Consequently, diversification beyond U.S. stocks and bonds has added value this year, as evidenced in portfolio performance.
A common pattern for couples who are trying to manage their spending goes like this: The partners sit down together, look at the numbers, lay out a spending plan, and agree on what has to change. This works for a few weeks. Then either or both slip back into old behaviors, and there’s a fight about money.
Earnings drive market corrections. That’s the finding, and the next serious decline won’t arrive with a headline about capital spending or the deficit but will begin exactly where all eight of the others began, in the profit cycle, surfacing in credit spreads and revision breadth well before it reaches any earnings report you can actually read.
The Securities and Exchange Commission has made it easier for data center owners to sell asset-backed securities, potentially opening the door for more debt sales as tech firms scour Wall Street for ways to pay for artificial intelligence.
Good or bad, right or wrong, estimates suggest that in the past eighteen months the net flow of immigrants (including the number of illegal immigrants who were deported) may have been negative. By contrast, in the prior four years the US took in more than eight million immigrants, on net. All these numbers could be revised or argued with over time.
Fifty-eight billion dollars. That’s what the Department of War just awarded Lockheed Martin for PAC-3 interceptors, the missiles that have been knocking Iranian ballistic missiles out of the sky for the past five months. It’s one of the largest munitions awards in U.S. history.
Today’s equity markets are arguably the most concentrated, interconnected and exposed to correlated risks in the modern era. In this fragile environment, we believe investors need more than just exposure to stocks that have driven recent market returns. Disciplined stock selection and clear risk objectives are essential—as well as conviction in what not to own.
US equity market leadership underwent a rotation in July, with previous leaders turning into laggards and vice versa.
We provide research and advice on asset allocation, the selection and weighting of various investment categories. Subject to internal review and governance, our recommendations guide the investment decisions in our family of mutual funds and institutional client portfolios.
With earnings season entering its final peak week, investors will be focused on results from restaurant names such as CAVA Group (CAVA), Jack in the Box (JACK), Red Robin Group (RRGB) and Brinker International (EAT).
For three years, clients have asked the same question: “How do I get into SpaceX or OpenAI before the IPO?” That question just changed tense.
Given how uncertain advisors and investors are over the Federal Reserve’s plans for handling interest rates, the July jobs report was perhaps watched even more closely than normal. That being said, the latest report may not have inspired much confidence.
Here are three tips for young investors setting out to build wealth but not sure where to start.
What stock fund could be safer than a total U.S. stock market index fund with thousands of securities? That was my thinking for the last three decades, but things are changing.
Our thesis remains largely unchanged. Today's “exploding” CDS spreads and bond yields are pricing an Oracle problem. The question investors should be asking isn't whether Oracle is an outlier. It clearly is. The question is whether Oracle is a preview of what happens to credit markets more broadly if AI capital spending keeps outrunning AI revenue.
San Juan, the economic hub of Puerto Rico, triggered a rush for its $121 million muni-bond sale this week, as investors seized a rare opportunity to get exposure to island.
The leveraged ETF boom is creating new ways to profit from sudden bursts of volatility in tech stocks.
Getting on an airplane has become the perfect metaphor for life in America. On the one hand, flying has become cheaper and more accessible. On the other, it has become more stratified and stressful.
“Sound money,” in its purest form, is money whose supply a government cannot expand at will. Under a gold standard, every dollar is a claim on a fixed weight of gold. You can’t print gold. So the government can’t monetize its deficits, and the money supply grows only as fast as miners pull metal out of the ground, historically around 1.5% a year.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The AI capital expenditure cycle remains solidly on track to eclipse the telecom boom of the late 1990s and become the largest investment cycle since the railway buildout of the 19th century in inflation-adjusted terms. T
Fixed income markets continue to adjust to an evolving policy backdrop following last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale explains why dividend growth investing can be one of the most conservative and rewarding long-term investment strategies—especially when combined with sound valuation principles.
Lots has been written about the strength of the US economy not translating into improvement in the different measures of consumer confidence and consumer sentiment over the last several years.
While long-term interest rates have been trending higher driven by a combination of persistent inflation, Fed uncertainty and geopolitical conflict, earnings growth this year has been very strong. If the trend continues, earnings could continue to help equity markets outpace rising interest rate and inflation risks.
Stronger gold prices are happening for a couple different reasons. First of all, optimism is rising that the Strait of Hormuz may finally reopen soon. The news in Iran is certainly welcome, but new jobs data from ADP is helping gold, too.
There is no one-size-fits-all individual investment strategy. We all have different needs. Once I decided I needed a portfolio that would work for today, I became convinced that a dividend growth portfolio should be the core of my long-term investment strategy. Not an addition, but the core.
US 10-year Treasury yields have climbed roughly 50-basis points since the start of 2026. This is not an inflation scare. Despite the sharp rise in energy prices following the outbreak of war with Iran, market-based measures of medium-term inflation expectations have drifted lower.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is setting up a reinsurance vehicle with Talcott Financial Group that has so far raised $1 billion.
US Treasuries rallied after data showed employers unexpectedly cut jobs in July, suggesting labor market challenges that could impact the Federal Reserve’s willingness to raise interest rates.
The S&P 500 was flat in July 2026 as semiconductors fell 29%, energy gained nearly 13% on higher oil, and long-term Treasury yields reached their highest levels since 2007.
A good financial plan may bring together every aspect of your financial life into a coordinated strategy, providing a clear view of where you are today and helping you prepare for where you want to go. By understanding your complete financial picture, you can make informed decisions that align with your goals, values, and long-term priorities.
Investors remain cautious despite bullish positioning, as rotations curb speculation while record margin debt and high equity allocations raise longer-term risks.
As many of you know, our team at Smead Capital Management has studied the thinking and investment careers of Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett. In today’s Go-Go artificial intelligence-dominated stock market, we’d like to walk you through the concept of the Circle of Competence.
In this article, Russ Koesterich explains how the recent market rotation has pressured tech stocks while creating an attractive long-term buying opportunity.
Investors are warming to systematic processes in bond markets. In this new approach, a dynamic multifactor process drives the investment decisions, using predictive factors with demonstrable links to outperformance.
Reducing or eliminating debt might feel like the ultimate financial milestone, but paying off debt early – or avoiding it entirely – can limit future opportunities for building or preserving wealth. During periods of volatility, it may be tempting to get rid of debt for short-term relief, but this could compromise your long-term plan. Staying the course may be crucial to your goals – no matter the market.
Discover why higher Treasury yields, strong ETF demand, and active management are creating new opportunities in muni bonds for advisors.
Given the current state of inflation and interest rates, it’s probable that many advisors and investors are considering alternative ways of fostering income within their portfolios.
Reflecting on the first half of 2026 provides a clear roadmap to strategize for the remainder of the year. Before that can occur, however, it’s imperative to check the pulse on the current state of the market and posit what may happen next.
Alphabet Inc. is looking to raise as much as $25 billion from its latest US investment-grade bond offering, a deal that will test investor appetite for AI-related debt following a July selloff.
While the outcome of the July FOMC meeting itself was in line with expectations, the aftermath has proven to be far more challenging for the money and bond markets, especially for longer-dated maturities, a.k.a. duration. Investors, as well as Fed Chairman Warsh, have quickly discovered something we have been highlighting about over the last few months: a lack of forward guidance can have unintended consequences.
Investors worried about highly appreciated stock positions and the related capital gains exposure may avoid transitioning concentrated portfolios to more diversified tax-managed solutions. In our view, a multiphase transition may enable them to strike a balance between how fast concentration risk is diversified and the size of their annual tax bill.
In the span of a few weeks, a new college student takes on loan debt, gets their first credit card offer, and starts managing daily expenses on their own. They're buying groceries, splitting costs with roommates, saying yes to things they probably can't afford yet. No other period of life throws that many financial decisions at someone with that little experience.
On Wednesday afternoon the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting, and stocks buckled: the Dow fell 1,153 points, its worst day since April of last year.
This year has offered a vivid reminder of how quickly market conditions can shift—from policy uncertainty, to a sharp geopolitical shock, to a focus on an AI-driven rally. As the themes of the day changed, the case for an overlay persisted.
The AI question is not really a technology question for your firm; it is a documentation question wearing a technology costume. Your advisors are already using it, and the SEC has already told you it is watching how you handle it. The only open question is whether, when an examiner asks, you can show your work.
Outlining clear expectations for success — desired outcomes that are both quantifiable and qualitative. It means setting objectives to meet these desired outcomes every week and then checking in to see to see if they met them.
One of my most controversial opinions is that the 401(k) is one of the great financial inventions of the 20th century. It is not a view shared by many people — including, apparently, the inventor himself, Ted Benna, who argues that the 401(k) has mainly benefited the wealthy.
Fixed Income
In the search for yield, you have options
Join the experts at SoFi for a product due diligence session covering the evolving income landscape and how options strategies can help investors pursue monthly income in different ways.
Caught in a Debt Trap
We are in a debt trap. Our political process can’t reduce spending and/or raise taxes enough to balance the budget, so the debt grows and grows. As it does, paying the interest plus the accumulated debt load pulls more capital away from more productive uses. This depresses economic growth, thereby generating even more spending and debt.
Key Convictions: Third Quarter 2026
In 3Q26, global fixed-income markets continue to navigate a complex backdrop as resilient growth, elevated inflation, hawkish central-bank pricing and the AI infrastructure buildout intersect. Growth remains supported by the US consumer, fiscal spending in Europe and AI-related capital investment, while inflation is expected to moderate through 2026 and into 2027.
Time for Core (Plus) Bond Portfolios Again?
Franklin Templeton Institute finds valuations across fixed income sectors becoming more attractive, with all-in yields approaching compelling levels—a signal to consider moving from a short-duration bias toward core bond portfolios.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: August 14, 2026
The yield on the 10-year note finished August 14, 2026 at 4.68% while the 2-year note ended at 4.17%.
US Readies Unprecedented ‘Economic Isolation’ Plan for Iran
The US will soon announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, intensifying the Trump administration’s effort to force Tehran’s capitulation after almost six months of war.
Goldman $2.25 Billion Neos Deal Raises Stakes in Active-ETF Race
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s agreement to buy Neos Investments for as much as $2.25 billion marks a new front in Wall Street’s ETF battle: paying up for specialist firms that have found growth beyond the industry’s low-fee giants.
Is Your Bond Strategy Built for Change?
For most high-net-worth investors, the bond sleeve of a portfolio isn't there to generate eye-popping returns or provide cocktail party fodder. Its job is much more mainstream: support a targeted lifestyle, cover tax bills, dampen equity market volatility, and provide "dry powder" when the world turns sideways.
Yields on the Rise: Do Stocks Notice?
The S&P 500 towed an anchor for much of the summer as a historic momentum and leverage unwind under the surface dragged on the equity benchmark before breaking out to fresh records last week.
The Interest-Rate Myth and What Really Drives US Small-Cap Returns
Royce Investment Partners: Co-CIO Francis Gannon examines the myth that rate hikes are bad news for US small-cap returns—and finds that history tells a different story.
Building Better Portfolios With Private Markets: Rethinking Retirement
While institutions have embraced private markets for decades, individuals have historically had limited access to these potentially valuable and versatile tools. Tony Davidow from Franklin Tempelton Institute demonstrates that private markets can be potentially valuable sources of growth and income during the accumulation and distribution phases of retirement.
AI Infrastructure Spending Puts Free Cash Flow Levels in Focus
The release of ChatGPT in 2022 ushered in the AI era. Since then, technology stocks have emerged as a key driver of market performance. The extraordinary gains have naturally sparked questions about whether the momentum can continue, particularly as technology companies invest heavily in AI infrastructure.
Atlanta Airport Taps Munis for $1.1 Billion Mega Bond Sale
The world’s busiest airport is coming to market with a more than $1 billion municipal bond sale, boosting issuance in the lagging airport sector.
Producer Price Index: Flat, at Lowest Level in Four Months
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was essentially flat month-over-month in July, at its lowest level in four months.
Long TIPS Yield 3%. Time to Buy?
As we write this, long TIPS yields once again yield 3.0% and, as in 2008, these rates may not last long. That means: You snooze, you lose. The time to buy TIPS is now. In this article, we lay out the options and make recommendations.
Updating Your Plan for Life’s Changes: Marriage, Divorce, Inheritance, and Policy Shifts
Life rarely stands still, and for families caring for a loved one with special needs, change can introduce both emotional and financial complexity. Marriage, divorce, the loss of a parent, an unexpected inheritance, or shifts in public policy may all significantly impact eligibility for benefits, long-term financial security, and family dynamics.
Europe’s Stock Market Boom Is Hiding a Darker Truth
European stock markets are booming. But that doesn’t mean Europe is. Traditionally, a bet on European equities is actually a bet on growth everywhere else. The companies that make up the Stoxx Europe 600 — which has risen by about 12% this year — get almost half their revenues outside the continent, according to the index’s owners.
US Set to Pay Most for 30-Year Debt in Quarter of a Century
The US government is about to sell 30-year bonds at the highest interest rate in a quarter of a century, after a historic selloff that has stirred speculation the nation will tilt borrowing further toward short-dated maturities.
JPMorgan, Goldman, Invesco Test Blockchain Across Wall Street
After years of tests with digital versions of securities, cash and trading networks, the focus has shifted to whether these technologies could work together. This time, nearly 40 firms were testing how tokenized assets could move through the institutions that keep modern markets moving.
Trump Pivots to Economic Squeeze of ‘Entrenched’ Iran Regime
The US military campaign against Iran has so far failed to force the regime to capitulate. The Trump administration is betting once again that suffocating economic pressure will do the job.
American Century’s Gotelli Talks Key Muni Bonds Opportunity
The fixed income landscape continues to offer real opportunity this year as well as persistent, events-driven uncertainty. Still, cutting through the headlines, investors can find major opportunities inside the portfolios and in adding new funds.
Fed and Treasury Update: Higher-for-Longer Yields
The risks of a rate hike have increased lately, but we don't believe we're there just yet. If the data changes—specifically if inflation comes in hotter-than-expected over the next few months—we'll likely change our view.
Mid-Quarter Investor Conference Calendar: Stocks Heat Up Heading Into Autumn
All told, global equities are near all-time highs, despite the sharp June-July semiconductor drawdown. Fundamentally, an eye-popping 50% Q2 SPX earnings growth rate fuels the rally. Of course, it has been a perfect storm of sorts for domestic large-cap profitability.
Is it Time to Take a Closer Look at Target Maturity ETFs?
Among the key benefits of the ETF wrapper is the wide range of tools it gives advisors and investors to build tailored fixed income portfolios. And given today’s complex rate and inflation environment, it certainly helps to have a wide range of options available.
What’s Driving Treasury Yields Higher?
There’s been no summer vacation for the bond market this year. It seems there’s a new headline every day that needs to be processed and responded to. In terms of Treasuries (UST), yields at the back-end of the curve have risen in notable fashion and have resulted in rates being at levels not seen in almost twenty years in some cases.
College Planning Starts Earlier Than You Think
College planning begins long before college. Learn why welcoming a new child is the ideal time to build a strong financial foundation, explore education savings options and prepare for your family’s future.
Iran Deal Never Came. Stocks Didn’t Care.
Equities opened the week higher after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled on Monday morning that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within a day or two.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation at 3.4% in July
Inflation moderated for a second straight month, coming in at 3.4% year-over-year in July. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with economist estimates.
Top ETF Launches of Summer 2026
Discover the top ETF launches of summer 2026, including new funds from iShares, Amplify, and Defiance targeting crypto, AI, and core equity.
Goldman Plays Options Offense: Acquiring NEOS to Build Active ETF Powerhouse
Goldman Sachs Asset Management is continuing its aggressive expansion into active, high-yielding options strategies with a definitive agreement to acquire NEOS Investments. Similar to Innovator Capital Management, another recent acquisition, NEOS has established a firm leadership position in the ETF space.
Stocks, Bonds Rise as Tame CPI Curbs Fed-Hike Bets
An in-line inflation reading spurred gains in both stocks and bonds, easing concern about imminent Federal Reserve rate increases despite elevated oil prices.
5 Steps To Help Retirement Advisors Compliantly Integrate AI Usage Into Their Practices
We’ve all seen how AI tools can boost our productivity and efficiency but, like most things in life, the benefits must be weighed against potential risks. Here are five best practices to help guide fiduciaries and ensure they benefit from these tools without running afoul of regulations.
Korea Sovereign Wealth Fund to Join Global Race for AI, Robotics
South Korea expects to deploy more than 1 trillion won ($707 million) of fresh capital into a new sovereign wealth fund targeting AI and other strategic industries next year, joining a global push by governments to mobilize investment and gain an edge in high-tech sectors.
Soft Payrolls, Strong Earnings Reinforce Bullish Outlook
The market was jolted by a much weaker-than-expected employment report, sending Treasury yields sharply lower as investors quickly reduced the odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike. At first glance, the payroll number looked alarming, particularly when combined with sizable downward revisions to prior months and unexpectedly soft wage growth.
Muni Monthly: July 2026
Municipals posted their weakest July return in more than two decades. The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index returned -1.85%, underperforming most investment-grade fixed-income sectors and marking just the fifth negative July return over the past 30 years.
Strong Economic Data and Earnings Push Stocks Higher
Stocks moved higher as stronger economic data, solid corporate earnings and easing geopolitical concerns helped support investor optimism.
Why Carry Is the Strategy
Demand continues to outpace record supply. Municipal bonds remain an attractive income opportunity in a market where the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to remain on hold and carry is driving returns. Despite record issuance of roughly $50 billion per month, demand has remained strong, supported by a reinvestment wave that is running approximately 40% above last year and favorable summer technicals.
Equity Diversification in an Era of Concentration
Tech and AI are driving a greater share of global equity market returns and earnings growth, raising concentration risks and the need for broader diversification.
Asking the Right Questions
Investors, strategists, and market professionals cannot know exactly when interest rates will change, in which direction, or by how much. That does not mean we should ignore economic data, geopolitical developments, policy decisions, or consumer behavior. Those factors matter. But the number of variables and the ways in which they interact make consistently predicting interest rate turning points extremely difficult.
Value Strikes Back: Inside 2026’s Great Rotation
The mantra carrying the markets higher for years has been to leave it to mega-cap tech titans and AI leaders to drive the bulk of market gains, leaving cap-weighted indexes historically top-heavy. But a new narrative has begun to take over.
Asset Classes & Portfolios: Diversification Beyond U.S. Stocks & Bonds Is Working
Unlike the previous 17 years, during which U.S. stocks were the best-performing asset class, they are in the middle of the results with a 10.5% return. Consequently, diversification beyond U.S. stocks and bonds has added value this year, as evidenced in portfolio performance.
Small Steps Can Help Couples Begin Changing a Cycle of Money Conflict
A common pattern for couples who are trying to manage their spending goes like this: The partners sit down together, look at the numbers, lay out a spending plan, and agree on what has to change. This works for a few weeks. Then either or both slip back into old behaviors, and there’s a fight about money.
Earnings Drive Both Bull & Bear Markets
Earnings drive market corrections. That’s the finding, and the next serious decline won’t arrive with a headline about capital spending or the deficit but will begin exactly where all eight of the others began, in the profit cycle, surfacing in credit spreads and revision breadth well before it reaches any earnings report you can actually read.
SEC Exempts Data-Center Bonds From Key Securitization Rules
The Securities and Exchange Commission has made it easier for data center owners to sell asset-backed securities, potentially opening the door for more debt sales as tech firms scour Wall Street for ways to pay for artificial intelligence.
A Low-Immigration Economy
Good or bad, right or wrong, estimates suggest that in the past eighteen months the net flow of immigrants (including the number of illegal immigrants who were deported) may have been negative. By contrast, in the prior four years the US took in more than eight million immigrants, on net. All these numbers could be revised or argued with over time.
The U.S. Needs Missiles Faster Than It Can Build Them
Fifty-eight billion dollars. That’s what the Department of War just awarded Lockheed Martin for PAC-3 interceptors, the missiles that have been knocking Iranian ballistic missiles out of the sky for the past five months. It’s one of the largest munitions awards in U.S. history.
So, Why Don't You Own It?
Today’s equity markets are arguably the most concentrated, interconnected and exposed to correlated risks in the modern era. In this fragile environment, we believe investors need more than just exposure to stocks that have driven recent market returns. Disciplined stock selection and clear risk objectives are essential—as well as conviction in what not to own.
A Broader Market Is Finding its Footing
US equity market leadership underwent a rotation in July, with previous leaders turning into laggards and vice versa.
The Economics of Asset Allocation
We provide research and advice on asset allocation, the selection and weighting of various investment categories. Subject to internal review and governance, our recommendations guide the investment decisions in our family of mutual funds and institutional client portfolios.
Earnings Signals & Labor Slowdowns: Testing the Limits of Consumer Resilience
With earnings season entering its final peak week, investors will be focused on results from restaurant names such as CAVA Group (CAVA), Jack in the Box (JACK), Red Robin Group (RRGB) and Brinker International (EAT).
The Trillion-Dollar Trio Goes Public: What Advisors Need to Know About SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI
For three years, clients have asked the same question: “How do I get into SpaceX or OpenAI before the IPO?” That question just changed tense.
What the July Jobs Report Means for Fixed Income Portfolios
Given how uncertain advisors and investors are over the Federal Reserve’s plans for handling interest rates, the July jobs report was perhaps watched even more closely than normal. That being said, the latest report may not have inspired much confidence.
3 Tips for Young Investors Building Wealth
Here are three tips for young investors setting out to build wealth but not sure where to start.
The Mega-cap IPOs’ Impact on Index Funds
What stock fund could be safer than a total U.S. stock market index fund with thousands of securities? That was my thinking for the last three decades, but things are changing.
Hidden Debt: Is Our Hyperscaler Thesis Wrong?
Our thesis remains largely unchanged. Today's “exploding” CDS spreads and bond yields are pricing an Oracle problem. The question investors should be asking isn't whether Oracle is an outlier. It clearly is. The question is whether Oracle is a preview of what happens to credit markets more broadly if AI capital spending keeps outrunning AI revenue.
Puerto Rico’s Capital Sees Blowout Demand for Rare Muni Sal
San Juan, the economic hub of Puerto Rico, triggered a rush for its $121 million muni-bond sale this week, as investors seized a rare opportunity to get exposure to island.
Leveraged ETF Boom Creates New Ways to Profit From Sudden Bursts of Volatility
The leveraged ETF boom is creating new ways to profit from sudden bursts of volatility in tech stocks.
To Understand the US Economy, Just Board an Airplane
Getting on an airplane has become the perfect metaphor for life in America. On the one hand, flying has become cheaper and more accessible. On the other, it has become more stratified and stressful.
Sound Money: Be Careful What You Wish For
“Sound money,” in its purest form, is money whose supply a government cannot expand at will. Under a gold standard, every dollar is a claim on a fixed weight of gold. You can’t print gold. So the government can’t monetize its deficits, and the money supply grows only as fast as miners pull metal out of the ground, historically around 1.5% a year.
Earnings Drive the Tape
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The AI Split Between U.S. Dollar and Euro Investment Grade
The AI capital expenditure cycle remains solidly on track to eclipse the telecom boom of the late 1990s and become the largest investment cycle since the railway buildout of the 19th century in inflation-adjusted terms. T
AI Borrowing Reshapes the Bond Market
Fixed income markets continue to adjust to an evolving policy backdrop following last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
12 Fairly Valued Dividend Growth Stocks
In this video, Chuck Carnevale explains why dividend growth investing can be one of the most conservative and rewarding long-term investment strategies—especially when combined with sound valuation principles.
Businesses Are Not Sharing the Wealth With Workers
Lots has been written about the strength of the US economy not translating into improvement in the different measures of consumer confidence and consumer sentiment over the last several years.
Will Earnings Growth Outpace Rising Rates?
While long-term interest rates have been trending higher driven by a combination of persistent inflation, Fed uncertainty and geopolitical conflict, earnings growth this year has been very strong. If the trend continues, earnings could continue to help equity markets outpace rising interest rate and inflation risks.
Looking at Gold? Active ETFs Can Ride the Rally
Stronger gold prices are happening for a couple different reasons. First of all, optimism is rising that the Strait of Hormuz may finally reopen soon. The news in Iran is certainly welcome, but new jobs data from ADP is helping gold, too.
What’s in Your Portfolio Wallet?
There is no one-size-fits-all individual investment strategy. We all have different needs. Once I decided I needed a portfolio that would work for today, I became convinced that a dividend growth portfolio should be the core of my long-term investment strategy. Not an addition, but the core.
Bonds are Back: The Real Yield Reset
US 10-year Treasury yields have climbed roughly 50-basis points since the start of 2026. This is not an inflation scare. Despite the sharp rise in energy prices following the outbreak of war with Iran, market-based measures of medium-term inflation expectations have drifted lower.
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Goldman Sachs Creates $1 Billion Reinsurance Pool With Talcott
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is setting up a reinsurance vehicle with Talcott Financial Group that has so far raised $1 billion.
US Treasuries Rally as Soft Jobs Data Trims Fed Rate-Hike Bets
US Treasuries rallied after data showed employers unexpectedly cut jobs in July, suggesting labor market challenges that could impact the Federal Reserve’s willingness to raise interest rates.
July 2026 Market Update: The AI Selloff, Middle East Tensions and What it Means for Your Portfolio
The S&P 500 was flat in July 2026 as semiconductors fell 29%, energy gained nearly 13% on higher oil, and long-term Treasury yields reached their highest levels since 2007.
The Importance of Starting with a Plan
A good financial plan may bring together every aspect of your financial life into a coordinated strategy, providing a clear view of where you are today and helping you prepare for where you want to go. By understanding your complete financial picture, you can make informed decisions that align with your goals, values, and long-term priorities.
The Way You Make Me Feel: Sentiment's Message
Investors remain cautious despite bullish positioning, as rotations curb speculation while record margin debt and high equity allocations raise longer-term risks.
Circle Of Competence
As many of you know, our team at Smead Capital Management has studied the thinking and investment careers of Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett. In today’s Go-Go artificial intelligence-dominated stock market, we’d like to walk you through the concept of the Circle of Competence.
Tech Selloff Creates an Opportunity
In this article, Russ Koesterich explains how the recent market rotation has pressured tech stocks while creating an attractive long-term buying opportunity.
Hiring a Systematic Bond Manager? Seven Questions for Candidates
Investors are warming to systematic processes in bond markets. In this new approach, a dynamic multifactor process drives the investment decisions, using predictive factors with demonstrable links to outperformance.
The Strategic Side of Debt
Reducing or eliminating debt might feel like the ultimate financial milestone, but paying off debt early – or avoiding it entirely – can limit future opportunities for building or preserving wealth. During periods of volatility, it may be tempting to get rid of debt for short-term relief, but this could compromise your long-term plan. Staying the course may be crucial to your goals – no matter the market.
Higher Rates Create New Opportunities in Muni Bonds
Discover why higher Treasury yields, strong ETF demand, and active management are creating new opportunities in muni bonds for advisors.
Is It Time to Seize the Annuity Opportunities?
Given the current state of inflation and interest rates, it’s probable that many advisors and investors are considering alternative ways of fostering income within their portfolios.
Capitalizing on Rational Optimism: Fidelity Strategists’ 2026 Market Outlook
Reflecting on the first half of 2026 provides a clear roadmap to strategize for the remainder of the year. Before that can occur, however, it’s imperative to check the pulse on the current state of the market and posit what may happen next.
Alphabet Is Seeking Up to $25 Billion From Latest Bond Sale
Alphabet Inc. is looking to raise as much as $25 billion from its latest US investment-grade bond offering, a deal that will test investor appetite for AI-related debt following a July selloff.
Is the Bond Market Putting Warsh in a Corner?
While the outcome of the July FOMC meeting itself was in line with expectations, the aftermath has proven to be far more challenging for the money and bond markets, especially for longer-dated maturities, a.k.a. duration. Investors, as well as Fed Chairman Warsh, have quickly discovered something we have been highlighting about over the last few months: a lack of forward guidance can have unintended consequences.
Transitioning Concentrated Positions Doesn’t Have to Be All or Nothing
Investors worried about highly appreciated stock positions and the related capital gains exposure may avoid transitioning concentrated portfolios to more diversified tax-managed solutions. In our view, a multiphase transition may enable them to strike a balance between how fast concentration risk is diversified and the size of their annual tax bill.
The Financial Skills Your College Student Needs Before Move-In Day
In the span of a few weeks, a new college student takes on loan debt, gets their first credit card offer, and starts managing daily expenses on their own. They're buying groceries, splitting costs with roommates, saying yes to things they probably can't afford yet. No other period of life throws that many financial decisions at someone with that little experience.
Stocks Heard a Dove. The Bond Market Didn’t.
On Wednesday afternoon the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting, and stocks buckled: the Dow fell 1,153 points, its worst day since April of last year.
Why Portfolio Overlays Matter in Uncertain Market Environments
This year has offered a vivid reminder of how quickly market conditions can shift—from policy uncertainty, to a sharp geopolitical shock, to a focus on an AI-driven rally. As the themes of the day changed, the case for an overlay persisted.
Your Advisors Already Use AI. Your Manual Says They Don’t.
The AI question is not really a technology question for your firm; it is a documentation question wearing a technology costume. Your advisors are already using it, and the SEC has already told you it is watching how you handle it. The only open question is whether, when an examiner asks, you can show your work.
Managing Unmotivated Staff You Can’t Afford to Lose
Outlining clear expectations for success — desired outcomes that are both quantifiable and qualitative. It means setting objectives to meet these desired outcomes every week and then checking in to see to see if they met them.
A 401(k) Is the Best Retirement Plan, Despite Its Inventor’s Doubts
One of my most controversial opinions is that the 401(k) is one of the great financial inventions of the 20th century. It is not a view shared by many people — including, apparently, the inventor himself, Ted Benna, who argues that the 401(k) has mainly benefited the wealthy.