One of the more storied headlines this year has been President Trump’s disappointment with the Fed for not cutting rates. We should all know by now that the President cannot fire a Fed Chair simply because he/she is not lowering interest rates to their liking.
Liberation Day seems like a lifetime ago. But the 90-day pause is almost over, and—thus far—there are few deals that have been consummated.
In this month’s issue, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity explains how markets in many regions are weathering US policy uncertainty and offers an upbeat assessment of Vietnam after a recent research visit.
In the weeks leading up to last month’s Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, oil prices climbed – not due to actual supply disruptions, but in response to a geopolitical risk premium.
Looking at the first half of 2025 reveals a nuanced landscape for private equity (PE) and principal investors.
ClearBridge Investments believes positive forces from One Big Beautiful Bill Act passage and future interest rate cuts should soon outweigh negative forces of tariff actions.
If you're thinking about adding subscription services to your financial planning practice, you're not alone. More advisors are moving beyond the traditional AUM model to offer monthly subscription plans, and for good reason.
Markets rebounded sharply in 2Q 2025 following April’s tariff-driven selloff. Our mid-year market outlook breaks down the recovery, Fed policy, and where to invest next.
Are interest rates too high? A lot of people think they are, and a growing chorus of voices is calling on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut rates.
How the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund’s strategy helped it achieve outperformance during a historic period for global markets.
We upgrade equities to neutral from underweight as falling interest rates and improving economic conditions in emerging markets offset uncertainty over US tariff policies.
HSBC is turning cautious on three of the biggest US bank stocks following a record rally that’s brought the group within shouting distance of an all-time high.
The earnings bar is fairly low for the second quarter, setting companies up for a potential easy jump—but there will likely be more focus on forward guidance.
In part 2 of this series, this article looks past the data center operators and focuses on the natural gas pipelines and the manufacturers of natural gas power plant equipment.
The yield on the 10-year note ended July 3, 2025 at 4.35%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.88% and the 30-year note ended at 4.86%.
The bull market is alive and well, even amid widespread talk of the “death of U.S. exceptionalism.
Investors looking for cash flow from commercial real estate may want to check out the debt side.
After a tumultuous few months, June of 2025 saw a strong rally which took global markets to (or close to) new highs. The rally was broad-based, with international and U.S. markets all up strongly.
Value investing has long been out of favor in US stocks and last quarter was no different, as an index of beaten-down shares badly trailed the broader market’s furious rally.
Wells Fargo & Co. is ramping up buying top-rated collateralized loan obligations, after largely staying away from the $1.3 trillion market following interest rate hikes in 2022, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Some say private credit hasn’t been tested. We disagree…and stress can sharpen the senses.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8. This was consistent with the forecast and moves the index back into expansion territory after one month of contraction.
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 29th consecutive month of expansion but was a slight slow down from May's 53.7 reading.
With mortgage rates still near 7%, even relatively wealthy households are choosing to rent rather than buy, and it’s easy to understand why.
Proposed regulatory changes involving the Supplementary Leverage Ratio may have benefits for both large banks and the Treasury market.
Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.
We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.
It has been over six months since the FOMC has made a change to the Fed Funds rate. While the debate continues as to when the next cut will be, market consensus (per Bloomberg calculations) is currently for a 25 basis point cut in September.
With the first half of 2025 in the books, it’s been a very interesting six months — emphasis on “V” because the S&P 500 saw a nice V-shaped formation following the April sell-off. As markets always reveal, interesting times call for interesting ETF trends to follow.
In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.
As direct lending matures and other private credit areas expand, active investors can apply relative value strategies across sectors – and even entire markets – to pursue enhanced outcomes.
For sophisticated investors, this technical shift marks a subtle but powerful pivot in monetary mechanics. It could create demand for Treasuries, improve market liquidity, and push yields lower at a time when the economy is slowing.
With the market roughly at the midpoint for 2025, investors and advisors are still assessing how changing macroeconomic conditions could affect their fixed income portfolio.
Margin loan recommendations are often presented by brokers as tax-savvy strategies that allow clients to access “tax-free” cash while keeping their portfolios intact. In many cases, however, the math benefits the advisor more than the investor.
US lenders are on a tear and hedge funds are snapping up shares at a furious pace, underscoring Wall Street’s increasing conviction that their record-breaking rally has more room to run.
U.S. manufacturing expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June, with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI reaching a three-year high of 52.9. This was higher than the forecast of 52.0. However, tariffs continued to affect the sector, leading to increased inventory buildup and a sharp acceleration in inflation.
Growth is expected to decelerate, but not come crashing down.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
The United States’ tariff announcement on April 2, 2025, created significant market volatility, as the tariffs were perceived as higher, broader, and more punitive than expected, and the implementation sooner.
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
For years, Americans have lamented that rising housing prices and elevated mortgage rates have made homeownership unaffordable for too many first-time homebuyers, while prompting many homeowners to stay put rather than sell.
One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.%MCEPASTEBIN%
The S&P 500 Index just rallied back to all-time highs, brushing off the April tariff shock, the conflict with Iran and the insidious and persistent increase in US continuing jobless claims.
The Fed’s credibility rests not on never being wrong, but on being adaptive and forward-looking. Inflation has cooled, wage growth has moderated, and economic momentum is slowing. Now is the time for the Fed to focus not on headline fears, but on real-time data.
We continue to suggest an "up in quality" fixed income bias for the short run, but investors can still consider some of the riskier parts of the fixed income market in moderation.
Until recently, commercial real estate appeared poised for a long-awaited rebound. However, 2025 has revealed a new reality: Uncertainty has become structural.
It’s often said there are only two certainties in life: death and taxes. However, the tax landscape may become somewhat murkier, as the recently passed U.S. House budget bill may potentially lead to some non-U.S. investors paying more taxes than previously anticipated.
Chuck Carnevale provides an update on Medical Properties Trust (MPW), a hospital real estate investment trust (REIT) he has held for several years.
The Federal Reserve is aiming to lessen the costly fluctuations in bank capital demands created by its annual stress tests. But big lenders are pushing for more relief while the central bank is politically weakened and some board members seem keen to please the White House.
The US apartment-building boom that began about a decade ago appears to have ended last year, but it did so with a bang. It was the biggest year for apartment completions since 1986 and the biggest year ever for apartments in large buildings — that is, those with 30 to 49 and 50 or more units.
There’s plenty of talk about how India’s 600-million-strong workforce gives it a unique edge in the US-China spat over trade and technology.
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was down 0.60% month-over-month, marking the first monthly decline since January 2022. When adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was down 0.73%.
US stocks climbed Thursday, ending the day on the cusp of a record as optimism around potential rate cuts stoked risk-on sentiment across financial markets.
Today’s investment landscape, shaped by persistently above-target inflation, structurally higher debt and deficits, and reduced global dollar recycling into US financial markets, has contributed to elevated market volatility alongside historically high policy uncertainty.
Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida explains where yields may be headed, as well as positioning considerations for the long-run by charting the relationship between r* and term premium.
Existing home sales unexpectedly inched up in May. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 0.8% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million units.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index rose more than expected in May, coming in at 72.6. This marks a 1.8% increase from April, higher than the anticipated 0.2% rise, and a 1.1% increase from one year ago.
The dollar fell and US Treasuries rallied after a report that President Donald Trump is considering naming Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s successor well before the incumbent’s term is scheduled to end next May.
It wasn’t too long ago that you could confidently proclaim that most of the Street was ebullient, maybe even wildly so, with respect to the greenback’s prospects.
Target-date fund glide paths can be important tools for retirement planning. Advisors should focus on assumptions, transparency, and outcomes to ensure they align with participants' needs.
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
It’s said nothing in life is certain save death and taxes. There is also certainly an increase in investors’ appetites for nontraditional instruments like hedge funds as their wealth grows.
The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) is the interest rate banks charge each other to borrow money overnight. It's set by the FOMC and is one of the Federal Reserve's primary tools to implement monetary policy and is a key driver of economic activity. This video examines the Federal Funds Rate and reviews the Fed's latest interest rate meeting.
Why are we still making high-stakes economic policy based on lagging surveys and statistical approximations? The answer lies in a system that hasn't kept pace with modern realities.
While both valuation and technical factors suggest to us that the dollar may continue to weaken in the near-term, we would caution investors against reading too much concerning the US’ long-term economic stability into further dollar weakness.
New home sales retreated in May, experiencing their largest monthly decline in nearly three years. Meanwhile the median price for a new home remained above $400,000 for a sixth straight month.
The United Arab Emirates has managed to thrive during global instability, drawing capital during the Arab Spring, opening up quickly during the pandemic and attracting Russian money after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Inflation's trend has been favorable this year, but a growing conflict in Iran—combined with already-imposed tariffs—might put upward pressure in prices later this year.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The recent decline in the dollar relative to other currencies is well within historical norms. Notably, previous declines were much larger without the “fear-mongering” from the “experts of doom.”
CEFs stand out due to their fixed capital structure, allowing portfolio managers to focus on long-term investment strategies without the need to manage daily inflows and outflows.
Home prices declined in April as the benchmark national index fell for a second straight month. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% decrease month-over-month and a 2.7% increase year-over-year. This marks the third straight month of year-over-year declines and is the smallest annual gain since August 2023. After adjusting for inflation, the monthly change fell to -0.8% and annual change fell to -1.5%.
If we’ve seen the worst of the oil price shock from the Israel-Iran conflict, then another ostensible impediment to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may have just disappeared.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) fell to 434.9 in April, the first monthly decline since August 2022. U.S. house prices were down 0.4% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.1% growth, and up 3.0% from one year ago.
Portfolio Managers John Kerschner and John Lloyd and Client Portfolio Manager Steve Preikschat investigate the case for multisector bond funds as a core fixed income allocation.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman warned the current approach to leverage ratio requirements has led to unintended consequences in the market while adding she could support lowering interest rates as soon as July.
When investors approach the financial markets, there’s a tendency to imagine that conditions can be judged as favorable or unfavorable based on one single measure or another. The fact is that market conditions at any moment in time are a composite of interdependent forces.
The yield curve for U.S. government bonds is currently very unusual — it’s U-shaped. In addition to the changes in shape, also note the level of interest rates.
While the bond market is in general pretty efficient in its pricing, there may be times when it can be significantly out of line with investor expectations. At such moments, investors should be well-rewarded for making the effort to decode what the bond market is saying.
Wall Street has a new favorite investor. They’re young, they’re affluent and they’re skeptical that traditional markets can deliver wealth over the long haul. Shaped by financial crises and fueled by tech optimism, this well-heeled class of Millennials and Gen Z are moving their money into the buzzy world of alternative assets.
The dollar rose to the highest level in nearly a month as US strikes on Iran spurred demand for the haven currency while underscoring the risks posed by climbing oil prices.
This week the news is about the Israel-Iran conflict. It’s terrifyingly real for those in the crossfire, while we who are safe naturally wonder what it means for us. As investors, we think about the economic and market effects. But are we seeing signal or noise?
Last week's economic data painted a picture of broad cooling across several sectors, with consumers pulling back significantly on spending.
Mid-2025 is approaching, and exchange traded fund demand continues its robust growth. Last year was a landmark year for the ETF industry, with industry net inflows for the first time surpassing $1 trillion and one ETF exceeding $100 billion in net inflows.
Powell & Company at the Federal Reserve sees an elevated stagflation threat. In response, they decided to do nothing.
While stocks experienced a roller-coaster ride powered by policy uncertainty, fixed income generally held up well despite the broader market turbulence. Will it be the same story in the second half? Let’s take a closer look.
How big data, AI and the human element can combine to better pursue consistent alpha.
CEO Ali Dibadj provides an update on the three macro drivers we believe will shape markets in the second half of 2025 and how Janus Henderson is helping clients position for a brighter investment future.
New strategies, shifting flows, and innovative technologies are driving a more dynamic and diversified marketplace in fixed income ETFs.
The overall U.S. equity market has fully recovered from its April lows, landing in an essentially flat position as of 5/31/2025. However, it’s been a wild ride for many investors.
Real Estate
No Rate Cut for You…At Least Not Yet
One of the more storied headlines this year has been President Trump’s disappointment with the Fed for not cutting rates. We should all know by now that the President cannot fire a Fed Chair simply because he/she is not lowering interest rates to their liking.
At the Midway Point: Returning to the Fundamentals
Liberation Day seems like a lifetime ago. But the 90-day pause is almost over, and—thus far—there are few deals that have been consummated.
Emerging Markets Insights: Seeking Clarity on Tariffs
In this month’s issue, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity explains how markets in many regions are weathering US policy uncertainty and offers an upbeat assessment of Vietnam after a recent research visit.
Charting Commodity Markets
In the weeks leading up to last month’s Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, oil prices climbed – not due to actual supply disruptions, but in response to a geopolitical risk premium.
Private Equity Halftime Report: Key Trends for Advisors
Looking at the first half of 2025 reveals a nuanced landscape for private equity (PE) and principal investors.
The Long View: Push-pull
ClearBridge Investments believes positive forces from One Big Beautiful Bill Act passage and future interest rate cuts should soon outweigh negative forces of tariff actions.
Breaking Down the Regulatory Requirements for Subscription Services
If you're thinking about adding subscription services to your financial planning practice, you're not alone. More advisors are moving beyond the traditional AUM model to offer monthly subscription plans, and for good reason.
2025 Market Review & Mid-Year Market Outlook: Resilience in the Face of Uncertainty
Markets rebounded sharply in 2Q 2025 following April’s tariff-driven selloff. Our mid-year market outlook breaks down the recovery, Fed policy, and where to invest next.
Are Interest Rates Too High?
Are interest rates too high? A lot of people think they are, and a growing chorus of voices is calling on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut rates.
Outperformance in Extraordinary Times
How the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund’s strategy helped it achieve outperformance during a historic period for global markets.
Equities Enter Slightly Calmer Waters
We upgrade equities to neutral from underweight as falling interest rates and improving economic conditions in emerging markets offset uncertainty over US tariff policies.
Wall Street Bank Stocks’ Furious Rally Spurs HSBC Downgrades
HSBC is turning cautious on three of the biggest US bank stocks following a record rally that’s brought the group within shouting distance of an all-time high.
2Q Earnings: The Beat Goes On?
The earnings bar is fairly low for the second quarter, setting companies up for a potential easy jump—but there will likely be more focus on forward guidance.
Behind the Meter Solutions Investing Guide
In part 2 of this series, this article looks past the data center operators and focuses on the natural gas pipelines and the manufacturers of natural gas power plant equipment.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: July 3, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended July 3, 2025 at 4.35%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.88% and the 30-year note ended at 4.86%.
The Bull Market is Alive and Well
The bull market is alive and well, even amid widespread talk of the “death of U.S. exceptionalism.
Need Income? Europe’s Commercial Real Estate Debt is Worth a Look
Investors looking for cash flow from commercial real estate may want to check out the debt side.
Quantstreet July 2025 Letter: Geopolitics and Markets
After a tumultuous few months, June of 2025 saw a strong rally which took global markets to (or close to) new highs. The rally was broad-based, with international and U.S. markets all up strongly.
Stock Pickers Shine, Sniffing Out Value During Market Tumult
Value investing has long been out of favor in US stocks and last quarter was no different, as an index of beaten-down shares badly trailed the broader market’s furious rally.
Wells Fargo to Ramp Up Buying CLOs After Three-Year Retreat
Wells Fargo & Co. is ramping up buying top-rated collateralized loan obligations, after largely staying away from the $1.3 trillion market following interest rate hikes in 2022, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Private Credit Outlook: Five Lessons Learned
Some say private credit hasn’t been tested. We disagree…and stress can sharpen the senses.
ISM Services PMI Returns to Expansion Territory in June
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8. This was consistent with the forecast and moves the index back into expansion territory after one month of contraction.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Sustained in June
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 29th consecutive month of expansion but was a slight slow down from May's 53.7 reading.
Today’s Housing Math Favors Buying — Even in Austin
With mortgage rates still near 7%, even relatively wealthy households are choosing to rent rather than buy, and it’s easy to understand why.
Under the Macroscope: Why Cutting the SLR Matters
Proposed regulatory changes involving the Supplementary Leverage Ratio may have benefits for both large banks and the Treasury market.
Equity Markets Found Traction in June
Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.
Midyear Fixed Income Outlook: Starting Yields Matter Amid Uncertainty
We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.
A Lesson From Recent History
It has been over six months since the FOMC has made a change to the Fed Funds rate. While the debate continues as to when the next cut will be, market consensus (per Bloomberg calculations) is currently for a 25 basis point cut in September.
VOO Still Heavyweight ETF Champ & Other 1st Half Trends
With the first half of 2025 in the books, it’s been a very interesting six months — emphasis on “V” because the S&P 500 saw a nice V-shaped formation following the April sell-off. As markets always reveal, interesting times call for interesting ETF trends to follow.
Balancing Act: Building Resilient Portfolios in a Changing Landscape
In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.
Active Management Comes for Private Credit
As direct lending matures and other private credit areas expand, active investors can apply relative value strategies across sectors – and even entire markets – to pursue enhanced outcomes.
SLR: Could It End The Bond Bear Market
For sophisticated investors, this technical shift marks a subtle but powerful pivot in monetary mechanics. It could create demand for Treasuries, improve market liquidity, and push yields lower at a time when the economy is slowing.
Invesco’s Danfield on Midyear Fixed Income Outlook
With the market roughly at the midpoint for 2025, investors and advisors are still assessing how changing macroeconomic conditions could affect their fixed income portfolio.
Beware of Borrowing That Helps Your Advisor, Not You
Margin loan recommendations are often presented by brokers as tax-savvy strategies that allow clients to access “tax-free” cash while keeping their portfolios intact. In many cases, however, the math benefits the advisor more than the investor.
Hedge Funds Pile In as Big US Banks Soar to All-Time Highs
US lenders are on a tear and hedge funds are snapping up shares at a furious pace, underscoring Wall Street’s increasing conviction that their record-breaking rally has more room to run.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Highest Level in Three Years
U.S. manufacturing expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June, with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI reaching a three-year high of 52.9. This was higher than the forecast of 52.0. However, tariffs continued to affect the sector, leading to increased inventory buildup and a sharp acceleration in inflation.
Simmering Down
Growth is expected to decelerate, but not come crashing down.
Not a Good Report on Personal Income and Spending in May
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Tariffs Rattle Markets—But EM Debt Endures
The United States’ tariff announcement on April 2, 2025, created significant market volatility, as the tariffs were perceived as higher, broader, and more punitive than expected, and the implementation sooner.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: June 2025
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Could Housing Finally Start to Become More Affordable?
For years, Americans have lamented that rising housing prices and elevated mortgage rates have made homeownership unaffordable for too many first-time homebuyers, while prompting many homeowners to stay put rather than sell.
Monitoring Portfolio News Using AI
One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.%MCEPASTEBIN%
Stocks are Defying the Naysayers. They Can Keep Going.
The S&P 500 Index just rallied back to all-time highs, brushing off the April tariff shock, the conflict with Iran and the insidious and persistent increase in US continuing jobless claims.
The Fed’s “Transitory” Mistake Is Affecting Its Outlook
The Fed’s credibility rests not on never being wrong, but on being adaptive and forward-looking. Inflation has cooled, wage growth has moderated, and economic momentum is slowing. Now is the time for the Fed to focus not on headline fears, but on real-time data.
Corporate Bonds: Mid-Year 2025 Outlook
We continue to suggest an "up in quality" fixed income bias for the short run, but investors can still consider some of the riskier parts of the fixed income market in moderation.
Bend, Not Break: Investing in Real Estate Amid Economic Uncertainty
Until recently, commercial real estate appeared poised for a long-awaited rebound. However, 2025 has revealed a new reality: Uncertainty has become structural.
Meet the 899-Ton Elephant in U.S. Tax Reform
It’s often said there are only two certainties in life: death and taxes. However, the tax landscape may become somewhat murkier, as the recently passed U.S. House budget bill may potentially lead to some non-U.S. investors paying more taxes than previously anticipated.
Medical Properties Trust: Final Update
Chuck Carnevale provides an update on Medical Properties Trust (MPW), a hospital real estate investment trust (REIT) he has held for several years.
How to Avoid Bank Safety’s Death by Many Cuts
The Federal Reserve is aiming to lessen the costly fluctuations in bank capital demands created by its annual stress tests. But big lenders are pushing for more relief while the central bank is politically weakened and some board members seem keen to please the White House.
How Small Apartments in Big Buildings Became the US Norm
The US apartment-building boom that began about a decade ago appears to have ended last year, but it did so with a bang. It was the biggest year for apartment completions since 1986 and the biggest year ever for apartments in large buildings — that is, those with 30 to 49 and 50 or more units.
India’s Banks Will Lend. Will Tycoons Borrow?
There’s plenty of talk about how India’s 600-million-strong workforce gives it a unique edge in the US-China spat over trade and technology.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down 0.7% in May
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was down 0.60% month-over-month, marking the first monthly decline since January 2022. When adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was down 0.73%.
S&P 500 Extends Rally, Closing Just Short of Its All-Time High
US stocks climbed Thursday, ending the day on the cusp of a record as optimism around potential rate cuts stoked risk-on sentiment across financial markets.
A Bond Alternative for the New Era of Investing
Today’s investment landscape, shaped by persistently above-target inflation, structurally higher debt and deficits, and reduced global dollar recycling into US financial markets, has contributed to elevated market volatility alongside historically high policy uncertainty.
Charting the Neutral Rate
Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida explains where yields may be headed, as well as positioning considerations for the long-run by charting the relationship between r* and term premium.
Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Inch Up in May
Existing home sales unexpectedly inched up in May. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 0.8% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million units.
Pending Home Sales Up 1.8% in May, Higher Than Expected
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index rose more than expected in May, coming in at 72.6. This marks a 1.8% increase from April, higher than the anticipated 0.2% rise, and a 1.1% increase from one year ago.
Treasuries Rally, Dollar Slumps as Trump Eyes Powell Successor
The dollar fell and US Treasuries rallied after a report that President Donald Trump is considering naming Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s successor well before the incumbent’s term is scheduled to end next May.
A Sentiment Shift Favors Dollar Bulls
It wasn’t too long ago that you could confidently proclaim that most of the Street was ebullient, maybe even wildly so, with respect to the greenback’s prospects.
Why Glide Path Selection Deserves More Attention in Target-Date Fund Evaluation
Target-date fund glide paths can be important tools for retirement planning. Advisors should focus on assumptions, transparency, and outcomes to ensure they align with participants' needs.
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: June 18, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
PPLI and PPVA: Vehicles for tax-efficient growth
It’s said nothing in life is certain save death and taxes. There is also certainly an increase in investors’ appetites for nontraditional instruments like hedge funds as their wealth grows.
The Fed's Interest Rate Decision: June 18, 2025
The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) is the interest rate banks charge each other to borrow money overnight. It's set by the FOMC and is one of the Federal Reserve's primary tools to implement monetary policy and is a key driver of economic activity. This video examines the Federal Funds Rate and reviews the Fed's latest interest rate meeting.
The Stone Age of Economic Reporting: Skip the Archaic Methodologies When Assessing the Market
Why are we still making high-stakes economic policy based on lagging surveys and statistical approximations? The answer lies in a system that hasn't kept pace with modern realities.
‘King Dollar’ Challenged…But Not Vanquished: Still No Substitute for the World’s Reserve Currency
While both valuation and technical factors suggest to us that the dollar may continue to weaken in the near-term, we would caution investors against reading too much concerning the US’ long-term economic stability into further dollar weakness.
New Home Sales Retreat to 7-Month Low
New home sales retreated in May, experiencing their largest monthly decline in nearly three years. Meanwhile the median price for a new home remained above $400,000 for a sixth straight month.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi’s Haven Status Tested by Mideast Crisis
The United Arab Emirates has managed to thrive during global instability, drawing capital during the Arab Spring, opening up quickly during the pandemic and attracting Russian money after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
What's Going On…With Inflation
Inflation's trend has been favorable this year, but a growing conflict in Iran—combined with already-imposed tariffs—might put upward pressure in prices later this year.
Fixed Income Focus
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The Dollar’s Death Is Greatly Exaggerated
The recent decline in the dollar relative to other currencies is well within historical norms. Notably, previous declines were much larger without the “fear-mongering” from the “experts of doom.”
Unlocking Investment Opportunities in Closed-End Funds
CEFs stand out due to their fixed capital structure, allowing portfolio managers to focus on long-term investment strategies without the need to manage daily inflows and outflows.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Annual Gains Continue to Slow
Home prices declined in April as the benchmark national index fell for a second straight month. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% decrease month-over-month and a 2.7% increase year-over-year. This marks the third straight month of year-over-year declines and is the smallest annual gain since August 2023. After adjusting for inflation, the monthly change fell to -0.8% and annual change fell to -1.5%.
The Bernanke Consensus on Oil Shocks is Truer Than Ever
If we’ve seen the worst of the oil price shock from the Israel-Iran conflict, then another ostensible impediment to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may have just disappeared.
FHFA House Price Index Down 0.4% in April
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) fell to 434.9 in April, the first monthly decline since August 2022. U.S. house prices were down 0.4% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.1% growth, and up 3.0% from one year ago.
The Top Reason to Consider a Multisector Fund for a Core Bond Allocation
Portfolio Managers John Kerschner and John Lloyd and Client Portfolio Manager Steve Preikschat investigate the case for multisector bond funds as a core fixed income allocation.
Fed’s Bowman Says ‘Time Has Come’ to Revisit Key Capital Buffer
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman warned the current approach to leverage ratio requirements has led to unintended consequences in the market while adding she could support lowering interest rates as soon as July.
The Bubble – Contains the Collapse – Contains the Resurgence
When investors approach the financial markets, there’s a tendency to imagine that conditions can be judged as favorable or unfavorable based on one single measure or another. The fact is that market conditions at any moment in time are a composite of interdependent forces.
The Shape Shifting U.S. Government Bond Yield Curve
The yield curve for U.S. government bonds is currently very unusual — it’s U-shaped. In addition to the changes in shape, also note the level of interest rates.
Decoding the Bond Market
While the bond market is in general pretty efficient in its pricing, there may be times when it can be significantly out of line with investor expectations. At such moments, investors should be well-rewarded for making the effort to decode what the bond market is saying.
Young Investor Demand for Alternative Assets Is Reshaping Wall Street's Playbook
Wall Street has a new favorite investor. They’re young, they’re affluent and they’re skeptical that traditional markets can deliver wealth over the long haul. Shaped by financial crises and fueled by tech optimism, this well-heeled class of Millennials and Gen Z are moving their money into the buzzy world of alternative assets.
Dollar Surges as Mideast Escalation Spurs Inflation Risk
The dollar rose to the highest level in nearly a month as US strikes on Iran spurred demand for the haven currency while underscoring the risks posed by climbing oil prices.
Strategic Investment Conclusions
This week the news is about the Israel-Iran conflict. It’s terrifyingly real for those in the crossfire, while we who are safe naturally wonder what it means for us. As investors, we think about the economic and market effects. But are we seeing signal or noise?
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Spending Slowdown & Industrial Dip
Last week's economic data painted a picture of broad cooling across several sectors, with consumers pulling back significantly on spending.
ETF Records Were Made to Be Broken
Mid-2025 is approaching, and exchange traded fund demand continues its robust growth. Last year was a landmark year for the ETF industry, with industry net inflows for the first time surpassing $1 trillion and one ETF exceeding $100 billion in net inflows.
Fed Holds Rates Steady as Stagflation Worries Mount
Powell & Company at the Federal Reserve sees an elevated stagflation threat. In response, they decided to do nothing.
2025 Midyear Outlook: For Fixed Income, Slow and Steady Wins the Race
While stocks experienced a roller-coaster ride powered by policy uncertainty, fixed income generally held up well despite the broader market turbulence. Will it be the same story in the second half? Let’s take a closer look.
Alpha Reimagined
How big data, AI and the human element can combine to better pursue consistent alpha.
Macro Drivers: Positioning for 2025’s Geopolitical Realignment
CEO Ali Dibadj provides an update on the three macro drivers we believe will shape markets in the second half of 2025 and how Janus Henderson is helping clients position for a brighter investment future.
5 Themes Defining Bond ETF Investing Today
New strategies, shifting flows, and innovative technologies are driving a more dynamic and diversified marketplace in fixed income ETFs.
The Case for Going Global Now
The overall U.S. equity market has fully recovered from its April lows, landing in an essentially flat position as of 5/31/2025. However, it’s been a wild ride for many investors.