July Review: Markets Navigate US-Iran Tensions, Sector Rotation and Policy Uncertainty

July was an eventful month for both domestic and international markets, with US-Iran tensions flaring up, increasing energy prices and changing investor expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates. Investors turned away from AI-themed stocks amid concerns over the elevated valuations and capital spending, causing technology sectors to lag while energy, financials and real estate surged ahead.

The S&P 500 declined -0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost -3.2%, reflecting weakness among several of the market’s largest growth companies. Small-cap stocks also moved lower, with the Russell 2000 declining -3.1% over the period.

According to Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam, “From geopolitical tensions and Fed decisions to inflation reports and tariff uncertainty, investors have had no shortage of headlines to navigate. Yet the market’s resilience reinforces a timeless lesson. While macro events can drive short-term sentiment, growth, earnings and fundamentals ultimately drive long-term returns. The encouraging news is that earnings continue to grow at a double-digit pace, extending a remarkable streak of corporate profit growth, while the US economy remains resilient. In the end, fundamentals matter most."

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Job growth slowed while the unemployment rate held steady throughout the month. Inflation improved slightly, aided by falling energy prices. Consumer spending was resilient, and housing activity showed modest improvement.

This week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting saw the Fed hold interest rates steady for now, with three dissenting members in favor of a hike. Treasury yields had pushed higher leading into the meeting, which didn’t offer much clarity. Chair Kevin Warsh left all possibilities open and dependent on data, likely spurring some of the subsequent volatility.

We’ll dive into more details below, but first, let’s look at how July finished.

Healthy consolidation within a churning market

Since its last major surge in March, the tech sector has taken a bit of a breather. But performance in sectors like health care, industrials and financials have strengthened the overall market and kept it pushing sideways even as the momentum of AI-driven tech stocks begins to lessen. Performance being spread out to include companies beyond mega-cap tech stocks represents a positive trend and reinforces the resilience of the market at large.

Trade policy made headlines

The Trump administration announced 50% tariffs using Section 338 on a targeted list of Canadian goods in response to alleged discrimination in autos, dairy and alcohol. In addition, Section 301 forced labor tariffs were finalized on imports from roughly 60 different global partners in an effort to replace the IEEPA reciprocal tariffs that had been previously stricken down by the Supreme Court.

Treasury yields climbed

Oil prices climbed with renewed hostilities in the Middle East. Treasury yields followed suit, as rising oil prices have proven a reliable driver of headline inflation. Treasury yields across most of the curve ranged 16 to 20 basis points higher than when the month began.

Consumer sentiment on shaky ground

Although the final reading of the Consumer Sentiment Index came in better than expected, the index remained close to all-time lows, a reminder that consumers are still downbeat about the economy’s performance. Although inflation expectations softening should have a positive impact, the impact that the war with Iran has on energy prices and interest rates is likely to result in a downward revision.

Multiple conflicts moving commodity prices

The US-Iran conflict wasn’t the only source of global turmoil to impact commodities this past month. Russia’s war with Ukraine is in its fifth year, and Ukraine is increasingly successful in targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure as well as cargo ships. Russia’s exports of fuel and agricultural products are facing disruptions, which raises the risk of food scarcity in parts of the Middle East and Africa. Fertilizer supply has also been curtailed by both conflicts.

Russia’s energy sector under attack

Stemming partly from advances in drone technology and capabilities, Ukraine has become quite successful in targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure as they continue fighting their war, significantly crippling refining capacity. With Europe adding another round of sanctions against Russia, it’s speculated that the US may begin to allow more Russian oil into global markets.

The bottom line

A host of external factors, including geopolitical developments, inflation readings, tariff concerns and uncertainty surrounding Fed policy, kept investors on their toes in July. But market resilience continues to demonstrate that temporary shifts in sentiment don’t negate the positive effects of longer-term drivers. The US economy continues to show durability and, in the long run, strong fundamentals are on track to prevail.

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Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Raymond James Chief Investment Officer and are subject to change. There is no assurance the trends mentioned will continue or that the forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. Diversification does not guarantee a profit nor protect against loss.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia and Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged index of small-cap securities. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. An investment cannot be made in these indexes. The performance mentioned does not include fees and charges, which would reduce an investor’s returns.

Companies engaged in business related to a specific sector, including the technology sector, are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based upon market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. Income from municipal bonds is not subject to federal income taxation; however, it may be subject to state and local taxes and, for certain investors, to the alternative minimum tax. Income from taxable municipal bonds is subject to federal income taxation, and it may be subject to state and local taxes.

Investing in oil or the energy sector involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. Investing in small-cap stocks generally involves greater risks, and therefore, may not be appropriate for every investor. The prices of small company stocks may be subject to more volatility than those of large company stocks. International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets.

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