As investor interest in Anthropic’s upcoming IPO grows, ETFs are finding new ways to offer exposure to private companies through derivatives tied to perpetual futures. Recent regulatory developments could accelerate the use of these instruments across the ETF industry, but they also introduce new risks and complexities. This note explores how ETF issuers are accessing Anthropic including derivatives using perpetual futures pricing and a deeper look at potential benefits of perpetual futures for ETF issuers.
Key Takeaways:
- ETFs are using various methods to provide pre-IPO exposure to Anthropic including direct ownership, SPVs, and derivatives.
- Perpetual futures offer more frequent price discovery, but their prices can diverge significantly from underlying company valuations.
- Regulatory developments could expand perpetual futures use cases in ETFs but the regulatory environment still remains uncertain.
Anthropic Could Provide a More Direct Way to Capture the AI story
Anthropic’s upcoming IPO is drawing significant investor attention as the artificial intelligence (AI) developer demonstrates rapid top-line growth. In its November 2 amended S-1 filing, Anthropic disclosed 3Q revenue of $17.0 billion, up sharply compared with $1.4 billion a year earlier. The company also reported an operating loss of $567 million and approximately $895 billion in future commitments, primarily related to computing and infrastructure.
Much of this excitement stems from the relative scarcity of pure-play AI opportunities in public equity markets today. Most investors currently access generative AI indirectly through megacap tech conglomerates like Microsoft and Alphabet or semiconductor providers like NVIDIA, where AI is just one component of a broader business. Anthropic represents a targeted play on large language models (LLMs) and enterprise software, providing the concentrated thematic exposure that many growth investors seek.
While investors will soon have the opportunity to purchase Anthropic shares directly if its IPO proceeds, several ETFs have already begun offering exposure to the company through private investments and derivatives. Since my last research note on Anthropic exposure, a new group of funds have emerged now utilizing total return swaps tied to perpetual futures markets to capture pre-IPO price trends without holding underlying shares.
ETFs Are Finding New Ways to Access Private Companies
Traditionally, investors looking for exposure to private companies have needed direct access to funding rounds or secondary transactions. A few ETFs have successfully obtained this exposure, including the KraneShares Public-Private AI & Technology ETF (AGIX), which participated directly in Anthropic’s private funding round in February 2025.
Other funds use special purpose vehicles (SPVs), which hold private company shares on behalf of investors. For example, the Tema Photonics & Optical ETF (LAZR) holds Anthropic Series F preferred shares through an SPV. In October, Tema announced that it had increased its Anthropic allocation to 10.5% and was valuing the position at its $1.4 trillion valuation until the IPO. While SPVs provide genuine equity exposure, private shares held in SPVs are typically marked at static funding round values rather than adjusting daily to reflect shifting valuations.
Other ETFs take a different approach by using derivatives rather than purchasing private shares. Several ETFs track the MANGOS companies — an AI-focused group including Microsoft (MSFT), Anthropic (private), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), OpenAI (private), and Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX). The Corgi MANGOS ETF (MN), for example, uses total return swaps whose reference prices are derived from perpetual futures markets. To clarify, this means they do not hold perpetual futures directly.
Similarly, the Yorkville America MANGOS Plus Index ETF (FRUT) uses swaps referencing index components whose pricing can incorporate private funding rounds, secondary transactions, and pre-IPO derivatives markets, including perpetual futures. Meanwhile, the Leverage Shares MANGOS ETF (MGOL) has reported swaps referencing tokenized stock instruments associated with Anthropic and OpenAI.
These approaches offer investors access to companies that would otherwise be difficult to invest in through traditional ETFs. However, the distinction between owning private shares and obtaining synthetic exposure becomes important when evaluating how these investments are priced.
Perpetual Futures Offer Price Discovery, But With Limitations
Perpetual futures are derivative contracts that allow investors to speculate on the price of an asset without owning it. Unlike traditional futures contracts, perpetual futures have no expiration date, allowing investors to maintain exposure without periodically rolling into new contracts. Instead, these futures generally rely on periodic funding payments between long and short positions to help keep futures prices aligned with their reference markets.
Perpetual futures have become especially popular in cryptocurrency markets, where investors can trade contracts referencing assets like bitcoin. More recently, similar markets have emerged for equities, commodities, and even private companies. For ETF issuers, these instruments offer a potential way to access assets that may be difficult or expensive to purchase directly — like Anthropic.
However, using perpetual futures to price private companies can be significantly different than using them for publicly traded assets. When a derivative references a publicly traded stock, investors can generally buy or sell the underlying shares to take advantage of pricing differences, helping keep the derivative’s price aligned with the stock. That mechanism is potentially much weaker for private companies like Anthropic because its shares are not traded publicly.
As a result, the perpetual futures price may reflect what investors expect Anthropic to be worth rather than the value established in a private funding round. Those expectations can change as new information becomes available, potentially creating substantial differences between perpetual futures prices, private market valuations, and eventual IPO prices. However, the more frequent and transparent price discovery may be arguably more useful than direct private company holdings which are more infrequently valued.
Hyperliquid and HYPE Token Market Growth
Hyperliquid has benefited from growing interest in perpetual futures, with trading volume reaching $2.9 trillion in 2025, according to a report by Grayscale. Trading activity generates fees that help fund HYPE token buybacks, creating a direct connection between platform usage and token demand, although the token’s price is also influenced by broader market conditions. Investor interest has also extended to ETFs, with the 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) and Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP) launching in May, followed by the Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (HYPG) in June. These funds provide exposure to HYPE rather than investing directly in perpetual futures.
Perpetual Futures Move Toward U.S. Regulatory Oversight
Regulatory developments suggest that perpetual futures could eventually become more widely available in the United States, which means we may potentially see these directly held by ETFs. In May 2026, the CFTC approved Kalshi’s bitcoin perpetual futures contract, followed by precious metals gold and silver in September. On November 3, the SEC also approved single stock perpetual futures and those immediately went live on Kalshi the same day.
On October 29, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced a partnership with Trade[XYZ], a provider of perpetual derivatives markets built on the Hyperliquid platform. The companies intend to establish a regulated U.S. market and clearing structure for perpetual futures across cryptocurrencies, equities, commodities, foreign exchange, and other assets (assuming regulation allows). Kalshi’s current list of perpetual futures may be a potential indicator of the type of perpetual futures we could see from this platform.
ICE’s involvement is significant because it could help bring perpetual futures beyond the cryptocurrency-focused or prediction market platforms where they first gained popularity. A regulated marketplace with more established trading and clearing infrastructure could eventually make these instruments more accessible to traditional financial institutions, including ETF issuers.
What Perpetual Futures Could Mean for ETFs
There are several potential benefits that perpetual futures could provide for ETFs. Perpetual futures could provide exposure to certain markets without requiring direct ownership of the underlying assets, while eliminating the roll costs associated with traditional futures strategies.
However, the elimination of contract rolls does not eliminate costs completely. Funding payments can still affect returns, and these costs may vary significantly. And as stated earlier, the presence of a continuously traded futures contract does not guarantee that its price accurately reflects the value of an underlying private company.
There are also regulatory obstacles, which make regulated perpetual futures on private companies more complicated than those referencing established public stocks. Perpetual futures, even on publicly traded investments, have also attracted criticism because their use of leverage can encourage speculative trading and amplify potential losses. Some have compared these products to gambling rather than traditional investing. ETFs that incorporate perpetual futures could attract additional regulatory scrutiny, particularly as the SEC continues evaluating novel ETFs that invest in innovative asset classes or use unconventional investment strategies.
As a result, CFTC approval of a perpetual futures contract would not automatically guarantee that an ETF could use it without further regulatory considerations. For example, sports futures ETFs are still pending even though the underlying futures have been approved (see my latest research note on novel ETFs).
Bottom Line:
ETF issuers are getting ahead of the Anthropic IPO, and some are even using perpetual futures as a tool. These instruments offer potential advantages in accessing difficult to reach markets and maintaining exposure without traditional futures rolls, but they also introduce new risks and complexity.
Originally posted on ETF Trends
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