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Slow Summer Daze
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 8/18/16
The subdued performance of the U.S. economy in the second quarter planted doubts about the underlying fundamentals. Is activity going through seasonal doldrums, or is something more fundamental at play?

Global Economic Outlook - July 2016
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Victoria Marklew, Marshall Birkey, Ben Trinder, Brian Liebovich, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 8/3/16
In late June, the United Kingdom elected to initiate the process of leaving the European Union. In the immediate aftermath of the referendum, pessimists were predicting significant collateral damage to global markets and global economic growth.

Man vs. Debt
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/31/16
Whether for religious or cultural reasons, an aversion to indebtedness has deep roots in many parts of the world. And yet the ability for savers to lend their money to others and earn interest in return is at the core of modern financial systems.

The Perils of Populism
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/23/16
Populism is not new, and its current incarnation is certainly not its most extreme expression. Wikipedia describes populism as “a political position which holds that the virtuous citizens are being mistreated by a small circle of elites...the elites are depicted as trampling in illegitimate fashion upon the rights, values and voice of the people.”

The Helicopters Have Arrived
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/16/16
Japan was the darling of the global economy thirty years ago. Its industry was ascendant, its products were viewed as best-in-class, its banks occupied the top ten places on the global list and its management techniques were studied and emulated worldwide.

Will Brexit Be a Bother?
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 7/12/16
Last week, the United States celebrated 240 years of independence from the United Kingdom. While relations after the separation were initially complicated, the two countries have grown to become close allies.

Brexit Has Created a Run on U.S. Treasuries
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 7/11/16
The U.K. situation remains highly uncertain. Investors continue seeking the safety of government securities, but an increasing number of sovereign bonds around the world carry negative interest rates.

Separating the Signal from the Noise Around Brexit
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/3/16
Today, by contrast, we are overloaded with high-frequency communication. We have business networks, countless internet sites and social media all providing continuous news and opinion.

Reaction to the Brexit Vote
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/25/16
Some have described the Roman Empire as the first true European Union. Its modern-day successor now faces an existential challenge in the wake of The United Kingdom’s vote to take back some of its sovereignty.

Decision Day Nears for Britain
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/17/16
With the European Union (EU) referendum now less than a week away, it is difficult here in Britain to think about much else. Given market movements this week, it appears this is the case throughout much of the globe.

FOMC Preview: Resetting the Timeline
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 6/12/16
Without doubt, last Friday’s U.S. unemployment report initiated some substantial reconsideration within the halls of the Federal Reserve, scarcely a week before a critical policy meeting.

Weighing the Positives and the Negatives
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 6/9/16
Based on the data available, the second quarter appears to have started on strong footing after a soft performance in the first three months of the year.

Reflections from a Round-the-World Tour
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/4/16
How does a country achieve the benefits of association without ceding too much control? That seems to be a central question, from Washington to London to Hong Kong.

Compared With Other Countries, U.S. Health Care Looks Sick
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/27/16
Health care was a major campaign issue in the last four election cycles. It is too early in the game to determine whether health care becomes the defining issue this time around.

“Trade” Has Become a Four-Letter Word
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/21/16
For most of the past generation, trade was in the ascendance. The mantra, “Do what you do best and trade for the rest,” drove policy in most countries.

Is Banking Going Back Into the Shadows?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/13/16
Interest rates have been very low for a long time now. One of the stated intentions of the policy was to encourage investors to be somewhat less conservative, placing their capital in areas that would be more helpful to economic growth.

Better Times Ahead
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 5/12/16
The U.S. economy went through a soft patch in the first quarter. Seasonal adjustment issues played a small role in tipping growth to the soft side. More importantly, a positive outlook for the rest of the year remains in place.

The Plaza Accord Cannot be Reincarnated
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/6/16
Thirty-one years ago, the finance ministers from Japan, France, West Germany, Britain and the United States met to synchronize economic policy in support of global objectives. The “Plaza Accord” set the stage for significant shifts in world markets.

The Plaza Accord Cannot be Reincarnated
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/1/16
Thirty-one years ago, the finance ministers from Japan, France, West Germany, Britain and the United States met to synchronize economic policy in support of global objectives. The “Plaza Accord” set the stage for significant shifts in world markets.

Global Economic Outlook - April 2016
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/27/16
If you had somehow fallen asleep last New Year’s Eve and awoken on March 31, you might not have realized that you’d slept through the first quarter. Economic prospects and market levels were little changed from point to point.

The Sorry State of the States
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/23/16
In a broader sense, though, we are all living through an ongoing fiscal nightmare. The budget news at the Federal level is troubling enough, as we discussed in February.

The Pros and Cons of the “Gig Economy”
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/15/16
The “gig economy” is terribly difficult to measure. Claims about its size vary widely; the consensus is that employment of this kind remains very modest, but it appears to be growing rapidly.

Should Central Banks Call in the Helicopters?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/9/16
For the past eight years, major central banks used unconventional monetary policies to promote economic growth and lift inflation. But success is incomplete on these fronts, and there is an active debate about whether forward guidance, negative interest rates and quantitative easing (QE) remain potent. It may be time for “helicopter money.”

Driving in the Slow Lane, for Now
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 4/8/16
After a turbulent start, the first quarter ended on a calmer note. There were moments when the U.S. economy appeared to defy expectations, and there were moments when the outlook was not rosy. On net, forward momentum remains in place.

First Quarter Odds and Ends
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/2/16
Four months after terrorist attacks struck the streets of Paris, Europe was hit again, at its heart – Brussels. The sophistication of the attacks amid tightened security has once again raised questions around intelligence-sharing across Europe’s borders, and added fuel to the migration debate.

The Collision of Aspiration and Reality in India
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 3/27/16
As China falters somewhat, India has become the world’s new economic darling. Hopes of residents and global investors are lofty, but reality suggests a cautiously optimistic stance.

The Economy and the Election
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/19/16
The number one question I have been asked during the first quarter is: what will the American election mean for the economy?

The ECB’s Race Against Time
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/14/16
Buffeted first by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and then by the sovereign debt crisis two years later, the eurozone has struggled to restore prosperity. Real gross domestic product (GDP) has still not recovered to the level recorded eight years ago, and growth has been uneven.

The Resilient Economy
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 3/10/16
A Headwinds from China, market turbulence and soft economic reports cast doubt about the strength of U.S. economic fundamentals as 2016 began. But the most recent data provide evidence to the contrary.

The “Gasoline Dividend” May Not Be That Powerful
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 3/6/16
The price of gas has again burst through a threshold once thought unapproachable. This time, though, the invisible line was at $2 per gallon. But happily, we breached it on the downside.

China Faces Capital Punishment
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore | of Northern Trust, 2/26/16
The Chinese are presently giving a lot of consideration to gaps in a different kind of barrier, one that restricts the flow of money instead of people. Despite a system of controls, capital has left the country in significant amounts, pressuring Chinese markets and the Chinese currency.

The British Question
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 2/19/16
The relationship between the United Kingdom and European Union (EU) has historically been complex. A significant amount of the British public view EU laws as burdensome, object to inward migration, and take issue with U.K. funds contributing to EU budgets.

Predicting Recession
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/12/16
Economic surveys are reflecting a higher possibility that a recession could begin in the next 12 months.

Focus on Economic Fundamentals
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 2/11/16
Adverse financial market developments have led to an overflow of bearish analyses. It is certainly dangerous to ignore market signals, but they aren’t always conclusive. There are some positive fundamentals in place that provide some reassurance around the outlook.

In Search of Solutions to Four Puzzles
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/6/16
Economic discussions in Washington this week centered on a series of puzzles that are confounding the outlook.

Do Interest Rates Know No Bounds?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/29/16
Many interest rates in Europe have been below zero for quite a while and are poised to fall further.

A "Glass-Is-Half-Full" Perspective on the Outlook
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/22/16
Growth during the current phase has been by far the weakest of the four long expansions the U.S. has enjoyed during the past 50 years. Employment gains have also lagged past precedents.

Ill Winds from the Far East
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/16/16
The new lunar year doesn't begin for another three weeks, but it can't come soon enough for China and its Asian neighbors.

A Tale of Two Economies
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 1/14/16
U.S. economic growth appears to have shifted to a lower gear in the final months of 2015. It has left many concerned about the well-being of the economy and raised questions about the Federal Reserve’s recent hike of the policy rate. In this context, it is important to note that the recent slowing reflects a lopsided development not a widespread deceleration of economic activity.

FOMC Preview: Liftoff Is Imminent, but What’s the Flight Plan?
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 1/8/16
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering next week became a “live” meeting when the Fed declined to act in September. Those who follow U.S. monetary policy have, therefore, had to stay close to their desks and stay away from the punch bowl.

Main Themes of 2015
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/21/15
As we all looked back on the past year, the word “eventful” came up often in conversation. Following are our reflections on the main events that influenced economic performance in 2015.

One Small Step
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/17/15
Seven years to the day after bringing overnight interest rates to near zero, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ended what Chair Janet Yellen termed an “extraordinary period” by moving its targets up by 25 basis points.

FOMC Preview: Liftoff Is Imminent, but What’s the Flight Plan?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/11/15
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering next week became a “live” meeting when the Fed declined to act in September.

Steady Is Stellar
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 12/9/15
As we approach the end of the year, it is customary to take stock of major developments. Economic data point to continued forward momentum in the United States. All in, the economy has grown at an average pace of 2.2% during the first three quarters of the year, nearly matching the potential growth rate of the economy. The labor market is in a significantly better spot than it was at the beginning of the year. Inflation is low despite the age of the expansion.

Oil Hits a New Low
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/5/15
Oil prices remain at very low levels, defying the expectations of many analysts.

Mario Draghi: Economic Man of the Year
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/25/15
With December just around the corner, awards for full-year achievement are beginning to come out. Sport, politics and the arts are recognizing those who reached the highest heights in 2015.

Lessons from Australia and New Zealand on Debt, Immigration, and Food
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 11/21/15
The arc traced by Australian and New Zealand home prices is a source of broad concern. Property values in Sydney, in particular, have risen by 50% over the past 5 years. Observers from near and far fret that the line between fair value and market excess was crossed some time ago.

Germany’s Responsibility to Europe
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 11/13/15
Since 2008, Europe has lurched from one crisis to another. One country emerged as the figurehead for Europe during this time, leading international discussions and fighting to keep the single currency area united.

Growth Will Pick Up
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/12/15
At first blush, the economy’s growth rate in the third quarter (+1.5%) suggests a significant slowing of activity after its solid performance in the second quarter. However, doubts should be set aside, as it was largely a reduction in inventories that held back overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth. In fact, final sales remained strong. Headline growth should pick up as firms increase inventories in the quarters ahead.

The October Jobs Report Gives the Fed a Green Light
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 11/7/15
The first Friday of each month is filled with tension for those in my line of work. The U.S. employment data, arguably the most important international economic release that we receive, comes out on those days.
Results 451–500 of 638 found.