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In Defense of 2%
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 10/30/15
The October release of the consumer price index (CPI) is used to set cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security recipients.

Can Household Finances Be Saved?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 10/23/15
While the data suggest that Americans may be saving more than we thought, most aren’t saving nearly enough.

Global Economic Outlook - October 2015
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Victoria Marklew, Ieisha Montgomery, Marshall Birkey, Ben Trinder of Northern Trust, 10/22/15
It has been a challenging interval for the world economy. The summer saw challenges in Greece, heightened uncertainty over China and renewed concern over emerging markets. At its recent meetings, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) further downgraded its outlook for global growth.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 10/17/15
Wealth Has Different Effects in Different Places; Our Good Fortune with Health Care Costs May Soon End; The Nobel Prize Rewards Digging into the Details

Europe's Immigrants May Solve Native Problems
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 10/10/15
The aging of Europe's postwar generation has placed the working-age population on a downward trajectory.

Facts and Fear
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 10/9/15
The economic headlines have been somewhat disappointing over the past few weeks. First, the Federal Reserve failed to raise interest rates in September, partly out of fear that global conditions were eroding. Congress seems headed for another senseless impasse over the debt ceiling. Emerging markets are feeling added pressure. And some think the U.S. job engine has shifted into a lower gear.

The U.S. Starts a Challenging Fiscal Year
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 10/3/15
The budget battles that rage at this point on the calendar illustrate the myopia and dysfunction of the American legislative process.

In Search of the Phillips Curve
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/25/15
Macroeconomics students spend a good bit of class time learning about the Phillips curve, and it is probably etched permanently in their minds. The Phillips curve suggests that there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short run.

Upon Further Review: More Reflections on the Fed
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/19/15
The Federal Reserve has typically downplayed market expectations of inflation. These indicators emerge from trading in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which can be influenced by many things.

The Fed Holds
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/18/15
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its meeting today with no change in interest rates.

FOMC Preview: First, Do No Harm
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 9/15/15
Next week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is one of the more highly anticipated central bank sessions in years. A couple of months ago, the policy decision that will emerge next Thursday afternoon seemed clear.

The U.S. Economy Is Not Holding Back the Fed
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 9/10/15
The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee meets next week, and there is more uneasiness than usual surrounding the event. Much has changed in the past few weeks, and the Fed’s likely course of action is being examined from a multitude of angles.

Will Unsettled Markets Unsettle the Federal Reserve?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/4/15
The question of how events in the Far East will affect the Fed has come up frequently in recent conversations. At the outset, it should be noted that central banks do not center their policies on the levels of asset markets or the level of volatility.

If China Lands Hard, It Won’t Be Alone
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/28/15
The news from China has been volatile and disconcerting. There is a general sense that the carnage would be far worse if not for active intervention from Chinese authorities.

Trying to Restore Order
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/27/15
It has been an unsettling month for the financial markets. The challenges faced by China, which have been amplified by inconsistent responses from policy makers, have heightened uncertainty.

Was the Euro a Good Idea?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/21/15
The creation of the euro was done for political reasons; as long as it is politically less costly for its members than the alternatives, the euro is here to stay.

China Breaks into a New Range
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/14/15
For some time, analysts have suspected that China’s economic performance was trending well below targeted levels. The equity market correction that began earlier this summer seemed to confirm these concerns; only a substantial amount of official intervention prevented an outright crash. Now we can add exchange-rate uncertainty to the list of things that China will have to manage very carefully.

Is the United States Insulated from China’s Economic Distress?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/7/15
The Chinese economic slowdown, following decades of spectacular growth, is more than noticeable now. Also, the world is watching the recent turbulence in Chinese equity markets closely. These developments have triggered many questions. We address the most popular query in our inbox: What are the potential spillovers to the United States from weaker growth in China?

Fear of the Fed Is Rising
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ben Trinder of Northern Trust, 8/2/15
My youngest daughter has an acute case of arachnophobia; even the tiniest spider sets her off. When a daddy longlegs appeared in the bathroom of a vacation home we were renting, she covered herself in the shower curtain and ran straight out the front door. It’s gotten so bad that the mere mention of a spider upsets her; the fear is almost worse than the reality

Should We Offer More Help to Homeowners?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/25/15
• Should We Offer More Help to Homeowners? • The Dodd-Frank Act Observes Its Fifth Anniversary • Canada Looks South for Economic Support

Global Economic Outlook
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/22/15
Economists and the financial markets have been almost exclusively focused on events in Greece and China over the past several months. These situations merited attention but pushed more-positive economic developments into the background.

Europe Needs to Form a More-Perfect Union
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/17/15
Mario Draghi, ECB president, observed this week that Europe is an imperfect union. Flaws and gaps in treaties must be filled by trust among members. Having failed to follow the dictates of past bailout programs, the Greeks lost the trust of their eurozone partners and will now be subject to very close fiscal oversight.

Themes from the First Half of 2015 and Questions for the Second Half
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/11/15
The weekly commentary is a review of current activity in global financial markets, with an emphasis on the U.S. fixed income market.

Greece: Closer to the Brink
by Carl Tannenbaum, Victoria Marklew of Northern Trust, 7/9/15
Greek voters declared an overwhelming “no” on Sunday – by a margin of 61% to 39%. Whether they were rejecting the notion of reform for aid or perceived German bullying is not clear, but the message to the rest of Europe was clear.

Greek Default is Everyone’s Fault
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/2/15
We do not expect widespread global contagion, but reducing the risk of this outcome will require renewed cooperation between Greece and its creditors. They created the problem together, and neither side can claim the high ground. It is about time that they came back down to earth and worked this thing out.

The Greek Saga Escalates
by Carl Tannenbaum, Victoria Marklew of Northern Trust, 7/1/15
The situation in Greece has taken some unexpected turns over the past several days, commanding the lion’s share of the market’s attention ever since. Following are answers to the questions we are being asked most frequently about the situation.

High Drama for the Hellenic Republic
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/27/15
Hard realities and hardened positions are combining to create a dangerous game of financial chicken between Greece and its creditors. We can only hope they avoid a headlong collision that could create a lot of collateral damage.

Federal Reserve, Abenomics, Trans-Pacific Partnership
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/19/15
Central banks around the world have held interest rates at or near zero for quite a while. This action was justified in the wake of the financial crisis. But there are those who think that zero, in this setting, has become a dangerous concept.

Are We Mismeasuring the Economy?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/12/15
The problem may not be with growth but rather the way we measure it.

America Is Woefully Unprepared for Retirement
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/5/15
Solutions are elusive. We cannot turn back the clock and increase our saving rates or invest with the benefit of hindsight. But from here forward, we need to take a hard look at the structure of public and private retirement systems and reinforce financial literacy among beneficiaries.

Reflections From a Whirlwind Tour of Asia
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/31/15
Reflections From a Whirlwind Tour of Asia; Roads and Ports are Pathways to U.S. Prosperity

Can Emerging Markets Survive Lower Commodity Prices?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/23/15
Can Emerging Markets Survive Lower Commodity Prices?; Some Central Banks Are Playing the Market; Australia – Real Estate Is Too Frothy for Regulator’s Tastes

Explaining the Rise in Long-Term Interest Rates
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/16/15
Explaining the Rise in Long-Term Interest Rates; Consumers Should Overcome Higher Gas Prices; OPEC and the U.S. Face Off in the Oil Markets

The U.K. Election Surprises Everyone
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/8/15
Will the United Kingdom remain united? And will it choose to continue its economic alliance with the rest of the continent? These are key questions not just for Britain, but for the rest of the world. Whatever happens next, this election will certainly prove to be as important as it was billed to be, but perhaps not for the reasons originally thought.

Automation Can Inspire, But Also Intimidate
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/8/15
• Automation Can Inspire, But Also Intimidate • The United States Gets Back to Work • Disability Is Not a Refuge for the Unemployed

Weekly Economic Commentary: The Eurozone Is Seeing Green Shoots but Isn’t Out of the Woods
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/24/15
The Eurozone Is Seeing Green Shoots but Isn't Out of the Woods; Gauging a Country's Potential for Growth; The Trans-Pacific Partnership Might Actually Happen

Weekly Economic Commentary: Countries Can’t Devalue Their Way to Prosperity
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/17/15
Countries Can't Devalue Their Way to Prosperity; Central Banks Are Doing Some Interesting Rebalancing; Paying for the Energy Dividend

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/11/15
Today’s Oil Retreat Is at Odds with Long-Term Trends; A New Bank Creates Controversy in Asia; Solving the U.S. Wage Conundrum

Soft U.S. Employment Data: Not the End of a Trend
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/3/15
The headline numbers of the March employment report are disappointing against the backdrop of consistently strong reports for past several months. But putting things in perspective suggests that we have not completely forfeited the positive momentum in America’s labor market.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/27/15
After Slow Start, the U.S. Should Regain Steam; Greece: The Debt Elephant in the Room; How Can Governments Keep Borrowing Under Control?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/21/15
What Is Full Employment, and Are We There Yet?; Negative Interest Rates Are Spreading Across Europe; The Return of the U.S. Debt Ceiling

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/14/15
China Moves Cautiously Toward a New Normal; Deleveraging Is Unfinished in the Industrialized World; Will Lower Borrowing Costs in Europe Be a Boon for U.S Firms?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/7/15
Quantitative easing comes to the eurozone; U.S. job growth is strong, but wage growth is not; The California port strike has troubled trade... and economists

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/27/15
The U.S. Housing Industry Continues to Struggle; The "Millennials" Hold the Key to Housing; Is Another Bubble Forming in U.S. Commercial Real Estate?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/6/15
Not everyone is happy about the dollar’s recent strength; Debt negotiations between Greece and its creditors are off to a rocky start; Wages may finally be reflecting the strong U.S. employment picture

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/31/15
Calculating the consequences of budget policies is a global headache. The recent round of central bank easing may continue for a while. Reports of a budding currency war are exaggerated

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/25/15
The ECB Faces Fact; United States: Federal Budget Check-Up; Are Risk Management Techniques Adding to Market Risk?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/17/15
?Francogeddon? ? ?tsunami? ? ?carnage? ? The hyperbole after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly ended its three-year currency ceiling peg to the euro yesterday was not misplaced. The immediate impact has been profound across a range of markets. The longer-time ripples are only beginning to become apparent. This is what we?ve gleaned so far:

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/10/15
Greece's renewed drama is more noise than signal; U.S. job growth rolls merrily along

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/20/14
I recently revisited the economic projections we made last January, as part of my performance appraisal. I dread the experience, as it tends to highlight my frailty as a forecaster. This year wasnt too bad, though. Allowing for the polar vortex, we got U.S. growth just about right. We had been skeptical about Europe, and thought that China would moderate. Our call on how the Federal Reserve would progress was spot on. However, a number of things that transpired during 2014 caught us quite by surprise. Here is our roster of the most unexpected events and trends of the year.
Results 501–550 of 638 found.