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Results 501–550
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The Trump Rally Will Morph
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Today we’ll look at stock valuation several different ways, see what history tells us about the future, and then think about how to react. There are good reasons to think that the Trump rally could morph into the stereotypical and expected Santa Claus rally. Toward the end of the letter, I will comment on why. It’s actually kind of a rational process. And then what?
A Big Swirling Italian Mess
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Italians are headed to the polls this Sunday (and thus this letter is reaching you a little earlier than usual) – but no one is quite sure what is on the ballot. On the surface, the voters are considering whether to approve constitutional reforms that should make the government operate more effectively (or not, depending on your point of view). But many people think the real question is whether the current government should stay in power and whether Italy should remain yoked to the Eurozone.
This Could Be Our 1989
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
I think many of my readers are in the same boat I’m in: we are still sorting out the implications of last Tuesday’s election. My style is generally not to shoot from the hip but to think about things before I start to write. When I have adopted the “ready–fire–aim” style of writing, I have usually found myself going back and asking, “What was I thinking?” And the answer is that I wasn’t doing enough thinking.
The Election: Making Difficult Choices
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
It is quite conceivable that we could be approaching $30 trillion in national debt by the time the president is inaugurated in 2021. Make whatever assumption you want to about interest rates, the level of taxable revenues in current models suggests that interest could easily be consuming more than 15–16% of revenues by then. And growing… That is not a sustainable model.
How to Rebuild Healthcare Right
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Today we’ll look at the remarkable results the Cleveland Clinic has already achieved with its 100,000+ employees and dependents and with numerous corporations they work with. They are making people healthier and reducing medical costs. It is a model that I think could work on a much broader scale.
Taking a Wrench to Healthcare
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
This week we are going to look at the US healthcare system, not simply to critique Obamacare, but to explore the deeper problems. Warning: this letter will print much longer as the latter half of the letter has a lot of charts and graphs.
Federal Repression System
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
In today’s letter we are going to look at the FOMC’s decision-making process for monetary policy and survey the unpalatable future that our leaders are cooking up for us. But we won’t be living in the fantasy world they have created for themselves; we are going to have to live in the real world instead, where investment portfolios make a difference to our lifestyle and retirement, not only for ourselves but for our families and clients.
Start Moving Some Dirt
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
The state of US infrastructure is appalling. It needs at least $3.6 trillion worth of repairs, and that does not even include what we need to do to prepare us for the 21st century. We have dug ourselves a very deep hole of massive failures on infrastructure upkeep, and we are continuing to dig. During Speaker of the House John Boehner’s tenure, one of the annual features was a speech by the speaker in which he would decry the state of our infrastructure, acknowledge that we needed to do something about it, and then once again say that we hadn’t figured out where to get the money.
Negative Rates Nail Savers
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
The economy has been rigged through a process that may have seemed innocent enough at any given point but that quickly put us on a slippery slope as ideological forces captured the ramparts of academic economic science. A brief history will bring us up to date.
An Inheritance of Incompetence
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Theories and practices often outlive their usefulness in our fast-changing world. So do institutions, including those chartered at the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference. In today’s letter we are going to look closely at the International Monetary Fund and a scathing report from its own internal auditors. For those of us who have been following the IMF for decades, the report is not all that surprising.
World Gone Backwards
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
This week Patrick discusses another aspect of globalization, one that has a direct bearing on questions of equity. He explores the technologies that allowed globalization to take hold and the new technologies that are actually allowing production to “re-shore.”
The Trouble with Trade
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
We haven’t seen this kind of protectionist rhetoric in a long time, at least from major party candidates. Globalization is taking the blame for a wide variety of ills. The trouble with all this dissing of globalization and free trade is that, like some generals, both major political parties are fighting the last war, not the ones we face today and tomorrow. And the Libertarian Party seems to think that the correct philosophy by itself will cure the problems, which it may do in the long run; but philosophy doesn’t pay the bills or create jobs in the short run.
When the Future Becomes Today
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
While everyone was talking about Brexit for the last month, the Bank for International Settlements released its 86th annual report. Based in Basel, Switzerland, the BIS functions as a master hub for all the world’s central banks. It settles transactions among central banks and other international organizations. It doesn’t serve private individuals, businesses, or national governments.
Europe Is a Minefield
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
As Donald Rumsfeld more or less said, there are things we know and things we don’t know and things that we can’t even imagine. Brexit falls into all of those categories. So before we start speculating ourselves, let’s take a trip down Reality Lane in Europe. Then, after we have, I will offer a few of my own … speculations.
Thinking the Unthinkable
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
I’m going to proceed to give you an updated version of my speech from one month ago at the Strategic Investment Conference. It actually has (as you will see) more relevance today than it did a month ago. We have edited the transcript so that the speech is much shorter and tighter; and of course, going back over it, I came up with a few thoughts here and there that I would like to have inserted in the original. I like this updated version better than the transcript. Like St. Paul, I guess taking the time to organize my thoughts and perform numerous edits does improve my message.
Generational Chaos Ahead
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
I’m going to do something a little different in this letter in that I’m going to borrow wholesale from Neil Howe’s speech at my conference and his voluminous writings in order to give us a view of what to expect in the next five to eight years. And given that the Brexit vote looms next week and that it’s part and parcel of what Neil is talking about, I will offer some final thoughts on Brexit. That should be enough to keep us occupied for the next few minutes.
Hot Summer Economic Weirdness
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
We who inhabit the northern hemisphere will soon enter summer. Many would say summer is already with us – most schools are closed, and a general laziness is beginning to set in – especially for those in the “protected” class. For many of them, summer is a verb. They “summer” in the Hamptons, or Lake Tahoe, or somewhere in the tropics.
Your Portfolio Design: Assume the Fetal Position
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Sometimes you can go through that process and still end up bearish on almost everything. Richard Fisher seems to be in that camp. Asked in our final wrap-up panel Friday morning how his own portfolio was positioned, Fisher answered with one word: “Fetal.” And while his answer got a general laugh and a lot of pushback on the final panel from Niall Ferguson, who thinks he sees the beginning of an inflection point, it seemed a pretty good summary of the conference.
Life on the Edge, Continued
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Coaches tell athletes that if they still have any energy left when they head back into the locker room when the game is over, they haven’t played hard enough. You’re supposed to leave it all on the field. That’s pretty much how I feel right now, so I don’t have a lot of energy to write a new letter. But thankfully, the comments we received from my May 15 letter, “Life on the Edge,” were among the best we’ve ever had. So I am going to reproduce them and maybe add a few responses of my own in between.
Report from Abu Dhabi ... and Dallas
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
This is a slightly expanded version of a letter that I have already sent to those who will be attending next week’s Strategic Investment Conference in Dallas. It covers the agenda in detail and will give you an idea of how I go about putting a conference together and what I’m trying to learn from the speakers. If this is of no interest to you, just skip it and go to the end where I will share some brief impressions from my time in Abu Dhabi.
Life on the Edge
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Populist angst is taking hold around the world. Like all anger, it isn’t necessarily rational and may not bring the desired changes, but the anger and frustration are real. People have real problems, and increasingly they don’t trust traditional leaders to solve them.
Sell in May and Go Away?
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
The prevailing market lore is that one should sell in May and go away, returning in October. And over the last 65 years, that axiom has on average held true. Unfortunately, we can’t live on averages in the short term, and so we have to decide what to do today. Thus – just like the Fed – we are data-dependent.
What Condition My Condition Is In
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
In this week’s letter we will take a quick look at the condition of a slowing global economy (the IMF just downgraded its own forecast this last week). Then we’ll grapple with a Plan B scenario, because I have a confession of sorts: I am not entirely optimistic that Congress and the new president can get their act together, so I offer a proposal from former Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn as to what we, the people, can do to actually change the country’s direction without having to depend on a Congress that may prove dysfunctional. Again.
Open Letter to the President, Part Five
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Without significant changes in tax and incentive structures, the US will almost assuredly enter a recession within the next few years. Then, if we lose tax revenues only to the extent we did in the last couple of recessions, we’ll be saddled with a deficit of over $1.3 trillion, and the deficit won’t fall below $1 trillion as far out as the eye can see, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
Open Letter to the Next President, Part 4
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Today we are going to look at what the next president might do in response to recession – and possibly even to prevent a recession. I actually think a positive path can be found, but following it will take an enormous political effort and a big shift in the current environment of noncooperation.
Open Letter to the Next President, Part 3
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Today we continue my series of open letters to the presidential candidates. In the meantime, we’ve drawn a little closer to knowing whom the two major parties will nominate. A few people are vowing to consider minor parties, too.
An Open Letter to the Next President
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
As the entire world is painfully aware, it is election year in the United States. I realize the images my non-American friends see may not inspire confidence. Our process is messy in the best of circumstances, and this year we are not at our best.
ZIRP & NIRP: Killing Retirement As We Know It
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
The zero interest rate and now negative interest rate policies of our central banks are gumming up the global retirement machinery. The Federal Reserve and other central banks have spent so many years subsidizing debt and punishing savings that it is now extremely difficult to guarantee future income streams at a reasonable present cost. And future income streams are the very heart and soul of retirement. Without adequate future income streams, retirement as we know it today is off the table.
The Fed Prepares to Dive
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
This week’s letter has two parts. The first deals with some of the practical aspects of negative rates and what the Fed is really signaling. The second part, which is somewhat philosophical, deals with why the Fed will institute negative rates during the next recession. This letter is longer than usual, but I think it’s important to understand why we will see negative rates in the world’s reserve currency (and the currency in which most global trade is conducted). This policy trend is truly a foray into unexplored territory.
A Little Chaos Is a Good Thing
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Longtime readers know that I rarely delve into partisan politics. That’s not the usual focus of this letter. While I am sure that most readers suspect that I generally lean Republican, I try not to let that enter into our macroeconomic and investment discussions. And I’m not really going to change that policy today. What I do want to talk about are the rather arcane topics of how the delegates to a national convention are chosen and what a “brokered convention” would actually look like.
Tokyo Doubles Down
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
I’ve been busily writing a letter on oil and energy, but in the middle of the process I decided yesterday that I really needed to talk to you about the Bank of Japan’s “surprise” interest-rate move to -0.1%. And I don’t so much want to comment on the factual of the policy move as on what it means for the rest of the world, and especially the US.
China’s Year of the Monkees
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
China isn’t the only reason markets got off to a terrible start this month, but it is definitely a big factor (at least psychologically). Between impractical circuit breakers, weaker economic data, stronger capital controls, and renewed currency confusion, China has investors everywhere scratching their heads.
2016: Surprises & Scenarios
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Today we’ll look at 2016 forecasts from some professionals I trust. I know most of them personally and have been friends with some of them for years. I know they aren’t just “talking their book.” They may turn out to be wrong, but if so, it will be for the right reasons. After we review the forecasts, we’ll look at some common threads among them, as well as important differences.
Economicus Terra Incognita
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Welcome to 2016. Tradition dictates that you spend the first few weeks or so reading forecasts for the coming year. I can say with certainty that most of them will be wrong. A smaller number may hit the target. Unfortunately, no one knows which forecasts will fall into which category.
The Seven Fat Years of ZIRP
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
In today’s letter we are going to examine the problematic credit markets, and I want to focus on something that is happening off the radar screen: the continuing rise of credit in private lending. I predicted the rise of private credit back in 2007 and said that it would become a major force in the world, but I got strange looks from audiences when I talked about the arcane subject of private credit. Today the shadow banking system is taking significant market share from traditional banking.
George Friedman’s World of Geopolitics
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
In today’s letter, I have transcribed a conversation George Friedman and I had a few days ago. In it, we talk about how our new joint effort came about and why George has left Stratfor to create his new firm, Geopolitical Futures.
You Have Questions, I Have Answers
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
Rather than dive deeply into a single topic today, I will weigh in on some of the week’s top financial stories. I recently did a webinar debate with my friend Frank Trotter, hosted by Robert Huebscher of Advisor Perspectives, on whether the Fed should raise rates in December. I argued they should, for reasons I’ve written about before, so we won’t go into that. But we did get a number of incisive, timely questions during and after the webinar. I will try to answer most of them in this letter.
Results 501–550
of 920 found.
