Jensen Huang may see Marvell Technology Inc. as the stock market’s “next trillion-dollar company,” but it’s going to take a lot of growth for the chipmaker to even sniff that lofty level.
Marvell shares soared 33% on June 2 after Nvidia Corp.’s chief executive officer laid out his audacious prediction at the Computex technology trade show in Taipei. The stock hit a record on June 4, sending the company’s market capitalization to about $277 billion, but has since fallen about 2%, taking that number down to about $272 billion. Shares were rose about 1% in early trading Tuesday.
There are just 12 US companies worth $1 trillion or more, with Space Exploration Technologies Corp. the latest to join the group after its initial public offering last week, making founder Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire.
Regardless of whether it reaches $1 trillion anytime soon, Marvell is on an amazing run, with its shares soaring more than 265% in 2026 and on pace for their best year ever. The company is set to join the S&P 500 Index on June 22, where it will immediately be among this year’s best performing stocks.
Marvell is developing optical technology needed in the next phase of artificial intelligence computing. Nvidia is a Marvell supplier and invested $2 billion in the company at the end of March, enabling Marvell to integrate its custom AI chips and networking equipment into Nvidia’s systems. The companies also agreed to work together to develop silicon photonics, which use light instead of copper wiring to move data more efficiently.
“Getting into the next level of chips for Marvell is a crucial part for them to get into that stratosphere, the trillion dollar club,” said Bob Lang, founder of Explosive Options.
Getting there won’t be easy, however. Marvell will have to reach roughly $60 billion in revenue with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 50 for a $1 trillion valuation to be feasible, according back-of-the-envelope calculations by Felix Wang, tech sector head at Hedgeye Risk Management. The company is expected to report revenue of $11.5 billion in fiscal 2027, which ends Jan. 31, and that’s projected to rise to almost $30 billion by fiscal 2030.
“I’m not going to argue with Jensen because he knows a lot more than I do, but I don’t necessarily see it,” said Rhys Williams, chief strategist at Wayve Capital Management. “They haven’t done as well as others like Broadcom.”
That said, it’s hardly out of the question that Marvell will put up faster-than-expected revenue growth to reach a trillion-dollar valuation quicker than the projections indicate, according to Wang, who’s bullish on Marvell. Assuming 50% annual growth, revenue could hit $60 billion by calendar year 2030, Wang estimates.
“It’s not far off in my mind,” he said.
Of course, some see Marvell’s current valuation as too pricey after the stock raced ahead this year, which could hold it back in the market. The shares trade at roughly 60 times earnings over the next 12 months, which would put them among the 15 most expensive companies in the S&P 500. By comparison, Nvidia trades at about 21 times forward earnings, and Broadcom Inc. is at about 24 times.
“It’s a matter of how far out you want to pay for earnings,” Lang said. “There’s going to be some lumpiness on earnings, and that’s a risk for Marvell.”
Marvell’s future really hinges on the durability of the hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditures tech giants have committed to build out the infrastructure for AI, particularly data centers. Wall Street is bullish on the stock, with 45 of the 50 analysts tracked by Bloomberg who follow the company rating it a buy and no analysts carrying a sell recommendation. However, the average price target of $246.79 represents a roughly 20% drop from where they closed Monday.
The next major catalyst for shares comes in August, when the company is set to report quarterly earnings. While the road to $1 trillion may not be smooth, bulls say Huang’s faith in the company represents a huge vote of confidence that it will eventually get there.
Huang “may have randomly threw out the number to hype things up, and the market is focused on that,” Hedgeye’s Wang said. “But it was an extreme moment for Marvell to get that kind of recognition.”
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