A real, potentially lasting U.S.-Iran deal appears to be on the horizon for the first time in many weeks of on-, then off-again negotiations. Should this be the deal that does it, or another one in the near term, oil prices will respond. In fact, they’ve already dropped in response to the news that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. These recent developments may offer opportunities for savvy investors in emerging markets.
Key Takeaways:
- Brent crude hovered around $80 this week as a real U.S.-Iran deal appeared imminent.
- This may benefit emerging markets economies, particularly in Asian markets that rely heavily on fuel imports.
- Emerging markets ETFs like GSEE could prove shrewd second-half pickups.
Emerging markets economies, the Asia-Pacific region in particular, rely heavily on imported fuel. Nations like Thailand, for example, were some of the first to be impacted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While there is significant infrastructure damage to energy production, however, a deal would help oil prices dip. This shift stands to benefit emerging markets, particularly in growing economies like Vietnam.
Investors can get targeted exposure to these emerging markets with ETFs like GSEE. The Goldman Sachs MarketBeta Emerging Markets Equity ETF (GSEE) represents an interesting example, as it builds on strong performance entering 2026. Before the U.S. attacks on Venezuela and Iran, investors were already looking to diversify abroad. Such demand has helped the ETF return 26.2% YTD. According to ETF Database data, GSEE has seen a spike in the last month, returning 6.4%.
