Bond traders are growing more convinced that US yields are heading lower as they bet on a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, yet the path to cheaper borrowing costs is set to be extremely bumpy.
Bond traders shrugged off higher-than-anticipated inflation readings for December, pricing in a larger total amount of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year beginning in May.
Traders betting on a 2024 bond rally are unfazed by the recent pullback, seeing it as a chance to seize on elevated yields before the Federal Reserve starts driving down interest rates.
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder said that market expectations for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in March are likely too early.
US stock and bond prices will see modest gains as the Federal Reserve pivots to cutting interest rates next year, though the easing may not be as aggressive as markets are now expecting.
The bond market’s bold bet on US interest-rate cuts is set for its biggest test yet.
Bond traders who powered a ferocious rally in the $26 trillion US Treasury market are about to find out if they’ve gotten ahead of themselves.
A torrid bond market rally shows traders are convinced the Federal Reserve’s rate-rising cycle is over. The debate now turns to when central bankers start cutting, and by how much.
In a year in which little has gone right in the US bond market, November turned out to be a month for the record books.
For investors stashing record sums in cash, US bond managers overseeing a combined $2.5 trillion have a bit of advice: It’s time to put that money to work.
It’s the buzz word on Wall Street and in the hallways of the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department. It’s blamed for triggering bond selloffs, shifts in debt auctions and interest-rate policy.
A prospect that might have seemed unthinkable just a couple short weeks ago is coming into view for bond traders: The potential for US Treasuries to post an annual gain for the first time since 2020.
The selloff in US debt appears close to being over as the Federal Reserve nears winding up its most aggressive rate hikes in a generation.
Embattled debt investors like the look of 5% Treasury yields as they weigh the risk-versus-reward scales for the world’s biggest bond market.
The worst selloff of longer-term Treasuries in more than four decades is putting a spotlight on the market’s biggest missing buyer: the Federal Reserve.
Bond investors are coalescing around a segment of the Treasuries market that offers a measure of protection from this year’s brutal rout and also positions them for the recession that some still anticipate.
The bond market’s selloff accelerated after a surge in US hiring raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates again this year.
It was the week that bond markets finally seemed to grasp what central bankers have been warning all year: higher interest rates are here to stay.
A key measure of how much bond investors are compensated for holding long-term debt turned positive for the first time since June 2021, reflecting steep increases in longer-maturity Treasury yields.
To judge by recent history, a US government shutdown won’t be a huge event for the bond market. If anything, it could even provide a little short-term relief, since Treasuries usually rally when investors need somewhere to hide.
Bond investors face the crucial decision of just how much risk to take in Treasuries with 10-year yields at the highest in more than a decade and the Federal Reserve signaling it’s almost done raising rates.
Bond traders are bracing for Treasury yields to keep pushing higher after the Federal Reserve signaled it’s likely to hold interest rates at lofty levels well into next year.
US five- and 10-year yields rose to the highest levels since 2007 after hotter-than-anticipated inflation data in Canada and rising oil prices added to global concerns about resurgent price pressures.
Amid signs the bond market has bought into the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer, a cohort of investors is placing bets on the economy hitting a wall — and a sharp policy reversal in short order.
Federal Reserve policymakers’ updated forecasts for their benchmark interest rate, due Wednesday, are looming as a key potential decider for a US Treasuries market at risk of a third straight year of losses.
The world’s most powerful central bankers have vowed in unison to keep interest rates higher for longer if necessary to tame inflation.
Jerome Powell has the bond market exactly where he wants it: lacking conviction as to the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
The US bond-market selloff resumed Monday, driving 10-year yields to a 16-year high, as the persistently resilient economy has investors positioning for interest rates to remain elevated even after the Federal Reserve winds up its hikes.
All around the world, bond traders are finally coming to the realization that the rock-bottom yields of recent history might be gone for good.
Across Wall Street, there’s growing relief that the Federal Reserve — at long last — may be done raising interest rates. But that doesn’t mean turbulence in the bond market will soon become a thing of the past.
A closely watched bond market gauge of expected US inflation is rising back toward a nine-year high, signaling concern the Federal Reserve may continue to wrestle with elevated price pressures for years.
Bulging sales of US Treasuries are about to deliver a major test of investor demand and determine whether a selloff has room to run, as the market braces for the biggest round of refunding auctions since last year.
The mood is rapidly souring in the world’s bond market, raising the stakes for Friday’s much-anticipated US monthly jobs data.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday appeared to give traders the positive signal they’ve been waiting for — that the central bank may finally be wrapping up its steepest interest-rate hikes since the early 1980s.
Sixteen months after the Federal Reserve began its most aggressive rate-hike cycle in decades, markets are breathing a sigh of relief that the central bank — at long last — may finally be done.
Listen to Wall Street’s top economists and you’ll hear the same message again and again: The risk of a recession is fading fast. And yet, in the bond market, the traditional warning that a downturn is near — an inversion of the yield curve — keeps getting louder.
Some of the biggest bond managers are sticking to their bullish view on the market for US government debt, even as that trade looks riskier by the day.
Bond traders are bracing for another tumultuous week in which key employment data could push yields on 10-year Treasuries toward 4%, a level that market watchers see luring investors into government debt.
Treasury yields surged Thursday, most to the highest levels since March, as strong economic growth data prompted traders to wager that the Federal Reserve will raise rates two more times this year.
The barrage of fresh Treasury bills poised to hit the market over the next few months is merely a prelude to what’s yet to come: a wave of longer-term debt sales that are seen driving bond yields even higher.
Bond traders are stepping up wagers that the Federal Reserve will steer the US economy into a recession.
The market for wagers on the course of Federal Reserve policy shows that traders now expect the US central bank’s policy rate will peak in September, where they previously looked for it to crest in July.
William Eigen isn’t about to apologize for his bond fund’s performance this year. Yes, his $8.7 billion JPMorgan Strategic Income Opportunities Fund is trailing about 60% of its peers after trouncing nearly every one of them last year.
The risks for bond investors from next week’s Federal Reserve meeting go well beyond whether officials decide to raise interest rates again.
Two years after inflation surged, the Federal Reserve has made limited progress tamping it down. A coterie of investors in the bond market is betting not only that policymakers will win, but that they’re right in anticipating the era of low long-term interest rates will return.
For over a year, bond traders have been whipsawed by uncertainty about how high the Federal Reserve will push interest rates.
Bond-market titans BlackRock Inc., Pacific Investment Management Co. and Vanguard Group Inc. are warning that recent violent swings in US Treasuries are only the beginning of a new era of volatility that’s here to stay until central banks conquer inflation.
The risk of a US debt default is greater than it’s ever been, threatening to tip global markets into a brand-new world of pain. For investors, there are few places to hide other than the oldest hedge in the book: gold.
This year’s top US bond managers agree that Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts are inevitable this year. The main debate they see is how deep the economic pain gets.
With inflation easing around the world and many central banks nearing the end of their interest rate hikes, a growing chorus of investors say the best place for bond buyers to juice returns is in emerging markets.
