The idea that “market expectations” tell us anything about the economy’s future is – or should be – in serious doubt. That’s not to say the market is wrong. It just changes its mind so often as to be useless. And most of the time, it changes its mind after the fact.

Super Tuesday was, if I may, super obvious. Former President Donald Trump clinched nearly every delegate that was up for grabs, forcing his Republican challenger, Nikki Haley, out of the race, which all but guarantees his nomination.

When the regional banking woes unfolded in March 2023, we argued that the challenges were not likely to be systemic. We continue to think that the challenges facing regional banks are likely contained, though near-term market volatility is always possible.

The move higher in the S&P 500 has been historic. In fact, the S&P 500 has climbed ~17% over the last four months and is on pace to rally 17 of the last 19 weeks.

Record issuance in bonds to start 2024 is now showing up in the sales numbers. In the case of corporate bonds, record issuance in January was met with record sales in February as the scramble to lock in yields is spurring bond buyers to act.

There are at least two certainties regarding Indian stocks. First, equities in that country have been the stars among major emerging markets for several years.

Learn how to engage and tailor approaches for women, addressing unique challenges and priorities in financial planning. Discover insights and resources to actively support female clients, seize opportunities, and shape the future of wealth management for women.

Recessions are part of the economic cycle. No one looks forward to a recession because of the pain it can impose on investors or worse, job security.

Issues like water scarcity are felt most intensely at the local level. That makes it incumbent on municipal bond issuers to lead the response.

Although a strong economy has changed expectations about the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts, we still see room for the Federal Reserve to cut by three-quarters of a point this year.

While central banks in the United States and eurozone are gauging when to embark on monetary easing, the Bank of Japan will likely hike in April. All three will continue to monitor wages (and their impact on services inflation) and the balance of risks to economic growth.

Noble Prize winners and “Modern Portfolio Theory” pioneers Harry Markowitz and William Sharpe developed what we know today as the 60-40 portfolio. This strategy consisted of a hypothetical 60 percent allocation to equities and a 40 percent allocation to fixed income.

One of the widely cited catalysts pertaining to bitcoin is supply. Only 21 million of the digital coins can be mined. And thanks to quadrennial halvings, the next of which is slated for April, it gets harder to mine the cryptocurrency.

Actively managed ETFs continue to gain traction. After a strong 2023, active ETFs gathered 34% of the net inflows in the first two months of 2024. Impressive for an asset category that still represents 6% of overall industry assets.

It is earnings season in music land, and some exciting growth trends are emerging among companies involved in the global music industry. At the forefront of the industry has been renewed interest in live music in the post-pandemic environment.

In this paper, GMO proposes a novel approach to financing emerging countries’ transitions toward cleaner energy production. Indeed, we believe a significant opportunity exists across two dimensions: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction and investment returns.

We get granular as the environment for risk-taking is supportive for now. That’s why we like euro area high yield credit, emerging market debt and U.S. stocks.

Japan's prolonged downturn has lessons for other nations at inflection points.

The average expected return on asset (EROA) assumption for the largest U.S.-listed pension plan sponsors increased to 6.70% in 2023—the first time a year-over-year increase has been observed in 19 years of records.

Although the world is beset by wars, rising great-power tensions, and other geopolitical risks, most of these factors have not radically affected the outlook for economies and markets in the near term. But that could change if the United States returns to an aggressive "America First" posture.

The active ETF TCAF has crested $1 billion in AUM in just nine months. Emblematic of a strong year for active ETF investing, the T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation ETF (TCAF) added nearly $500 million in flows over the last three months alone.

Among the G7 countries, the U.S. economy and its inflation rate, for that matter, are impressive. But when factoring other large economies into the equation, India is the dominant force.

The Equity Symposium is just a week away. Advisors can earn free CE credits and hear from industry experts and thought leaders on March 13th.

Rodney Comegys, Global Head of Vanguard Equity Index Group, offers actionable insights to investors on how to select active strategies that can help them achieve investment success.

Investor sentiment and stock market valuations are getting increasingly stretched as indexes trek higher, but solid underlying breadth has been a positive offset for now.

This PIMCO Perspectives assesses how the term premium’s 40-year downturn could start to reverse.

India’s growth story is unprecedented.

After over two years, retail investors, also known as the “dumb money,” are almost back to breakeven.

The economy continues to hum along (Atlanta Fed 1Q24 GDP estimate: +3.0%), albeit shifting down a notch from the pace seen in the final quarters of last year.

In this paper, GMO proposes a novel approach to financing emerging countries’ transitions toward cleaner energy production.

The shift from a regime of secular stagnation to one of reflation is contributing to both a broadening of global earnings growth and significantly higher dispersion in company results and performance.

Amid a 2023 market rally, exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows had a banner year, putting the mutual fund industry further on notice that ETF popularity continues to grow exponentially. Furthermore, the move toward ETFs should increase investor exposure to active funds that focus on bonds.

Spot bitcoin ETFs have been in focus for the financial services community for the first two months of 2024. Last week at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the executives behind the largest of these ETFs, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) helped open the stock market.

Washington DC continues to spend much more than it gets in revenue. In the Calendar Year of 2023, the federal government spent $6.3 trillion but only collected $4.5 trillion in taxes.

In previous missives, we have gone into considerable detail regarding the historic ascent of index concentration, coupled with the heightened prevalence of passive investing.

European nations still have a long energy transition ahead.

22%. That is the average increase in potential retirement spending that individual savers in defined contribution plans can achieve when they embed guaranteed retirement income solutions into a target date fund. For lower-income workers, it’s a 25% increase.

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have long been thought of as a great source for income investors seeking higher than average income as well as good growth and income.

Personal income increased more than expected in January, up 1.0% (or $233.7 billion). The increase in January closely matches what happened in January of 2023 when it increased by 0.95% (or $213 billion).

Buoyed by the artificial-intelligence boom, the US stock market is breaking records with no apparent end in sight. But given the significant challenges and uncertainties facing the American economy regardless of who occupies the White House in 2025, there is little reason to believe that the current rally can last.

Many fixed income investors have started venturing out in duration in portfolios. When interest rates are cut, high-quality duration could serve as an important hedge for a bond portfolio.

After a stellar 2023, the magnificent seven are mixed through the first two months of 2024. Nvidia (NVDA) is on a breathtaking pace higher while Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is up 10%.

I have written this month’s Absolute Return Letter with a heavy heart. I don’t take any pleasure from other people’s misery.

I revisited that original post a couple of weeks ago as the market approached its 5000 psychological milestone. Since then, the entire market has surged higher following last week’s earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA).

OPEC+ strategies and geopolitical tensions could roil markets.

In my last blog, I talked about how strong Januarys historically tend to lead to strong returns throughout the remainder of the year.

Ed Perks, Chief Investment Officer of Franklin Income Investors, explores the impact of these changes on the fixed income and equity markets and offers insights regarding opportunities in different asset classes.

Equity investors didn't mind the extra day this February as both domestic large-cap stocks and small-to-mid-cap stocks saw steady gains through the month, bringing both groups into positive territory year-to-date, though the latter continues to lag.

The markets these days have been especially sensitive to economic data, as any indication of weakness could mean rate cuts may finally be close. That, in effect, should also push the S&P 500 to even higher heights.

The Equity Symposium on March 13 is shaping up to give investors critical insights into the equity space. This free event will provide CE credits. VettaFi is fresh off the smashing success of Exchange and continuing to provide the insights investors need to navigate today’s complicated environment.