For the first time in roughly fifteen years, interest rates in the United States are about right. In economics, we call it the “neutral” or “natural” rate.
The change in tone from the Fed Chairman regarding inflation suggests that rates may have peaked. This month, we're highlighting the positive performance of the markets, with the S&P 500 approaching levels last seen in July. We're also experiencing an improvement in consumer confidence as things remain relatively healthy despite housing costs.
It’s that time of the year where Wall Street polishes up their crystal balls and pin targets on the S&P index for the upcoming year. As is often the case, while Wall Street is always optimistic, the forecasts prove pretty wrong.
A review of recent US inflation data, the Recession Risk Dashboard, and thoughts on if we’ve reached the peak in the fed funds rate. Join us for this conversation with Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments.
Following a tumultuous 2022, this year has been better, though not entirely sanguine for fixed income investors. 2024 is right around the corner, and expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are rising. Now is the ideal time for advisors to evaluate opportunities in the bond market.
Widely regarded as a barometer for the overall stock market, the S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges.
It’s been a very good year for U.S. high yield. In fact, BondBloxx Investment Management has noted that riskier fixed income assets have outperformed U.S. Treasuries.
We see potential opportunity in municipal bonds in 2024, although there may be more volatility.
One thing you learn when writing about the debt problem, as I have been in recent weeks, is that many people think it’s not a problem at all.
Airline consolidation is not only relatively common but necessary for growth and competitiveness, and the recent announcement of Alaska Airlines’ planned acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines is a prime example of this trend.
Bitcoin prices are near $44,000 and excitement is pouring into the space again. That’s largely due to the focus on the potential launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in January.
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team believes that sustainable investing will be a dominant investment trend in the coming years, with structural tailwinds that could help improve financial returns.
The Market Outlook Symposium is coming on December 14. The latest symposium from VettaFi will offer investors a deep and incisive look at how to position for 2024 and beyond. In today’s unusual market environment, this is a critical topic.
Funds will begin paying out their 2023 distributions this month which could lead to a tax bill for your clients. While capital gains distributions will likely be lower this year than in recent years, interest income is expected to be higher.
The financial markets, investor opinions, and world events have been all over the place – so bear with me this morning as I am going all over the place with a variety of year-to-date observations and comments.
Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, recently sat down with Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Josh Lohmeier and Western Asset Portfolio Manager Mark Lindbloom to discuss the fixed income landscape—and why they believe 2024 will be a good year for fixed income investors.
It’s possible that a 2024 recession could be avoided, but we see recessions risks as remaining elevated in most developed markets. We believe there is limited upside for equities amid expensive valuations and recession concerns. Government bond valuations, however, look attractive in the U.S., UK, Canada, Germany and Australia.
Jeremy Grantham will be a keynote speaker at Exchange, joining an exceptional roster of luminaries, thought leaders, and industry titans.
American consumers are becoming more frugal this holiday season.
The winter holiday season is here, and I wanted to join in the festivities. Recently, advisors have become more comfortable turning to active ETFs to help them and their clients navigate the uncertain market environment. Actively managed ETFs have gained traction in 2023.
History shows that returns are greatest when capital is scarce. But investors need to also realize that risks escalate when there is a glut of capital.
The capital markets are already pricing in rate cuts ahead of 2024, causing yields to fall. One way to continue supplementing income amid a potential drop in yields is to diversify income using a pair of active exchange-traded funds.
Although some volatility may continue, we believe interest rates have peaked. We expect lower Treasury yields and positive returns for investors in 2024.
As of late Monday, bitcoin had surged nearly 14% over the past seven days. That’s exceeded 42% for the first time since May 2022.
Our portfolio managers field some tough questions on Matthews Asia Dividend’s performance, its positioning and what they believe are its unique strengths for investors.
In early October, gold was valued at around $1,820 according to Kitco. That is fairly close to its low for the calendar year. Its previous low came in late February, at $1,811.
Is a stock market correction coming before the Santa Claus rally at the end of the year?
A year ago, I’m pretty sure I had little idea what artificial intelligence (AI) was and what it could become. While there were a few related ETFs, AI was just another one of the long-term investment themes.
Both supply and demand of workers will prevent a surge in unemployment rates.
The recent rate pause by the Federal Reserve is bringing optimism to the capital markets that interest rates may finally head lower. In turn, it’s pushing yields down. Conversely, bond prices rallied in November, which should help bring investors back to the market.
Investors need to understand the potential physical damage from natural hazards before they can assess their financial implications.
Insurance is making national headlines in 2023 as major providers retreat from writing new policies in large parts of the country and renewal premium prices skyrocket.
The real world and the digital world are converging every day and becoming increasingly interconnected, and where the two intersect is described by some as “phygital.”
Markets improved last month across the board as interest rates pulled back on signs of slowing growth. U.S. markets were up by high-single to low-double digits, while international markets were also up by high-single digits.
New home prices are much lower than a year ago. The average price of a new home sold in October was 10.4% lower, while the median price was down 17.6%.
Our forecast for the federal funds rate has the Federal Reserve (Fed) starting to cut rates in July 2024, with a second rate cut before the end of 2024.
The global economy is still overwhelmingly powered by fossil fuels, with more than 80% of primary energy sourced from coal, oil, and gas, as of 2021.
Among Asia’s major economies, China has long been the benchmark against which other countries’ growth is measured. India, currently the continent’s third-largest economy behind China and Japan, appears poised to take the baton of economic growth leadership.
Valuations for municipal bonds are very attractive right now. And as yields remain strong, so do their fundamentals.
Money markets paid nothing. The dividend yield for the S&P 500 Index was 2%, and the 10-Year Treasury yield was stuck between 2%-3%.
The Canadian economy is buckling under the weight of higher interest rates, household debt and immigration.
The long-standing economic consensus that interest rates would remain low indefinitely, making debt cost-free, is no longer tenable. Even if inflation declines, soaring debt levels, deglobalization, and populist pressures will keep rates higher for the next decade than they were in the decade following the 2008 financial crisis.
Our outlook for 2024 is for a gradual U-shaped recovery composed of seemingly chaotic movements in economic data with turning points in policy rates and earnings growth.
Our portfolio managers field some tough questions on Pacific Tiger’s performance, its positioning and what they believe are its unique strengths for investors.
November was kind to fixed income investors as bonds posted their best month of 2023. High yield corporate debt participated in that rally as highlighted by the fact that the largest junk bond exchange traded fund is higher by nearly 4.3% over the past month.
For much of 2023, the market has tried to anticipate a Fed pivot – only to be wrongfooted several times. However, sharply higher interest rates, cooling inflation pressures and moderating wages have the market convinced that the Fed’s current tightening cycle is over.
The dearth of homes for sale has underpinned the housing market’s surprising resilience and may further lift home prices despite reduced affordability.
With more than 3,000 ETFs to cover and many new ones launching each month, it is easy to forget. For many people, S&P 500 Index-based ETFs remain the core of their portfolio. Heading into 2024, these products topped the latest monthly flow leaderboard.
Trench warfare in the early 20th century has been described as long periods of boredom punctuated by moments of terror.
I previously discussed a slate of recessionary indicators with high correlations to recessionary onsets. However, as we head into 2024, many Wall Street economists predict a “soft landing” or “no recession” outcome for the economy.
