Recession risk remains elevated, likely only receding with a fuller "pivot" in tariff-related uncertainty. While every recession is unique, history can provide a guide.
Think of the drafting process like investing—scouts meticulously rank players based on their strength, speed, flexibility, and mental acuity, much like we analyze the economy and financial markets to shape our outlook. The true value of these players might take years to unfold...
The markets rebounded strongly last week, holding ground despite the lingering cloud of uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade negotiations. Importantly, while tariffs and dollar weakness are stirring short-term concerns, long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored, setting a strong case for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates.
As we have written…The Era of Easy Everything is ending. Part of this involves bringing inflation back to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%. We could debate that number, but the Fed is getting closer.
While most market watchers have focused on the wildly yo-yoing stock market over the last few weeks, the Treasury bond market has been flashing warnings.
Small-caps have suffered in early 2025, but increased market breadth could support a recovery.
There are plenty of frustrated silver bugs. Gold is outperforming once again, and they wonder when silver will finally catch up.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation, evaluates three major defense companies—General Dynamics (GD), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and RTX (formerly Raytheon/United Technologies)—through the lens of FAST Graphs, a fundamentals-based research tool. He emphasizes that this analysis should be just the beginning of deeper due diligence.
American leaders are now engaged in an effort to reverse the loss of manufacturing. The hope is to restore a path to prosperity for struggling regions and their residents. Tariffs are being employed liberally as a means to this end.
Peak earnings season kicks off this week, with 7,600 companies, or 70% of our equity universe expected to report over the next three weeks.
Although President Trump has said he has no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell, the Trump administration may be testing the laws underpinning Fed independence.
The Fed’s in a bind. Policy uncertainty is high. And tariffs are likely to hit the U.S. economy with a “stagflation-lite” impulse in coming quarters—weaker growth and higher prices.
Local currency rates and FX screen very attractive, while hard currency credit is neutral+.
With uncertainty rising and credit markets flashing early warning signs, RBA explains why now might be the time to sidestep risk—and where investors can still find attractive, high-quality returns in fixed income.
President Donald Trump’s recent executive order revives many of the SDI’s ambitions, albeit with a modern twist. His January 27 directive launched what he first called an “Iron Dome for America,” later rebranded as the “Golden Dome.”
High-yield bonds may be an attractive choice for investors looking to rebalance portfolios.
Unexpected wider and larger-scope tariff announcements have sent tremors through bond and equity markets, resulting in a brisk sell-off that signals investors’ caution.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Are you a “speculator” or an “investor”? This is an essential question that every individual deploying capital into the financial markets must answer. The reason is that how you answer that question determines how you should behave during market cycles.
Historically the United States dollar strengthens when U.S. Treasury yields rise. But the reverse happened in April after the White House announced widespread tariffs.
I don’t believe the current level of tariffs will be maintained. I think most of them will be walked back, and the country will adapt to, say, a 10% tariff here and there. The Chinese (and a few other countries) tariffs are different in that they will have a more significant impact.
Five pivotal U.S. economic considerations, including tariffs, monetary policy, fiscal policy, debt overhang, and demographics, are aligning to depress economic growth for the balance of this year and into 2026.
U.S. policy uncertainty and the ebbs and flows of AI advancement are likely to stoke continued volatility in the world’s stock markets.
In the Middle Ages, a common form of punishment was some form of mutilation, which included cutting off the nose of a prisoner or purposefully marring one’s own appearance before the arrival of conquering armies
Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida shares three charts highlighting possible macro inflection points in the business cycle: from growth and inflation to debt and labor.
There's a tectonic shift unfolding in global finance—subtle in appearance, but profound in implication. The traditional signposts of market anxiety—stocks, bonds, even crypto—are being bypassed in favor of something far older: gold.
The US is running a substantial net trade deficit with the European Union (EU). Europe has a surplus—but with more exports at risk, it also has the weaker position in a potential trade conflict.
Investors are currently using leveraged ETFs to embrace market volatility, particularly in disruptive technology.
This week's economic data revealed a split in the housing market. New home sales unexpectedly surged while existing home sales declined.
Tax planning for high-income earners isn’t about loopholes; it’s about leveraging the strategies available to you.
A well-planned defensive strategy can position equity portfolios to be resilient in a very harsh market environment.
Asia-Pacific will likely be the hardest hit region from a steep increase in U.S. tariffs.
Downgrades and defaults can detract from corporate bond portfolio performance. Let’s look at how applying fundamental credit research may help reduce these risks.
A raft of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US could bruise China’s export revenues in the short term. But its domestically focused economic engine and shrinking dependency on US trade should minimize fallout in the long run.
Many retirees hold substantial assets in traditional IRAs and taxable brokerage accounts. When planning for retirement income and considering your legacy, Roth IRA conversions can be a strategic way to reduce your tax burden and maximize the wealth you pass on to your heirs.
Risk-assets struggled amidst extremely volatile price action as investors weighed the probabilities of tariffs hitting profits and valuations.
How our open platform of best-of-breed managers allows us to distill complexity in the face of market turbulence by tapping into their collective intelligence.
A tax-advantaged account offers certain tax benefits to encourage individuals to save or invest for specific purposes, such as retirement, education or healthcare. These accounts can help you lower your taxable income, defer taxes or avoid taxes altogether if used for qualified expenses.
A historic sell-off enhances value, with high yields, strong fundamentals, and ample reserves mitigating policy risks.
As major tech firms like Apple and Microsoft report, they face questions about the impact of tariffs. Q1 results may be discounted, with strength seen as pre-tariff demand.
Uncertainty surrounding trade policy is a key driver of our forecast this quarter, which includes an increased probability of a recession.
Even with tariff uncertainty, there’s no stopping the engine of ETF creation. More than 288 new ETFs have already launched this year.
A fundamental lesson in finance is a security’s price should be the present value of all future cash flows.
Recent volatility has pushed yields to historically high levels, potentially creating opportunities in municipal bonds, especially for higher-net-worth investors.
The bond market has been extremely volatile the past couple of weeks since the introduction of global tariffs by the US. Bond yields have sold off almost 50 basis points, and today we'd like to examine why did that occur, what's next, and how should investors think about duration in this environment?
President Trump has been a vocal admirer of China’s Great Wall, built by the country’s emperors to protect their territory from outside aggression. In his first term, he compared his plan to build a border wall with that historic structure.
Coming off a wild ending to a disappointing first quarter, investors must navigate unsettled capital markets and decipher a wave of incoming policy news.
Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam notes with volatility on the rise, maintaining a long-term view is key.
During periods of market volatility and declines, investors get concerned. They question their long-term objectives and whether they have more risk in their portfolios than they can tolerate. These are reasonable thoughts to have at times like these.
While gold has offered some protection during stock market downturns by either rising or declining by less than equities, its current high price levels and historical patterns suggest that future returns may be limited.
