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Home Prices Have Been Rising for 3 Months, but Nobody has Been Telling You
Over the last 3 months, prices are up in 90 of the 97 markets we analyzed. The average price increase over the last 3 months is 1.1%, or a 4.5% annual rate. This is big news, so why isn't anyone else reporting it? It is because most price indexes are at least 3 months behind what's happening with home prices right now. The Burns Home Value Index (BHVI) gives you a 3-month competitive advantage. We developed the BHVI to answer the question, "What is happening to home prices today?" The answer is, "Home prices are rising!"
Monthly Investment Commentary
by Team of Litman Gregory,
We recently spoke with portfolio managers from two fund management teamsChris Davis and Ken Feinberg of Clipper and Selected American Shares, and Pat English of FMIwho have historically exhibited different views toward banks and financial services firms. In addition to providing insight on current risks and opportunities in the financial sector, the interview touches on a number of topical subjects including the Federal Reserve, the European debt situation, and the housing market.
Economic Insights: Fear, Bank Lending, and Fed Frustrations
by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett,
The Fed recently released the results of its latest survey of senior bank officers. Like the economy, the bankers' attitudes were mixed. Things have improved over the past year. Bankers on balance have shown a greater willingness to extend credit. But still, they remain very cautious. Understandable after the losses of 200809, this lingering reluctance to lend offers yet another explanation as to why this economy's recovery has proceeded so slowly to date, and will likely continue to do so for some time to come. Still, there are tentative signs that the environment is easing.
A Tale of Two Tech Sectors
March is a fitting time to talk about tech because it is the month when investors witnessed the infamous noise heard round the world: the bursting of the dot-com bubble 12 years ago. And while their ears might still be ringing from the blast, when it comes to tech stocks, a little perspective goes a long way. In 1999, irrationally bullish sentiment drove tech valuations to lofty heights with little regard for actual profits. Today, the tech sector is among the most attractive and fundamentally sound areas of the economy.
Postcards from the Edge: Central Banking in the Age of Policy Extremes
Major developed world central banks have taken extraordinary action over the last few years, leaving us in uncharted territory, close to the edge with little experience or history to rely on. The move to todays extremes was forced by the impotence of conventional monetary policy tools, as well as the breadth and depth of the crisis-causing issues. Uncertainty about the probabilities and range of possible outcomes resulting from current extremes has, and will, impact both capital markets and decision making in the real economy.
Chinas Stability Gambit
Given centuries of turmoil in China, todays leaders will do everything in their power to preserve political, social, and economic stability. That is why they removed Bo Xilai, the powerful Party Secretary of Chongqing, just before a major conference that attacked the economic model that he personified.
Heard the One About a "Fiscal Cliff"?
For three years the market has suffered from a severe case of economic hypochondria. Headline after headline proclaimed that this time, for sure, the recession would return. All of these have come and goneand yet the recovery is three years old. Now, some doomsayers are pointing ahead to a fiscal cliff in 2013. Bottom line: expect to hear more about the fiscal cliff for the next several months. Then, when it doesnt cause a recession, youll never hear about it again.
And Thats The Week That Was
by Ron Brounes of Brounes & Associates,
Europe takes a well-deserved back seat to the global headlines as all eyes shift to China to see how the country deals with its recent economic slowdown. Consumer activity is on the hot seat domestically as a key confidence gauge is released and analysts closely dissect personal income and spending data in light of the sudden pickup in the labor market. The markets continue to test key levels as investors weigh the low yields in fixed income against the current risk in equities. Hows that speaking tour treating you, Dr. B.? Any Ron Paul sightings?
A False Sense of Security
by John P. Hussman of Hussman Funds,
As we examine the present evidence relating to both the financial markets and the global economy, the aspect that strikes us most is the extent to which Wall Street continues to emphasize superficially positive data in preference for deeper analysis, to extrapolate short-term distortions as if they were long-term trends, and to misconstrue freshly printed wallpaper and thin supporting ice as if they were solid walls and floors.
Are We Approaching a Second Banking Crisis?
So, even though we saw healthy growth and returns to investors over this time requiring patience during the credit crunch of 2008 when returns were negative the market has built up a large base of holders to offset the lack of primary dealers holding net positions. It still brings to bear whether these positions have been measured for duration risk in case of higher rates as we have discussed many times before; however, demand for yield and risk aversion has at least tempered the loss of primary dealers utilizing capital.
Weekly Market Commentary
Hard data hasnt been collected, but its a safe bet that we waste more food and energy resources than we think. A green boom is a common dialogue amongst some communities but, not universal. In fact, green technology is often a luxury that only wealthy nations can talk about. And yet with so much money being wasted, there are no permanent solutions for spreading the bounty. Alternative energy and agricultural science are in their gestational periods, historically, and far from being the immediate solution to environment mis-management.
Patience
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
I continue to exercise patience with the equity markets while I sit on the cash raised over the past number of weeks. Unlike many, I consider cash an asset class. Indeed, to assume the investment opportunity sets that are available to you today are better than ones that will present themselves next week or next month is nave. To take advantage of those opportunity sets one needs to have some cash. For those wishing to be more aggressive, it looks to me as if the U.S. dollar is in the process of breaking down.
Overcoming Objections to Equities
So what are some of the improved economic conditions that have been pushing yields higher? We have devoted quite a bit of space in recent weeks to discussing the improvements in the labor market, and while jobs growth is certainly among the most important economic indicators, there are other factors that have been showing signs of improvement as well. Debt deleveraging remains a source of concern, but we have been seeing progress on that front. Individuals have been paying down their debt over the past few years and household debt levels have been falling noticeably.
Weekly Commentary & Outlook
Stocks were subdued last week, as concerns about the growth prospects of the economy overtook the recent trend in the media to portray everything as being on the upswing. As the charts above illustrate, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.2% while the NASDAQ Composite held forth with a marginal gain for the week.
Eye on Myanmar
by Xin Jiang of Matthews Asia,
Since the U.S. declared that the Asia-Pacific region is America's new priority, its strategic moves in Southeast Asia have included the notable visit to Myanmar in December by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The visit was generally viewed as an endorsement of the reform processes that Myanmar has slowly begun to roll out over the past year or so. On my recent trip there, I was able to take a first-hand look at some of these developments.
Global Listed Infrastructure - February 2012 Review & Outlook
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
We have a positive near-term outlook for infrastructure securities based on improving U.S. economic data and stabilizing credit conditions in Europe. But our optimism remains tempered by rising sovereign debt levels in Europe and the United States and a likely protracted period of economic hardship in the European periphery. Emerging markets are likely to be somewhat stronger, in our view, driven by better structural demand and monetary easing. For this reason, we have increased our investments in Brazil, China and Mexico.
Closed End Funds - February 2012 Review and Outlook
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
The U.S. economic picture has brightened since the fall of 2011, and we expect the trend to continue. We are also encouraged by progress in Europe, as economic austerity measures will likely weigh meaningfully on the regions growth. In this period of extended easy monetary policy by the Fed, we believe the yield advantage of leveraged closed-end funds will continue to draw investor interest. The success of recent IPOs should bode well for closed-end fund issuance in 2012, although we do not believe new supply will pressure pricing in the secondary market or impede discount narrowing.
Diversification at the Core
The late Sir John Templeton was certainly a champion of diversifying ones basket of investments. And so is Tucker Scott, portfolio manager for Templeton Global Equity Group and manager of Templeton Foreign Fund. Diversification is at the core of his investment strategy. A summary of his recent remarks: We try to find stocks that we believe are undervalued, then build a portfolio thats well-diversified by industry and by country. We try to limit position sizes in an attempt to help limit potential stock-specific risk.
Is There Still Income in Fixed Income Today?
by Joni Clark of Loring Ward,
The extraordinary performance of fixed income investments in the past few years resulted from a combination of slow economic growth, low inflation and aggressive intervention by the Federal Reserve. These unusual factors are unlikely to be repeated over the next 30 years, and these unexpected returns simply cannot reoccur.
Emerging Markets Real Estate Securities - Investment Review & Outlook February 2012
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
As emerging economies work through the late stages of a mid-cycle slowdown, policy markets are attempting to engineer soft landings as inflation pressures continue to moderate. Given the potential for better domestic growth in such an environment, we expect to take advantage of buying opportunities among residential developers. Our favored markets include Brazil, based on its natural resources, growing consumption trends and shareholder-friendly business environment. We particularly like the retail market, which continues to exhibit strong fundamentals.
Europe Investment Review & Outlook February 2012
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Europes difficult grapple with its fiscal crises has made for a negative macroeconomic backdrop, and we expect a moderate recession as a base-case scenario for the region. The recent LTRO facilities have prevented a severe credit crunch and collapse of the EU banking system. However, we take the view that this three-year program merely buys time to sort out the overleveraged balance sheets of most EU banks; it does not solve the long-term solvency crisis facing Greece and possibly Portugal.
ECRI Indicators Improve, But Beware the ''Yo-Yo Years''
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came in at -0.4 in today's public release of the data through March 16th. This is the tenth consecutive week of improvement (less negative) data for the Growth Index and the highest level (i.e., least negative) since August 12th of last year. The underlying WLI also improved, increasing from an adjusted 125.0 to 125.7 (see the fourth chart below).
Large Cap Value Strategy February 2012 Review & Outlook
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Our near-term outlook for the U.S. economy and markets is increasingly favorable, as several of our long-term concerns appear to be easing. Economic indicators are strengthening, the danger of a eurozone collapse has receded and earnings reports for 2011 have been good. Valuations remain attractive, if somewhat less so than a few months ago, and investors are poised to put their considerable cash balances back to work. Cyclical names and sectors are most likely to lead the rally over the next few months.
Regressing to the Mean Asset Values Returning to Low Correlations
Asset values are finally marching, once again, to the beat of their own drummers. This is a welcome change of tune. Among the many investing challenges of the past few yearsbeyond the aftermath of a near-meltdown of the financial system and a global economy that went into a deep recessionwas the high degree of correlation among different assets. Assets moved in tandem, whether in lockstep or with inverse moves, based largely on risk on/risk off investment decisions. Concerned about Europe? Sell stocks, buy bonds. Think the EU ministers will reach a deal? Buy stocks, sell bonds.
A Random Walk Through the Data Minefields
We are once again to a point in Europe where there are no good choices, only very bad ones. But this time it is with a country that actually makes a difference. (No slight intended to Greece, but you are just small.) Spain has no good way to cut its deficit without things getting worse. But Europe must be willing to then fund Spanish debt, even if "only" through more LTRO actions by the ECB.
Gold and China: Where the Bulls and Bears Square Off
To paraphrase the great Steve Martin, todays investors are very passionate people and passionate people tend to overreact at times. An overreaction is exactly whats happened in gold and global markets in recent weeks. While market bulls have been sniffing out data points to support their case, market bears have continued to take a glass-half-empty approach. Gold and China are two areas that have been caught in the bear trap this week, but we believe the gold and China bulls still have room to run.
Preferred Securities - February 2012 Review and Outlook
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
We are encouraged by the trajectory of U.S. economic data and credit trends, as well as positive developments in Europe that have somewhat brightened the outlook for risk assets. However, we are closely monitoring various macro risks that could weigh on the global economic recovery, including a recession in Europe, high oil prices and slowing growth in China. Our portfolio remains more heavily weighted towards domestic issuers and is somewhat conservative relative to credit. That said, we continue to add to certain European issues and other higher-beta securities.
International Real Estate Securities- Investment Review & Outlook - February 2012
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
International real estate securities added to their year-to-date gains in February, although the pace of the rally moderated. Most markets in Europe and Asia Pacific continued to benefit from the retreat of macro risk concerns. Europes difficult grapple with its fiscal crises has made for a negative macroeconomic backdrop, and we expect a moderate recession as a base-case scenario for the region. Given this environment, we seek to invest in companies that are best able to shield themselves from the most adverse effects of slowing economies and a general deleveraging.
U.S. Real Estate Securities - February 2012 Review & Outlook
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
We are encouraged by the recent trend of U.S. economic data showing measured improvement, including solid employment gains, as well as positive developments in Europe that have somewhat brightened the outlook for risk assets globally. With funding costs likely to remain low and demand showing signs of strengthening, we believe U.S. real estate fundamentals will continue to gradually improve in 2012, supported by a scarcity of new supply in most markets.
Global Real Estate Securities Investment Review and Outlook February 2012
by Team of Cohen & Steers,
Global real estate securities added to their year-to-date gains in February, although the pace of the rally moderated. Most markets in Europe and Asia Pacific continued to benefit from the retreat of macro risk concerns. U.S. REITs, which advanced in 2011 while other regions struggled, had a modest decline.
Whats Next for Equities?
In 2011, the S&P 500 finished essentially flat on a price-return basis. That return, however, would not have been achieved without a 15% gain over the last three months of the year. Equities have since picked up where they left off and, year-to-date, most major indices are up by double digits. Front-of-mind for investors is whether this momentum can be maintained. We offer the bear and bull cases as well as our thoughts on what may lie ahead.
The Republican Budget Proposal: Reading the Tea Leaves
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
While budget plans from Republicans and Democrats are generally at odds, the differences between the parties current proposals are particularly stark and provide evidence for Russ forecast for the global market this year: Two quarters of sun, followed by a chance of severe thunderstorms in the fourth quarter.
The Case for Chinese Stocks
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Chinas recent lowering of its growth target made some investors nervous that the country may be in for a period of sluggish growth. Russ, however, believes that a hard landing can be avoided, and he continues to advocate overweighting Chinese equities for three reasons.
Regulated Energy: Rise and Shine
Regulated energy companies natural gas pipes, gas utilities and electric utilities have generally been seen as the sleepy cousins of more exciting energy subsectors like exploration and production, or coal extraction and production. But we have witnessed a number of events and regulatory developments in recent years that we believe are re-energizing the regulated energy subsector, more clearly distinguishing it from other members of the energy sector family and providing the potential for an abundance of opportunity for astute investors.
Explaining the Stir over Recent Fed-Speak
by Team of American Century Investments,
The official statement from the Federal Reserves March 13 interest rate policy committee meeting was relatively ho-hum (no significant changes from Januarys statement), but other recent Fed communications have raised more of a stir. In particular, we explain what fiscal cliff and sterilized QE mean, and help put them into context. Its all part of a mixed, uncertain economic outlook in which slower mid-year growth, like last year, cant be ruled out, but higher inflation by next year is also a possibility.
Special Report Oil - "Nothing to Spare?"
by Team of Erste Group Research,
We see the risks for the oil price heavily skewed to the upside. At the moment, the market is well supplied, but the smouldering crisis in the Persian Gulf could easily push oil prices to new all-time-highs should it escalate. We believe that new all-time-highs can be reached in H1, at which point we could see demand destruction setting in. We forecast an average oil price (Brent) of USD 123 per barrel between now and March 2013.
Why Gold Can Go the Distance
Golds been knocked down lately, but several enduring factors have conditioned the yellow metal for an inevitable comeback. Since the beginning of 2012, gold has trailed its precious metals peers, gaining only about 6 percent compared to double-digit returns for silver and platinum. At the end of February, gold was especially hard hit, following Ben Bernankes announcement that there would be no additional quantitative easing and the European Central Bank offering additional LTRO loans to banks.
Brazil Retail Sector Riding the Wave of Middle Class Growth
by Team of Thomas White International,
Even in the late 1990s, Brazil was just like any other emerging economy, characterized by extremes of wealth and abject poverty with no social class dividing the bridge between. A decade and more down the line, the effervescence in the middle cannot be missed. Yes, the great Brazilian middle class defined as those who earn between $690 and $2,970 a month has arrived and is here to stay. If Brazil has made a name in the global retail sector, it had better thank these late comers, empowered with good purchasing power and access to credit.
Dont Wait Too Long to Inflation-Proof Your Portfolio
by Kevin D. Mahn of Hennion & Walsh,
Most media outlets, in addition to the Fed, focus on core inflation readings. We think that this could be very misleading because mainstream America does not have the luxury of excluding food and energy from their everyday lives. Hence, if food and energy prices are rising (and not being picked up by the core inflation readings), Americans are likely to have less disposable income, unless commensurate increases in wages occur to offset the price increases. Less disposable income generally leads to lower overall consumer sentiment/confidence which translates into lower consumer spending.
Reflections: Expect the Unexpected
by John Gilbert of GR-NEAM,
The tides of financial returns ebb and flow, and for the moment, they are flowing. Since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the deflationary forces of excessive indebtedness prevail for a while, and then are beaten back by the determination of popularly elected governments to reflate. The financial markets no longer reward skill, so much as they react to the relative strength of governments will to offset contraction.
Why Convertible Bonds Should Be Part of Your Asset Allocation
Im going to let you hear from Greg Miller about convertible bonds. Not only will Greg tell you how they work, but also why they can be an important diversification technique in your portfolio even now when other types of bonds are falling out of favor. I believe that many of you will want to have convertible bonds in your portfolio before long. The interest rate increases weve seen over the last couple of weeks may be a sign that the long bull market in traditional bonds is rolling over to the downside. Convertible bonds offer opportunity even during periods of rising interest rates!
What Goes Up Must Come Down!
by James Montier of GMO,
Whilst we at GMO fret over evidence of the strained nature of profit margins, the ever bullish Wall Street analysts expect profit margins to continue to rise! Witness Exhibit 4. In our search for evidence of a structural break, this simple-minded extrapolation gives us some comfort because the Wall Street consensus has a pretty good record of being completely and utterly wrong.
Money Market Fund Reforms The Debate
by Guy Holbrook of Columbia Management,
When looking back over the last few years at the money market sector it clearly has been a tumultuous period for an industry that had traditionally been viewed as stable and secure, all while providing daily liquidity for shareholders. It became evident, however, when the Reserve Primary Fund Broke the Buck in 2008 that safeguards needed to be enacted in order to protect both shareholders and the industry. There are currently three main schools of thought being debated when it comes to potential additional reforms ahead for the Money Market industry.
Falling Treasuries: A Currency Perspective
by Axel Merk of Merk Investments,
What are the implications for the U.S. dollar and investors portfolios if bond prices continue to fall, as they have of late? Within that context, should investors care whether the U.S. retains its status as a reserve currency? Should it effect the way investors think about their own cash reserves?
Trade Rains on the Jobs Parade
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital,
Back in the late 1980s, when annual trade and budget deficits were but a small fraction of today's levels, the markets were rightly concerned about America's ability to sustain its twin deficits. This anxiety helped lead to the stock market crash of 1987. More recently, large and persistent trade deficits were a significant factor in building the imbalances that caused the U.S. economy to implode in 2008. But in recent years, most Americans have lost their concern with gaping trade deficits. I believe it will soon come back with a vengeance.
The Scarcity of Income: A Hobsons Choice
The post-global financial crisis environment has resulted in rock-bottom yields for U.S. Treasuries and other sovereign debt deemed to be either liquid or low risk. This situation leaves income seekers in some markets with a negative real yield (inflation adjusted), which could become more manifest during periods of rising interest rates in eventually recovering global economies. Alternatively, these investors may want to consider migrating a portion of their asset allocation to less senior income-producing securities.
US Treasuries: This is the End?
by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog,
Last week, the US Treasury market suffered its worst losing streak since 2006. This rapid rise in yields has prompted investors to wonder whether the 30 year rally in bonds is finally coming to an end, and if so how high will rates rise? The answer may surprise you.
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