Two things are worth considering that will dramatically impact the stats moving forward, and neither of them existed as a factor a generation ago. Alternatives to a four-year degree are getting more government support too. Workforce Pell Grants, once reserved for traditional colleges, now extend to short-term job-training programs.
US 10-year Treasury yields have climbed roughly 50-basis points since the start of 2026. This is not an inflation scare. Despite the sharp rise in energy prices following the outbreak of war with Iran, market-based measures of medium-term inflation expectations have drifted lower.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. As of July 2026, the latest Q-ratio is at 1.83.
Based on July's S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 43.8 is 184% above its arithmetic mean, 212% above its geometric mean, and is in the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
The inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 211% above its long-term trend at the end of July.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
The S&P 500 capped off its best week since April with a record close, ultimately finishing with a gain of 3.6%.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In July, total nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%.
Morningstar research shows ETF investors gave up 1.2 points a year to poor timing, a gap advisors can help clients close through discipline.
The latest employment report showed that 23,000 jobs were shed in July, compared to June's 20,000 gain. This figure was significantly lower than the projected addition of 85,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is setting up a reinsurance vehicle with Talcott Financial Group that has so far raised $1 billion.
After spending much of the year in the stock market doghouse over fears about their profligate spending on artificial intelligence, the world’s biggest technology companies are suddenly leading the way once again.
US Treasuries rallied after data showed employers unexpectedly cut jobs in July, suggesting labor market challenges that could impact the Federal Reserve’s willingness to raise interest rates.
Gold jumped more than 3% after an unexpected contraction in the US jobs market, extending a rebound from its slump below $4,000 an ounce.
Given America’s political environment, you would be forgiven for thinking the country has slipped into a dark age of energy recidivism; burning oil, gas and coal left and right; and tossing wind and solar farms on the scrap heap.
The S&P 500 was flat in July 2026 as semiconductors fell 29%, energy gained nearly 13% on higher oil, and long-term Treasury yields reached their highest levels since 2007.
A good financial plan may bring together every aspect of your financial life into a coordinated strategy, providing a clear view of where you are today and helping you prepare for where you want to go. By understanding your complete financial picture, you can make informed decisions that align with your goals, values, and long-term priorities.
Investors remain cautious despite bullish positioning, as rotations curb speculation while record margin debt and high equity allocations raise longer-term risks.
As many of you know, our team at Smead Capital Management has studied the thinking and investment careers of Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett. In today’s Go-Go artificial intelligence-dominated stock market, we’d like to walk you through the concept of the Circle of Competence.
In this article, Russ Koesterich explains how the recent market rotation has pressured tech stocks while creating an attractive long-term buying opportunity.
A clear-eyed view of past experience shows that where wealth taxes have been tried, they have usually been abandoned—and for good reason. As policymakers in California, New York, France, and elsewhere revisit this old idea, they should heed the lessons of this history.
Investors are warming to systematic processes in bond markets. In this new approach, a dynamic multifactor process drives the investment decisions, using predictive factors with demonstrable links to outperformance.
Reducing or eliminating debt might feel like the ultimate financial milestone, but paying off debt early – or avoiding it entirely – can limit future opportunities for building or preserving wealth. During periods of volatility, it may be tempting to get rid of debt for short-term relief, but this could compromise your long-term plan. Staying the course may be crucial to your goals – no matter the market.
Discover why higher Treasury yields, strong ETF demand, and active management are creating new opportunities in muni bonds for advisors.
Given the current state of inflation and interest rates, it’s probable that many advisors and investors are considering alternative ways of fostering income within their portfolios.
Reflecting on the first half of 2026 provides a clear roadmap to strategize for the remainder of the year. Before that can occur, however, it’s imperative to check the pulse on the current state of the market and posit what may happen next.
A growing number of investors from the US to South Korea are using leveraged exchange-traded funds for long-term investing, a far cry from the day trading they were designed for.
Alphabet Inc. is looking to raise as much as $25 billion from its latest US investment-grade bond offering, a deal that will test investor appetite for AI-related debt following a July selloff.
Finding a place to stash the keys to your cryptocurrency hoard has never been easier, thanks to options that run from putting them in a retired Swiss nuclear bunker to the humdrum use of digital-asset exchanges. It’s also never been harder to keep them safe from thieves.
On Wall Street, money speaks louder than words. The way Big Oil is currently allocating dollars suggests the supermajors are, quietly, preparing for leaner times. It’s the right approach: Oil is a cyclical business, and lower prices are always around the corner. This time, they may be even closer.
Richard Driehaus, the late Chicago money manager who helped popularize momentum investing, took exception to the mantra of buy low, sell high.
While the outcome of the July FOMC meeting itself was in line with expectations, the aftermath has proven to be far more challenging for the money and bond markets, especially for longer-dated maturities, a.k.a. duration. Investors, as well as Fed Chairman Warsh, have quickly discovered something we have been highlighting about over the last few months: a lack of forward guidance can have unintended consequences.
Investors worried about highly appreciated stock positions and the related capital gains exposure may avoid transitioning concentrated portfolios to more diversified tax-managed solutions. In our view, a multiphase transition may enable them to strike a balance between how fast concentration risk is diversified and the size of their annual tax bill.
In the span of a few weeks, a new college student takes on loan debt, gets their first credit card offer, and starts managing daily expenses on their own. They're buying groceries, splitting costs with roommates, saying yes to things they probably can't afford yet. No other period of life throws that many financial decisions at someone with that little experience.
On Wednesday afternoon the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting, and stocks buckled: the Dow fell 1,153 points, its worst day since April of last year.
Only about 20–25% of financial Advisors have a formal, documented succession plan, despite the fact that more than a third, managing roughly 40% of industry assets, plan to retire within the next decade. That gap is more than a retirement problem.
By repeatedly describing standard inflation gauges as “imperfect measures of underlying inflation,” Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has pushed a long-running technical debate into the center of the policy conversation: What is the best way to measure underlying inflation?
This year has offered a vivid reminder of how quickly market conditions can shift—from policy uncertainty, to a sharp geopolitical shock, to a focus on an AI-driven rally. As the themes of the day changed, the case for an overlay persisted.
When we talk about inflation, we usually focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation measure is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index. What’s the difference and why does the Fed prefer the PCE?
Bitcoin's closing price was roughly flat this week, up around 0.3%. BTC is currently down approximately 27% year-to-date and sits about 49% below its October 2025 record high.
The AI question is not really a technology question for your firm; it is a documentation question wearing a technology costume. Your advisors are already using it, and the SEC has already told you it is watching how you handle it. The only open question is whether, when an examiner asks, you can show your work.
Outlining clear expectations for success — desired outcomes that are both quantifiable and qualitative. It means setting objectives to meet these desired outcomes every week and then checking in to see to see if they met them.
This article is the first in a series about implementing AI while maintaining rigorous data regulation and governance practices. It’s no secret that the SEC understands the tectonic fracturing felt throughout the advisory space. How is the SEC adapting for AI implementation among RIA firms?
One of my most controversial opinions is that the 401(k) is one of the great financial inventions of the 20th century. It is not a view shared by many people — including, apparently, the inventor himself, Ted Benna, who argues that the 401(k) has mainly benefited the wealthy.
The US Treasury on Wednesday retained its previous guidance for future debt issuance, signaling no change in note and bond auction sizes well into 2027 even as federal borrowing needs climb.
Investors hanging onto SpaceX shares after a plunge below their IPO price are bracing for the next potential hit, when $101 billion worth of stock becomes available for trading on Thursday.
High-net-worth investors and institutional managers continue to allocate heavily to muni bond ETFs to lock in attractive yields.
Developing economies must move fast in adopting artificial intelligence for their governments and businesses, the World Bank said, urging countries to adapt existing tools to local needs.
July 2026 was a flattish month for markets. The S&P 500 index was down slightly. Value did well, while momentum did poorly. Smallcaps, midcaps, and emerging markets, all of which have been the year’s best performers, had a bad month. Commodities, driven largely by oil prices, led the pack, as the fragile ceasefire in Iran failed to hold.
